Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 2:46 AM   Moonset 12:38 PM

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FXUS63 KFGF 030347 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1047 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Several rounds of rain are expected through the remainder of the week and into next week. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially the first half of next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast and timing of rain on track. Low is right over Grand Forks at 03z. East wind at KGFK and west wind at KRDR. Rain area moving north with backedge of the rain approaching Grand Forks area. Rain in the eastern fcst area (Bemidji) remains less than desired as that area up to Baudette keeps missing the higher rain totals. Other than minor tweeks to grids no further weather issues noted overnight. .

UPDATE Issued at 724 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Low pressure is moving north-northeast and near Mayville ND at 00z. Sfc front located from low to Fargo then to Fergus Falls to Alexandria. WSW to west winds behind it and south-southeast winds ahead of it. Area of moderate rain ahead of the low moving north and into the northern valley. Scattered showers and a few t-storms western and central ND will weaken as they move east but still worth watching. Otherwise trend overnight will be to watch clearing line and pop trends.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Active H5 pattern persists through much of the forecast period, with multiple chances to see rain and isolated thunderstorms. Shortwave troughing exits the region this evening and overnight, with a break in shower activity overnight for most areas. Another, slow moving, upper low traverses the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of the region Friday afternoon through around midday Saturday. The best chance for thunderstorm activity will be along and just south of the International Border. This will gradually work to the east, with a period of dry weather starting Saturday afternoon and evening.

H5 shortwave ridging builds into the area Sunday ahead of our next system. Look for warmer and relatively dry weather through much of the day, with increasing rain chances late Sunday evening. A relatively deep upper low is being picked up by multiple ensembles heading into Monday. Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher with this system, along with a better chance for increased instability as moisture return is well-supported. Troughing will favor negative tilting ahead of the upper low, and a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on both Monday and Tuesday afternoons respectively.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 724 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MVFR cigs in many areas in rain as system moves north-northeast thru the area. But seeing clearing and rising ceilings moving into DVL and SE ND/WC MN early this evening with that translating northeast thru the night. Winds turning southwest to west as this system moves through and a windy/gusty day on Friday with gusts from the west 30 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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