Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 10:13 PM Moonrise 3:23 AM   Moonset 1:39 PM

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PKZ801 Etolin Strait To Dall Point Out To 15 Nm- 551 Am Akdt Fri May 3 2024
Today - E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Tonight - NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. Sat - N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.Sat night - NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Sun - N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Sun night - NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Mon - W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Tue - SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 031436 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 636 AM AKDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
The North Slope will remain colder than normal with periods of flurries and fog through the weekend. Expect scattered snow showers over the Eastern North Slope late tonight to become numerous snow showers over the Central and Eastern North Slope on Sat into Sun with several inches accumulation. This will cause low visibility in blowing snow from Anaktuvuk Pass East late tonight through Sun AM.

The West Coast and Western Interior will have temperatures warmer than normal through Sat south of Huslia, with cooler than normal from Huslia north. Much colder temperatures will move over the West Coast on Sun and over the Western Interior on Mon. Generally dry conditions over Western AK now will see scattered showers move north over SW AK today, with scattered showers over the Western Interior tonight with scattered to numerous showers of SW AK, then scattered to numerous showers over most of the area other than NW AK on Sat and Sat night, then taper off to isolated to scatted showers on Sun.

The Eastern Interior will see temps cooler than normal north of the White Mountains today, while south of the White Mountains will see southerly Chinook winds blowing across the Alaska Range bringing dry, windy and warmer than normal conditions this evening that will continue through Sat night with the strongest winds late Fri night and Sat AM. Isolated to scattered snow showers will develop over the Northern Interior tonight, and increase to scattered to numerous on Sat and Sat night before becoming isolated to scattered showers over all of the Eastern Interior on Sun. Could see several inches of snow north of the Yukon River from late tonight into Sat night.



DISCUSSION
At 00Z aloft, the NAM and GFS initialize 10-20 meters to low on 500 mb heights over AK south of the Arctic Circle, while the ECMWF and Canadian models initialize well over AK. As a result the Canadian and ECMWF models maintain a slightly stronger ridge aloft over the Interior today through Sat compared to the GFS and NAM, and slightly stronger southerly chinook winds over the Alaska Range today through Sat as well. Other than the Eastern Interior, models show similar solutions aloft through 4am Sun, then the ECMWF. After that time the NAM and GFS move a low aloft from NW Alaska south over the Bering Sea more quickly than the ECMWF and Canadian models with the ECMWF being the slowest solution. Given the better initialization of the ECMWF and Canadian models, favor the ECMWF and Canadian models for features aloft through 4am Sun, then the ECMWF for Sun PM into Mon.

The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over the Beaufort Sea, a ridge over NW Canada Alaska and the Chukchi Sea and a trough over the Bering Sea. A strong short wave dropping south from the Beaufort Sea south over NW AK today and tonight, and another strong short wave moving from the Bering Sea over SW Alaska will cause the long waves to merge over the Beaufort Sea, Western Alaska and the Bering Sea tonight with a ridge over NW Canada and Eastern AK. The trough will move over Western AK on Sat, then become negatively tilted from the Bering Strait to the Gulf of AK on Sun. This will cause southerly Chinook flow aloft across the AK Range to increase today, peaking out late tonight and early Sat, then turning southeast and weakening Sat night and Sun.

With precipitation, will use a blend of models. See above synopsis for details.

At the surface at 06z, models resolve most surface features well except that all models are 2-3 mb too weak on the surface high over the Copper River Basin. Models show similar solutions at the surface through Sun. Will use a blend of the Canadian and ECMWF for surface features through Sun since they are preferred solutions aloft. Will see NE winds 25-35 kt over St Lawrence Is and the Bering Strait, spreading to the Point Hope area today, and spreading to the Western Brooks Range tonight then continuing into Sun. Expect south winds 15 gusting to 25 mph to develop along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range today, increasing to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph tonight then continuing into Sat, then decreasing Sat PM into Sun AM. This could cause near Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction south late this afternoon and Evening, with little RH recovery there tonight, with Red Flag conditions possible there on Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
An Arctic cold front that lies from Eagle to Fairbanks to Norton Sound will move north to Circle to Galena this afternoon, then to Arctic Village to Norton Sound by 4pm Sat, and to Arctic Village to the Yukon Delta by 4pm Sun. Scattered showers will occur along this front this evening and become numerous along the front late tonight and Sat.

A thermal low pressure trough over the Alaska Range will move to Minchumina to Chicken by 4pm Fri and then remain in place through tonight. Temperatures will warm to the upper 50s and lower 60s with RH falling to 20-30 percent along this feature over the Tanana Valley today.

A strong low in the Southern Bering Sea will move to the southeast Bering Sea tonight, into Bristol Bay on Sat and into the Gulf of Alaska on Sun. This will cause southerly Chinook winds develop across the Alaska Range starting late today then continuing into Sat, then decrease Sat night. This will bringing dry, windy and warm conditions to the Tanana Valley this evening through Sat night.
Expect south winds 15 mph gusting to 25 mph to develop along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range today, increasing to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph tonight then continuing into Sat, then decreasing Sat PM into Sun AM. This could cause near Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction south late this afternoon and Evening, with strong winds and little RH recovery there tonight, and then with with Red Flag conditions possible from Delta Junction south on Sat.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected over most of the Eastern Interior on Sun as the Chinook ends.

HYDROLOGY
The Yukon River near Eagle continues to have high water and a minor ice jam in place with ice in place down river from Eagle.
We have kept the SPS in place.

The Tanana River is partially ice free and now flooding is expected.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808-810.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-813-814-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859-861.

Kokechik Bay
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Fri -- 03:40 AM AKDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:44 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:16 AM AKDT     6.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM AKDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:33 PM AKDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:19 PM AKDT     Sunset
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Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

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