Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stansberry Lake, WA

UPDATE
Rain continues this morning, primarily in the mountains and in the south sound. There remains a slight chance of thunder (20-30% chance) with activity through the afternoon and evening. The front is a little ahead of schedule, which models have picked up on with an earlier peak in maximum wind gusts late this morning through mid afternoon. Remainder of the forecast below is on track with an update to the aviation section.

HPR

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Rain is increasing again this morning as a warm front lifts northward across Western Washington. Moderate to locally heavy rain and gusty winds will persist through the day before a trailing cold front sweeps through by early this evening with rain turning to showers and isolated thunderstorms. Though QPF is lighter with this system than those of last week, the additional rainfall and high snow levels will push a number of rivers back into flood flow and continue the threat of landslides. After a brief lull between systems Monday night into early Tuesday, a secondary stronger system arrives later Tuesday. And this one has some worrisome wind potential with it. When combined with saturated soils already in place, the threat of fallen trees increases. Models show a sharp surface mesolow forming to the lee of the Olympics by 09Z Wednesday.
This creates a very strong pressure gradient Seattle southward.
Isallobaric analysis shows impressively strong pressure rises behind it...as much as 7 or 8 millibars in just three hours early Wednesday morning. So, it's not just wind speeds alone, but the rapid manner in which they could arrive. As such, we have put up a high wind watch for all of the lowlands Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning with gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible for the interior lowlands and 60 to 65 along the coast. Snow levels will tumble to the passes late Tuesday night with significant snowfall expected. Totals could approach a foot at Snoqualmie Pass by midday Wednesday, 1 to 2 feet at Stevens, and perhaps 2 to 3 feet at Mount Baker.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Model consensus keeps the pattern active and unsettled throughout the extended portion of the forecast. However, the air mass will remain considerably cooler with snow levels at or below passes into the weekend. This will allow rivers to recede while snow piles up in the mountains...a long awaited return to some semblance of normalcy for December. 27

AVIATION
Strong southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the TAF period, with a cold front traversing across the region early Monday afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Winds at the surface have began to increase ahead of the front and are forecast to gust 20kt to 35kt through 02Z/03Z at all terminals. Winds decrease overnight as mixing subsides, however, winds aloft will still remain strong.
Winds will increase and become gusty again late or just beyond this TAF period.

As the front treks across the region today, expect light rain/light rain showers with associated IFR to MVFR flight conditions.
Conditions are forecast to improve to VFR behind the front overnight. Light rain potential increases again Tuesday morning (between 10Z-13Z) ahead of the next front. Expect IFR to MVFR conditions to return shortly before this next round of rain Tuesday morning.

KSEA.. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through at least 22Z and instances of IFR flight conditions are possible during this time. Gusty 25kt to 35kt southerly winds will help clear out some of the lower ceilings after 22Z with VFR flight conditions. Southerly gusts come to an end around 02Z as mixing largely subsides, however, winds aloft remain relatively strong. Expect VFR flight conditions through early Tuesday morning before the next round of light rain to light rain showers moves in. Expect MVFR ceilings to precede and accompany any rain. Gusts increase with gusts around 30kts midday Tuesday.

MARINE
A front will move through the waters today. A stronger system will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with another system Thursday.

Gale force winds today over the waters. Winds easing late this afternoon into tonight. Small craft advisory winds over the coastal waters tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Another round of gales for all the waters later Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Winds easing Wednesday afternoon.

Seas 14 to 18 feet today subsiding to 10 to 13 feet tonight.
Seas continuing to subside slightly Tuesday before building again to 14 to 18 feet later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Seas subsiding to 9 to 12 feet Wednesday night. Felton

HYDROLOGY
Atmospheric river arriving later morning with rivers rising again by afternoon. Even with the rises most of the rivers staying below flood stage today. Rivers over flood stage will be the ones that will have not dropped below much below flood stage over the weekend like the Skagit, Cedar, White and Cowlitz below Mayfield Dam.

Rain easing tonight into Tuesday before another front reaches the area later Tuesday into Wednesday increasing precipitation rates.
This second round of precipitation will drive some rivers above flood stage with major flooding possible along the Skagit and moderate flooding for the river flowing out of the Central Cascades like the Skykomish, Snoqualmie and Snohomish. The Skokomish could also reach moderate flood stage.

Cooler air moving into the area Tuesday night adds some uncertainty to the river levels. Current forecasts have snow levels dropping to 2000 to 2500 feet by Wednesday morning. The front Tuesday night into Wednesday has more moisture than the todays system but the cooler air will keep some of the moisture in the mountains in the form of snow. This combination makes for tricky river forecasting.

A flood watch is in effect through Thursday afternoon across the lowlands.

With a couple more rounds of precipitation the landslide threat will remain very elevated through Thursday. Felton/HPR

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastside-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County- Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend Area- Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties- Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Olympics.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Gale Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Tuesday for East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.