Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 3:05 AM   Moonset 1:54 PM

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FXUS63 KDLH 030544 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1244 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Continue to ride the rain chance rollercoaster with waves of precipitation moving through today, Friday evening into Saturday, and again Monday into Tuesday.

- Normal to above normal temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

- Some severe weather possible with the Monday-Tuesday chance of precipitation.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Yet another round of rain is moving through the area this afternoon, with areas of mostly stratiform rain showers across the Northland.
Behind the initial push of rain, lower clouds and light rain/drizzle have been observed. Expect at least light rain to stick around through the afternoon and early evening hours, with areas of moderate rainfall mixing in a times. This will all slowly propagate north, slowly clearly from south to north into Friday morning. As this precipitation moves out, some fog could build overnight on both land and lake.

Tomorrow, expecting a fairly dry and warm day for much of the Northland. The one exception may be along portions of the International Border, where some scattered light rain showers may persist through early to mid afternoon and cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50s. Elsewhere, expecting temperatures in the 60s, possibly near 70 in NW WI. Winds will become gusty out of the southwest tomorrow afternoon with efficient mixing up to around 850mb. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible, the strongest along the Iron Range and into the MN Arrowhead. Into the later after noon and evening, our next round of rain starts to creep in, along a baroclinic zone and strong upper level jet. Deterministic guidance continues to paint this as a SW to NE oriented band of rainfall that will develop up to the northeast, and then push across eastward, brining another 0.10-0.25" of rain for much of the area.

A brief moment of ridging and high pressure (remember what that is?!) builds in Sunday, with sunshine and warm temperatures expected. This will be one of the longer periods of no rainfall that we've seen in the last 10 days. Clear skies continue into Monday morning, but starts to fill back in through the day, as a deep upper level trough swings across the Plains. Timing is a little uncertain on the arrival of this system to our area, and I would not be surprised to see the arrival time slow down as we get closer. Regardless, into Tuesday, this system is expected to spin up and deepen further, bringing a potent shot of rainfall and the potential for some severe weather to the area, and then additional rainfall in the occluded quadrant of the storm into mid week. Ensemble mean QPF is around 075- 1" of rain, but there are some members that suggest locally heavy rainfall could be possible. Will have to keep an eye on not only the severe threat, but the potential for some local flash flooding, especially considering our newly moistened landscape.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low ceilings ranging from VLIFR to MVFR are occurring early this morning as an occluded front moves through. LIFR fog has also been observed around the Twin Ports, impacting DLH. Low cigs and reduced visibility from fog is expected to continue until the occluded front passes through later this morning. BRD has already seen this frontal passage, where conditions are VFR. Expect improvement across the region later this morning, with VFR conditions continuing through the remainder of the TAF period. Southwest winds will be breezy today as the region sits between areas of high and low pressure.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Northeast winds continue to strengthen yet this afternoon and evening, brining elevated wave heights to Western Lake Superior, especially the head of the lake. Northeast winds should back off overnight. Friday, expect winds to turn southwesterly and become strong up to 25 knots through the day. Due to warmer temperatures on land, expecting the strongest winds further up in the atmosphere to not make it to the surface of the lake, but they may be sampled by larger ships measuring wind further up.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ142>146.

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