Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM   Moonset 2:02 PM

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FXUS63 KFGF 030551 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1251 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Several rounds of rain are expected through the remainder of the week and into next week. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially the first half of next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low continues to track off to the northeast and is now centered over northwest MN at 06Z. Rain is now confined to areas north of HWY 2 with heaviest pocket from Crookston to Thief River Falls and east into the Red Lakes. This will continue northeast with the low as we see the bulk of these showers taper off by sunrise with clear skies for areas south of HWY 200 potentially giving the opportunity for some to catch a glimpse of the aurora tonight under a waning crescent moon.

UPDATE Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast and timing of rain on track. Low is right over Grand Forks at 03z. East wind at KGFK and west wind at KRDR. Rain area moving north with back edge of the rain approaching Grand Forks area. Rain in the eastern fcst area (Bemidji) remains less than desired as that area up to Baudette keeps missing the higher rain totals. Other than minor tweeks to grids no further weather issues noted overnight. .

UPDATE Issued at 724 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Low pressure is moving north-northeast and near Mayville ND at 00z. Sfc front located from low to Fargo then to Fergus Falls to Alexandria. WSW to west winds behind it and south-southeast winds ahead of it. Area of moderate rain ahead of the low moving north and into the northern valley. Scattered showers and a few t-storms western and central ND will weaken as they move east but still worth watching. Otherwise trend overnight will be to watch clearing line and pop trends.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Active H5 pattern persists through much of the forecast period, with multiple chances to see rain and isolated thunderstorms. Shortwave troughing exits the region this evening and overnight, with a break in shower activity overnight for most areas. Another, slow moving, upper low traverses the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of the region Friday afternoon through around midday Saturday. The best chance for thunderstorm activity will be along and just south of the International Border. This will gradually work to the east, with a period of dry weather starting Saturday afternoon and evening.

H5 shortwave ridging builds into the area Sunday ahead of our next system. Look for warmer and relatively dry weather through much of the day, with increasing rain chances late Sunday evening. A relatively deep upper low is being picked up by multiple ensembles heading into Monday. Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher with this system, along with a better chance for increased instability as moisture return is well-supported. Troughing will favor negative tilting ahead of the upper low, and a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on both Monday and Tuesday afternoons respectively.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Skies have partially cleared over SE ND into WC MN with edge of main clouds near a Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Bemidji line. As sfc low continues to move north and into Manitoba prior to 12z do look for remaining areas with southeast winds to turn southwest, with all areas seeing a west-southwest wind Friday at times gusty in the midday and aftn to near 30 kts, more so in E ND and the RRV. Clouds are likely to remain along Hwy 2 and north thru Friday daytime. Though MVFR cigs may improve some as rain ends, and Friday will see cloud bases more in the lower end VFR range. CU may bring some lower end VFR ceilings back into SE ND/WC MN midday and aftn Friday as well.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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