Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM   Moonset 2:03 PM

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FXUS63 KFGF 030822 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 322 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few weak thunderstorms possible north of Highway 2 this afternoon then a nice weekend in store.

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers coming to an end for most this morning with a few remaining along the international border yet. Clouds continue to clear quickly behind the rain with at least a few hours of sun likley south of HWY 200 today. Along HWY 2 and north another piece of energy will rotate around the parent trough with associated PVA and low level cold air advection causing the formation of scattered showers/thundershowers across northern areas this afternoon.
Resulting CAPE from the steepening lapse rates could top 100-200 j/kg. Not unreasonable to see some small hail with this though shallow storm tops to <6km and minimal depth in the HGZ would likely limit any hail that does occur to pea size. Not expecting much in terms of rain accumulation this afternoon with the 25th/75th showing 0.10" to 0.25" primarily north of HWY 2 though a few of these showers depending on the exact track of the wave could make it a bit further south towards HWY 200.
This evening a band of h850 fgen in South Dakota will shift east bringing shower chances across the far southern valley into west central Minnesota though a quick forward speed should limit amounts to under 0.25".

Shortwave ridging then begins to move in behind this pair of Friday waves with the bulk of the clouds clearing through the day on Saturday leaving a nice end to the weekend with highs climbing into the 60s and an outside chance (10%) at 70s in the valley.

The nice weather doesnt last long however as another upper low barrels east from the rockies becoming very negatively tilted as it reaches the Dakotas Monday. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the low will see south/southeast surface winds climb over 20 mph with an 80% chance for H850 winds to be over 40 kts increasing confidence in gusty winds at the surface. This strong low level flow wil also usher in strong moisture return from stemming from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low. CWASP values are currently forecast to be the highest we have seen yet this year with CSU ML highlighting our area in a 5% chance for severe weather.
Whether this threat materializes will remain to be seen but between the strong kinematics and moisture return at least a few necessary ingredients will likely be in place. Taking a step back and just looking at QPF probs best chances for over 1" look to be in western and central North Dakota through Wednesday AM.
25th/75th would generally result in 0.5-1.5" for the forecast area.

Beyond Wednesday confidence decreases and clusters show a spilt between 1) northerly flow on the backside of the exiting upper low to the east and weak ridging to the west and 2) southwest flow. CPC outlooks for this time period depict us as being favored to stay below average for temps while maintaining the wet streak with more chances for rain to end the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Skies have partially cleared over SE ND into WC MN with edge of main clouds near a Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Bemidji line. As sfc low continues to move north and into Manitoba prior to 12z do look for remaining areas with southeast winds to turn southwest, with all areas seeing a west-southwest wind Friday at times gusty in the midday and aftn to near 30 kts, more so in E ND and the RRV. Clouds are likely to remain along Hwy 2 and north thru Friday daytime. Though MVFR cigs may improve some as rain ends, and Friday will see cloud bases more in the lower end VFR range. CU may bring some lower end VFR ceilings back into SE ND/WC MN midday and aftn Friday as well.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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