Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 2:32 PM

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FXUS66 KOTX 030930 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 230 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
The region will see mild and dry conditions today, with the exception of a few scattered showers near the Canadian border.
The next system will move into the region Friday night, expanding eastward through Saturday. Sunday will be cool and wet, with additional unsettled weather expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

Today through Saturday Night...As you wake up this morning and head to work, you may notice that temperatures feel warmer than they have the last few mornings. Well you're not imagining things, the temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees warmer at 2am than they were 24 hours ago. Clear skies this morning will see clouds increasing ahead of the next system. There will be some isolated showers in far northeastern Washington and ID Panhandle this afternoon, mainly along the Canadian border. Winds will pick up along the lee side of the Cascades, especially in the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau as the winds shift southerly with gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
Winds will decrease in the Okanogan Valley overnight but gusts of 30 mph remaining in the Waterville Plateau. Temperatures will rise slightly, reaching the mid 60s with a few 70s in the LC Valley. Rain will move in overnight over the Cascades, which will be the beginning of a pattern change. Lows will be even warmer tonight but closer to normal, only dropping into the 40s.

Saturday's front will chug slowly eastward as the low slides towards the Oregon coast. Morning temperatures will warm throughout the day, with Saturday being the warmest of the forecast for locations along and east of the Columbia Basin. Even with the additional cloud cover, prefrontal warming will warm above the temperatures seen today. The front will move through lee side of the Cascades in late morning, keeping high temperatures in the 50s and rain showers arriving earlier. Rain showers will continue to spread eastward throughout the day. Breezy winds will continue through the day, expanding into the upper Columbia Basin and Palouse with gusts to of 25 to 30 mph. By late Saturday evening, much of the region will have some sort of showers in their area. These showers will increase throughout the night, bringing some beneficial rainfall to the region. /KM

Sunday and Sunday night: Wet and cool. As a closed upper low tracks across Oregon into southern ID, a deformation band slowly pivots across the Inland NW giving way to round of rain. Precipitable waters increase to over 0.8” across eastern WA by Sunday morning.
- Precipitation: Moderate rain amounts of are expected especially across parts of the Columbia Basin, southeast WA and the southern ID Panhandle where the best dynamics and moisture will lie. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to rain from less than a tenth of an inch in north-central WA to a half to near an inch of rain across southeast WA where stream flows are running low. Snow levels should be high, spanning from 5-6 K ft with mainly the higher elevations experiencing snow in the central Cascades, central ID Panhandle, and Blue mountains. The precipitation will lead to small rises on area rivers and streams although no flooding is expected yet any intense rain rates may lead to ponding of water in low lying areas. Overall anticipate the rain to be beneficial after the latest stretch of dry weather.
-Temperatures: Daytime highs will be vary depending on where the steady rain lies. Right now it will remain cooler from the eastern Columbia Basin to the Spokane/ Coeur d’Alene area and Palouse as they struggle to reach 50, meanwhile temperatures will be nearing 60 in north central WA further from rain bands. Westerly winds gradually increase by the afternoon to evening hours especially across southeast WA in the lee of the Cascades with gusts 25 to 35 mph as the low level boundary shifts east and pushes across north ID by Sunday evening.

Monday through Tuesday: Breezy and showery. A west to northwest flow aloft prevails in the wake of the departing low, while a secondary weak trough rotates in from the Pacific. Low level moisture remains and showers will be more numerous by Monday afternoon as instability increases slightly. With mean capes near 100 J/kg across northeast WA into the ID Panhandle, this supports the mention of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.
Breezy westerly winds continue with peak gusts in the afternoon and evening hours of 25 to 30 mph especially across the Columbia Basin and Palouse Monday afternoon. Slight chances anticipated for Tuesday with mainly less moisture and less shower coverage. The risk of thunderstorms will be less and confined over northeast WA.
Westerly winds continue although less gusty topping out at 20 to 25 mph. Anticipate more seasonal temperatures with highs in the 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday through Friday: Drier and warmer. An upper level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and builds inland. The threat of showers lingers over north Idaho and brushing extreme eastern WA for Wednesday, but trending less coverage for Thursday as drier and more stable conditions arrive. Under lighter winds, the more noticeable change will be warmer temperatures reaching the 60s to lower 70s on Thursday and in the 70s by Friday. The dry and warm pattern looks to continue into the following weekend. /rfox.

AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through Friday evening as the next weather system spreads increasing high clouds across the region on Friday. A quieter day in terms of mountain convection is forecast, with a 20% chance of showers limited to areas near the Canadian border in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 06z Saturday. JW

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 65 45 68 42 48 40 / 0 0 10 40 80 70 Coeur d'Alene 65 42 67 42 47 40 / 0 0 10 30 60 80 Pullman 63 46 66 38 44 39 / 0 0 20 70 80 80 Lewiston 71 47 71 45 53 44 / 0 0 10 70 80 80 Colville 65 40 68 43 56 38 / 10 0 20 30 80 80 Sandpoint 62 42 65 46 51 41 / 10 0 10 30 60 90 Kellogg 62 43 65 44 46 40 / 10 0 10 40 80 90 Moses Lake 71 52 70 45 55 42 / 0 10 40 50 80 20 Wenatchee 68 52 60 47 58 44 / 0 20 70 50 40 10 Omak 70 49 68 49 63 42 / 0 10 30 40 40 30

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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