Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 2:18 PM

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FXUS61 KCAR 030331 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1131 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will exit south of the Gulf of Maine early tonight.
High pressure then builds across the region later tonight through Saturday. An occluded front approaches Saturday night into Sunday, crosses the region Sunday night into Monday, then exits across the Maritimes Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
11:30 PM Update...Low clouds cover most southern and eastern areas with partial cloudiness in the west. Modified cloud cover to reflect this, and adjusted temps up across most eastern areas where clouds have been limiting cooling.

Previous Discussion: Surface low pressure, along with the supporting upper trof, will exit south of the Gulf of Maine early tonight. Surface high pressure then builds south across the region later tonight through Friday. An upper level disturbance will also move south across the region in advance of a building upper ridge Friday.
Expect isolated/scattered showers north, scattered/numerous showers Downeast, early tonight with the exiting system. Mostly cloudy skies should then persist across the forecast area overnight. Could also have patchy fog later tonight mostly for areas which received the steadier rain today. Expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies across the forecast area Friday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to around 40 across the forecast area. High temperatures Friday will generally range from the upper 50s to around 60 across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper level ridge will help support the surface high pressure in the region Friday night. The approaching occlusion should increase cloud cover through the night. The E flow is expected to bring cooler air into the region, which should drop temps into the upper 30s. By Saturday, extended models show the occlusion stalling to the W as the surface high pressure intensifies. Thought there is still some disagreement between QPF models, the high pressure should keep rain to the W and out of the region for the day. Temps should be around 60.

By Saturday night, the axis of the upper level trof should move across the region, which will push the next low pressure system closer. The models have disagreement on the timing of the rain with the Euro bringing rain showers into the area much faster than the GFS and Canadian. Decided to go with slight chance for the night. By Sunday, the upper level trof moves to the E bringing the rest of the moisture from the cold front into the area. Extended models still are inconsistent with the timing of the rain showers, so backed off to slight chance in the morning, then chance in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The low pressure system will progress through the area Sunday night through Monday with rain showers through this period. As the system intensifies Monday afternoon, the low should pick up speed and move out of the state by Monday night. Weak high pressure moves in Monday night and remains through Tuesday night. The next system could move in on Wednesday, however, the GFS and Euro show a defined low pressure system while the Canadian shows shortwave energy surging around the surface trof.
High inconsistencies within the models make the forecast difficult for the end of the week, so decreased the NBM rain chances to slight chance or low end chance. Temps should be seasonally normal.

AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will persist across northern terminals, with an isolated rain shower possible briefly early this evening while cigs remain VFR. Cigs will lower towards low end VFR to upper end MVFR overnight through early Friday morning, then return to VFR on Friday.

The primary cig height at Downeast terminals will also be VFR, but in scattered rain showers this evening, brief periods of MVFR and IFR cigs are likely, especially in any more moderate rainfall. Patchy fog is likely to develop through the night, which could lower vis to IFR/LIFR until sunrise. Cigs will trend towards VFR on Friday.

Winds light and variable tonight becoming N at 5 to 10 kts on Friday.

SHORT TERM: Fri night-Sat night...VFR. ENE winds 5-10 kts switching to S Sat night.

Sun-Mon...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

Mon night-Tue...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts, increasing to 10-15 kts Tue.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Friday. Showers early tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions for this time period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

St-Bernard-de-l'ile-
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:00 AM EDT     4.44 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT     1.60 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 01:20 PM EDT     5.06 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     1.24 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St-Bernard-de-l'ile-, Quebec, Tide feet

Cap Aux Oies
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Fri -- 12:15 AM EDT     3.99 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     1.49 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 12:31 PM EDT     4.76 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:01 PM EDT     1.00 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cap Aux Oies, Quebec, Tide feet

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