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FXUS65 KTFX 030541 AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1140 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

SYNOPSIS
Chilly and wet weather continues slowly across north central and central Montana, today. Warmer weather is forecast for Saturday; however, temperatures quickly cool, while active weather returns to the area on Sunday.

UPDATE
830 PM Update...The winter weather advisory for the Bears Paw Mountains has been cancelled. Web cams this evening show areas of snow moving southward through the CWA, but impacts have generally been limited to just a reduction in visibility. With lighter snowfall expected after Midnight, any remain impacts from snow accumulations on roadway should be minor. Otherwise, the current forecast for the rest of tonight remains on track. Brusda

5 PM Update...Forecast updated to remove the winter highlights for North Central and Southwest MT except for the Bears Paw Mountains area. Scattered snow showers will continue to affect mostly Central and North Central MT through the late evening hours, however the main impact will just be reduced visibility. Impacts to roadways will be limited, thus the advisory has been cancelled.
The rest of the forecast is on track. Brusda

AVIATION
1140 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 (03/06Z TAF Period)

Mountain areas of Central Montana (KHLN) and Southwest Montana (KBZN KEKS KWYS): VFR conditions are mostly expected to continue through at least 04/06Z. Broken ceilings will continue through at least 18Z, with a few rain and snow showers in the KHLN area possibly causing brief periods of MVFR conditions through 10Z. Partial clearing is expected after 18Z.

North Central (KCTB KHVR) and the plains of Central Montana (KGTF KLWT): Northerly upslope flow will continue widespread mountain-top obscuring low VFR/MVFR conditions through at least 14Z. Periods of snow showers may reduced conditions to mountain-obscuring IFR at times. High pressure will start moving into the area from the west after 14Z, decreasing the snow showers and allowing broken ceilings to lift to at least low VFR levels with partial clearing starting after 18Z. -Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 304 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024/

Note: The forecast area for the National Weather Service Great Falls Weather Forecast Office includes north central, central and southwest Montana.

The current weather producer moves slowly across our region, today. Mountain snowfall continues, while low elevation moisture, mostly, turns to rainfall. Most moisture falls across north central and central Montana. With daytime temperatures warming, I've allowed to expire or cancelled Winter Storm Warnings, as well as, some Winter Weather Advisories. In the case of the Winter Storm Warning that was in effect for the Little Belt and Highwood Mountains, I've issued a Winter Weather Advisory, in its place.
Please, see WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section, below for current information on winter weather products. Breezy to gusty winds, continue. Wet conditions, along with cool temperatures, and even cooler wind chill temperatures, cause hypothermia concerns for those who may be working or recreating in the backcountry areas.
- Fogleman

A transient/weak upper level ridge develops Friday across the northern Rockies and shifts east across the area Saturday for a brief period of drier weather between the current upper level low affecting the region and the next one moving onto the west coast this weekend. Temperatures warm some on Friday but remain below seasonal averages with widespread overnight low temperatures likely to fall below freezing under lighter winds and clearing skies Friday night before a seasonably mild and dry day on Saturday. Multi-model ensembles are in broad agreement to take the next next upper level low eastward into the Great Basin by Sunday with southerly flow ahead of this feature importing warmer air and moisture into the region on Sunday. This will bring an increased risk for showers as well as thunderstorms from south to north across the area Sunday afternoon and evening with confidence in timing and additional details decreasing by early next week, though an overall pattern featuring above average precipitation chances is likely, especially for eastern portions of north- central MT. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 50 26 63 / 70 40 0 0 CTB 27 49 26 59 / 70 10 0 0 HLN 29 55 31 69 / 30 20 0 0 BZN 23 52 28 66 / 20 10 0 0 WYS 17 47 20 59 / 20 10 0 0 DLN 24 52 30 65 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 27 50 27 64 / 50 40 0 0 LWT 24 42 23 59 / 70 50 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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