Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Blaine, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
This afternoon: the first round from this atmospheric river continues across western WA this afternoon. The cold front is progressing through, with the mode shifting more from stratiform precipitation to convective/showery activity. The atmosphere remains conditionally unstable going into the afternoon (especially in the Cascades and the coast). A few showers have formed in these areas that have elevated quickly. There remains a 20% chance of thunder going into the evening. The heaviest of these showers/storms may produce rainfall rates up to 0.25"/hr (which may be a concern for a few of the newer burn scars in the Cascades). Aerial and river flooding continue to be an issue with the heavier precipitation that fell earlier today/yesterday.
Please see the hydrology section below for more details on flooding potential and current impacts. Lastly, breezy winds continue with this first system, and a wind advisory remains in effect until 10 PM as winds decrease later tonight. The saturated soils will produce more widespread power outage impacts (in relation to trees and power lines potentially coming down).

Tuesday/Wednesday: A second frontal system will bring another round of precipitation across the region. The bulk of this precipitation will arrive late Tuesday morning, and continue through Wednesday afternoon. The cold front with this system is expected to bring cooler air down with snow levels dropping from 6,000 ft down to 2,000 ft. There remains a 10-20% chance of thunder with this system, especially along the coast.

Impacts: Winds will pick up Tuesday into Wednesday, decreasing Wednesday afternoon. The ensemble guidance between the HRRR/REFS and NBM kept the most likely wind impacts in the advisory range.
The high wind watch was replaced with a wind advisory through the period. Southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph are expected in the advisory areas, with gusts up to 45 to 55 mph (highest gusts along the Pacific Coast).

Rain will transition to snow in the Cascades/Olympics late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Some model discrepancies remain with how quick the transition will take place, but models relatively agree on set amounts between the north Cascades, and the south Cascades/Olympics. The north Cascades will see warning amounts of snow with 10-16 inches at Stevens Pass, and higher amounts at some of the mountain peaks. The south Cascades and Olympics will likely see advisory amounts, with 6-10 inches at Snoqualmie and White Passes. Breezy winds up to 35 mph in the passes may reduce visibilities and near-blizzard like conditions at times (especially with the heavier snow). If traveling over the passes, check road conditions prior to traveling.

For all remaining lowlands: rain will push through late Tuesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon. The heaviest of the precipitation rates remain in the mountains, but the lowlands may see rates approach 0.10"/hr (lighter than previous systems).
Additional rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.25" are expected in the interior, with the coast seeing around 1.00-1.25".

In addition to rain and wind, landslide risk will remain high through the week due to saturated soils from last week (and this week's) rainfall across the region. Strong waves along the Pacific Coast will be possible at times today through Wednesday as waves of 15 to 19 ft move up to the coast. High surf is not a concern at this time.

Temperatures will remain above average Tuesday, with highs remaining in the mid 50s. They will dip into the 40s on Wednesday. The lows overnight will drop from the mid 40s tonight, to the low 40s Tuesday and Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A third system will move across the region Thursday into Friday.
The snow levels will remain around 2,000 ft with this system, adding additional snow to the passes. QPF will be heavily concentrated in the Cascades and Olympics, but amounts overall are on the lighter side compared to the previous two systems (0.50-1.00" in the lowlands, and 1-3" in the mountains). Light QPF will continue through the weekend, with no additional impacts expected. The ensembles favor a cooler pattern going into the holidays next week, with a slight chance of wetter conditions.

HPR

AVIATION
Strong west to southwest flow aloft continues the entire TAF period. The cold front that brought light rain and reduced flight conditions to the area will be exiting the region at the beginning of this TAF period. Another cold front is on track to traverse across the area Tuesday afternoon and bring more rain, gusty winds, and reduced flight conditions.

Gusty 25kt to 35kt winds will begin diminishing around 02/03Z as mixing largely subsides. Winds largely remain around or less than 10kts overnight before increasing as the next front reaches the region late in the TAF period. Gusts of 20kts to 30kts return after 20Z Tuesday at most terminals.

Light rain will continue to dissipated through 02Z/03Z across the area with VFR flight conditions at all terminals. However, isolated instances of MVFR ceilings / a 3000ft deck cannot be ruled out.
Ahead of the next weather system, IFR to MVFR ceilings begin to roll into the terminals. The most likely timeframe of reduced flight conditions beginning will be roughly between 08Z-13Z. These reduced flight conditions continue through the remainder of the TAF period.
Light rain to rain shower potential increases ahead and with the front on Tuesday morning.

KSEA... Light rain and gusty 25kt to 35kt winds will come to an end around 03Z. Through 03Z, an occasional instance of MVFR flight conditions cannot be ruled out as light rain exits the terminal. VFR flight conditions are expected until at least 08Z before the next round of light rain to light rain showers moves in. Expect MVFR ceilings to precede and accompany any rain. Gusts increase with gusts around 30kts midday Tuesday.

MARINE
A front is exiting the waters this evening. A stronger system will arrive Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning and a low pressure system approaches the waters on Thursday.

Strong, gale force winds will come to an end over the next few hours. Southwest winds are forecast to be between 20 and 25 mph overnight and into Tuesday morning, thus a small craft advisory will be in effect over the coastal waters during this timeframe. There is high confidence in gale force winds returning Tuesday afternoon and persisting into Wednesday morning.

Seas will largely subside to 10 to 12 feet tonight and much of Tuesday. Seas will build again Tuesday evening to 15 to 19 feet and this will continue into Wednesday. Seas subside to 10 to 13 feet Wednesday evening.

HYDROLOGY
Rain will ease tonight into Tuesday before another front reaches the area later Tuesday into Wednesday increasing precipitation rates. Cooler air moving into the area Tuesday night adds some uncertainty to the river levels. Current forecasts have snow levels dropping to 2000 to 2500 feet by Wednesday morning. The front Tuesday night into Wednesday has more moisture than the todays system but the cooler air will keep some of the moisture in the mountains in the form of snow. This combination makes for tricky river forecasting.

Rivers continue to rise this afternoon. Rivers that continue to stay above flood stage will rise even further above. This first round will drive a few rivers above flood stage (with a few already above flood). The second round of precipitation will drive additional rivers above flood stage with major flooding possible along the Skagit and moderate flooding for the river flowing out of the Central Cascades like the Skykomish, Snoqualmie and Snohomish. The Skokomish could also reach moderate flood stage.

A flood watch is in effect through Thursday afternoon across the lowlands.

With a couple more rounds of precipitation the landslide threat will remain very elevated through Thursday. Felton/HPR/JBB

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastside-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County- Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend Area- Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties- Cascades of Southern King County-Olympics.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Gale Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.