Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wainwright, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s and 40s below zero will continue through Monday afternoon.

- Above 1500ft temperatures will largely be in the teens and single digits below zero.

- Clouds move in Monday night into Tuesday with some light snow possible, especially west of the Fairbanks metro. This will limit the very cold temperatures to teens and 20s below zero.
The rest of the week will see a mix of clouds and clearing.

- North winds to 40 mph in the AK Range Passes through Monday night may result in areas of blowing snow and low visibility along with cold wind chills as low as 50 below zero. Winds will remain breezy into mid week with areas of blowing snow and cold wind chills.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Colder temperatures will give way to slightly milder conditions with clouds and light snow today and tonight. Where skies remain clear with calm winds, temperatures in the Interior Valleys will be around 25F to 35F below zero with single digits above/below zero along the coast. Along the coast, expect temperatures to reach near 20 today with single digits and teens below in the Interior beneath cloud cover.

- There is a slight chance for freezing drizzle at Nome this morning as this system moves across the Seward Peninsula.
Northwest flow aloft will keep upper levels dry, but model soundings are hinting at a robust layer of low level moisture developing, which would likely fall as drizzle.

- The next system will arrive Monday afternoon to the NW Arctic Borough and Northern Seward Peninsula before weakening as it moves southeast through Tuesday. Snow accumulations will be light; generally 1 inch or less, with NW winds 15-25 mph northwest of Kaltag.

- Another system has the potential to bring more significant snowfall to most coastal areas and the Interior beginning Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday, though accumulations do not look to be greater than 4".

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- A more robust area of snow arrives Monday afternoon and continues through Wednesday with light snow and west/northwest winds gusting 20 to 40 mph.
- Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches along the coast with 3 to 6 inches possible in the northern slopes of the Brooks Range.
- Localized blizzard conditions possible, especially along the eastern Arctic coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range by midweek. A Blizzard Watch has been issued for Kaktovik from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
The cold pattern of an upper level high over the Bering Sea and Aleutians and a deep upper low over the eastern Gulf of Alaska looks to persist for the foreseeable future with a few shortwaves moving through the flow, providing temporary relief from the cold temperatures with cloud cover and light snow showers.

At 500 mb, the high center has shifted to just south of Amchitka at 570 dam. A 502 dam low lies south of Yakutat and is reflected at the surface as a 963 mb surface low. A 475 dam low has moved east from Banks Island to the Canadian Archipelago. The southward shift of the high will allow a shortwave from the Chukchi Sea to bring light snow to the Chukchi Coast and Northern Seward Peninsula today and inland to the Western Interior tonight and Tuesday. Models continue to move moisture from this system further and further east, and light snow as far east as Fairbanks by early Tuesday afternoon is not out of the question. Regardless, by Wednesday night, all of the Interior will have seen at least a brief period of cloud cover that will bring temperatures up into the teens and 20s below beneath the cloud cover. Tuesday night still looks very cold and clear east of Delta Junction, but expect clouds even in the SE Interior by Wednesday afternoon.

There is a slight chance for freezing drizzle at Nome this morning as this system moves across the Seward Peninsula. Northwest flow aloft will keep upper levels dry, but model soundings are hinting at a robust layer of low level moisture developing, which would likely fall as drizzle.

A surface low moving south out of the Arctic will bring another round of snow and blowing snow to the Arctic Coast mainly east of Deadhorse Tuesday night and Wednesday. A Blizzard Watch has been issued for Kaktovik and Point Thomson.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Another system similar to today and Tuesday's system will move off the Chukotsk Peninsula to bring light snow to the West Coast on Thursday, spreading into the Interior Thursday night and Friday. This system still does not look to be strong enough to erode the cold air and break down the blocking pattern, so the forecast will remain generally cold with brief warm ups beneath cloud cover. Models are still showing signs of breaking down the cold pattern next weekend, but this may be premature as the timing continues to get pushed back and this is a known model bias.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-805-812-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-808-809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-856-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-850-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.