Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 10:13 PM Moonrise 4:14 AM   Moonset 2:25 PM

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PKZ726 Southwest Prince William Sound- 406 Am Akdt Fri May 3 2024
Today - NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tonight - SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Sat - E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Sat night - E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Sun - NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon through Tue - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 031329 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 529 AM AKDT Fri May 3 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast for southcentral Alaska remains stratus quo. The first frontal system and associated low that brought rain to Kodiak Island, Coastal Kenai Peninsula, and a few other locations has weakened and shifted out of the area... but is quickly being replaced by another low moving from the far eastern Bering into the Gulf of Alaska. Radar coverage shows precipitation has already intensified a bit across the southern Kenai Peninsula. Strong southeast flow will result in downsloping, dry conditions for much of the western Kenai Peninsula north through Anchorage and much of the Mat-Su Valley. This second system will bring rain a bit farther north than the previous, with locations along the Prince William Sound expected to receive rain (high elevation snow) from later this evening throughout much of the weekend.

Strengthening pressure gradient across the area will yield fairly strong southeast gap winds today and tomorrow, particularly out of the Turnagain Arm and Knik Arm. Wouldn't rule out gusts late today and tomorrow upwards of 30mph in far south Anchorage by Turnagain Arm, as well as up by Palmer/Butte. Temperatures will remain near climatological averages, with highs in the 50s for most of the region and lows in the mid/upper 30s to low 40s.

-Brown

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The Flood Watch for an Ice Jam near Aniak remains in effect through Saturday morning.

The forecast continues to be mostly on track. Showery conditions across much of Southwest Alaska as well as the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians today. Colder air advects into Southwest on Saturday, bringing chances for snow or a rain/snow mix overnight.
Additionally, gusty winds will continue over the next couple of days. From Saturday through Sunday, the triple point low will occlude as it moves over Southwest Alaska. At the same time, an upper low moving into the Bering Sea from the Arctic will bring shot of cold air. Expect rain showers to slowly diminish in coverage through the weekend, with the potential for some snow showers late at night/early in the morning as temperatures reach their daily minimum. Otherwise, daytime heating should keep precipitation as mostly rain. The other hazard to monitor will be the return of light freezing spray along the northern and eastern Bering Sea beginning Saturday night.

-KC/KM

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The broad upper level Bering Sea trough harboring a closed low near St Lawrence Island will be breaking down and moving through the Gulf of Alaska into the Eastern North Pacific by the end of the forecast period. Forecast models demonstrate less confidence in the changing weather pattern through the week. The occasional injection of North Pacific energy and some jetstream support helps bring some significant weather producers across the Aleutians. It also helps draw the Bering low Southward beginning Tuesday. The system forms across the Central Aleutians and continues over the Alaska Peninsula for Thursday. An Eastern Gulf low weakens and moves into the Canadian Provinces as a trough by Wednesday. The upper level ridge weakens but holds on over the Arctic Coast.

Widespread precipitation will be the order of the day across the Western and Central Aleutians for Tuesday, and the Eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and the rest of Southern Alaska to the Canadian Border through the forecast. Additional rainfall should not be a factor with Interior Rivers dealing with ice jams and flooding due to above average snow melt. Locally heaviest rainfall is expected to spread from the Eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, parts of Cook Inlet, Kodiak Island, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and over Prince William Sound for Wednesday and Thursday. The precipitation area continues to spread Eastward along the Gulf through the Weekend.

-Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Confidence is higher today that strong wind out of the Turnagain Arm will reach south Anchorage and the ANC airport. However, the forecast challenge will be with regards to timing. Current thinking is that it'll begin to pick up after noon. The stronger east-to-southeast winds aloft will likely not make it as low as 2000 ft for true low level wind shear, but there may be some wind shear above the 2000 ft level through Friday.

-Brown

Chenega Island
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Fri -- 03:59 AM AKDT     3.81 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:04 AM AKDT     9.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 PM AKDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:59 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:59 PM AKDT     10.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

Eshamy Bay
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Fri -- 03:57 AM AKDT     3.81 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:13 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:06 AM AKDT     10.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:24 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:27 PM AKDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:59 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:01 PM AKDT     10.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

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