Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kodiak, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS Days 1 through 3...

High pressure over the Western Aleutians strengthens as it moves slowly across the Bering Sea side of the Western Aleutians early this week. Its center moves over Adak near mid-week. This results in strong, sustained ridging over the Aleutians with northerly flow through the Eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Mainland into mid-week.

The past twelve hours ending at 4am today: Sustained winds from 30 to 40 mph with wind gusts ranging from 55 to 65 mph were recorded through the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula.
Much weaker winds were recorded elsewhere across the region during this timeframe. The remainder of today through this evening will experience a gradual decrease in sustained winds and gusts through the region.

Tomorrow, as the aforementioned high continues to move slowly eastward, increased Arctic air accompanies a weak wave moving southward into the Alaska Peninsula. This will cause the return to strong winds through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.
Late Tuesday morning, areas from False Pass to Sand Point will begin to see an uptick in their wind gusts (40 to 50 mph) and by the afternoon, this area of higher winds shift to an area from Sand Point to Chignik with gusts ranging from 55 to 65 mph; higher in the bays and passes. These wind gusts continue through early Wednesday morning before subsiding.

Other weather hazards in the next seventy-two hours: Light snow is expected today in the Pribilof Islands through the Eastern Aleutians though accumulations of a trace are expected.
Daytime temperatures will remain in the single digits as cold air continues to advect in to Southwest Mainland. Accompanied by offshore winds, wind chills 20 to 30 degrees below zero are expected. Another cold air mass moves into the Southwest Mainland Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the low single digits above zero with lows in the teens below zero.

-Johnston

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The start of the long term is characterized by an anomalously strong 500 mb ridge that extends from the North Pacific, over the Bering Sea, and well north of the Bering Strait. Over the Gulf, an upper trough continues to dig south and eastward. 850 mb temperature anomalies from the global models suggest that much of Alaska and the Gulf will continue to stay below average, while the Aleutians, the Bering, and perhaps the western Alaska coast will be above average for this time of year. One caveat to the cold weather across Southcentral will be if we see more strong wind events, as increased winds tend to moderate temperatures. However, on clear and calm to light wind nights, expect overnight lows to really bottom out. Models do diverge a bit of the placement of the Bering ridge by the end of the long term, but it looks like none of the global models want to break the pattern down. Expect Southcentral Alaska to remain in a rather cold, dry, and windy pattern for the foreseeable future, with periods of windy conditions possible to likely for some of the usual drainage gap wind locations. With cold air pooled in the Copper River Basin, we will continue to monitor any upper level features that move along the 500 mb mean flow that could help induce more density driven katabatic winds for some of our valley locations.

-AM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Strong north/northeast winds have peaked and will gradually weaken through the day.