Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 3:06 AM   Moonset 2:06 PM

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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 826 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
combined seas 2 to 4 feet rising to 4 to 5 ft tomorrow. Bar conditions light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 115 am Friday, 115 pm Friday, and 200 am Saturday.

PZZ100 826 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Weak high pressure is in place over the waters before the next system moves into the area waters Friday into Saturday for elevated southerly winds. Another system will move across the area waters late in the weekend into early next week.

FXUS66 KPQR 030427 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Portland OR 926 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions with partly sunny skies through this evening between systems. Heavier rain arrives Friday into Saturday, but we are not expecting any widespread hydrological concerns at this time. Cool, wet, unsettled weather likely continues through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM
Through Saturday Night...We are starting to see a few breaks of sunshine across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this afternoon as skies begin to partially clear from the north behind a departing shortwave trough exiting east of the Cascades. Short term guidance is hinting at a slight chance of thunderstorms over the south Washington Cascades through early this evening as a trailing disturbance clips the northern edge of the area, but for the most part expect any convective activity to remain north of the area. Expect the rest of the area to remain dry into Friday morning, with high level cloud cover starting to filter back into the region later this evening ahead of the next system dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska.

That next system is readily apparent on water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon as a developing low centered near 52N 144W. The low will continue to amplify as it digs southeastward to a position several hundred miles off the Oregon Coast by Friday evening, sending a surface front across the area Friday afternoon into early Saturday. The forecast remains on track with respect to expected rainfall amounts, which continue to look impressive by early May standards but are not expected to pose any widespread hydro concerns at this time. Underlying metrics have not changed much as IVT values briefly max out around 250-400 kg/ms Friday evening, with precipitable water values around 1 inch running two standard deviations above normal. The progressive nature and track of the system still look to be the saving grace for more widespread hydro issues as rain will transition to showers by Saturday afternoon as the low passes south towards the California border. All told, QPF amounts are still holding around 1-1.5 inches for the interior lowlands, and 1.5-2 inches for the coast and mountains from late Friday morning to Saturday afternoon, with HEFS probabilistic guidance still showing a less than 10 percent chance to reach action stage on all area rivers and less than a 5 percent chance on most of them. Snow levels will drop back to around 3000 feet as the colder air arrives on Saturday, bringing snow back to the Cascade passes. May need to consider another round of Winter Weather Advisories on Saturday as the event draws closer, with another 5-8 inches of snow looking possible from roughly Santiam Pass down through Willamette Pass through Saturday night. Finally, a few thunderstorms may be possible across the southern half of the area on Saturday afternoon as the upper low clips the area and colder air arrives aloft. /CB

LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday...Little change in the forecast through mid to late next week as WPC ensembles continue to depict upper level troughing keeping an active, cool, and showery pattern in place across the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday or Thursday. Still do not see any signals for particularly notable QPF in any one period beyond Saturday, but area rivers will likely continue to run high for this time of year as episodic bouts of rain continue across the region.
Temperatures will continue to run a bit below normal, with daytime highs struggling to get out of the 50s through Thursday.
The bulk of the model guidance does continue to hint at high pressure towards the end of next week, so there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for warmer and drier conditions returning beyond next Thursday. /CB

AVIATION
The next front is beginning to approach the area, with southern coastal areas (KONP) already seeing pre-frontal cloud cover, bringing ceilings to high end MVFR thresholds. The front properly moves ashore around 20z Friday, reaching the Willamette Valley around 22z Fri to 0z Sat. Model guidance indicates around a 60-70% chance of high end MVFR conditions at that time at all terminals. The southern coast (KONP) sees the most precipitation trained there, and around a 70% chance of IFR conditions is expect at that time.

Winds remain fairly variable and light (<5 kt) until the front comes in properly, but once the front arrives, winds will take on a stronger southerly character. Winds at all terminals will begin to gust to around 22-24 kt from the south around 20-22z Fri, then gradually turn west and weaken through the rest of the TAF period. Snow will continue over the Cascades with this frontal passage as temperatures are cold enough to allow for it.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions continue, with very little cloud cover until around 13z as clouds ahead of The next front move in. A high-end VFR overcast deck will begin to develop at that time. The front pushes in right around 00z Sat, and around a 50-60% chance of high end MVFR ceilings begins to develop shortly afterwards at 03z Sat. Winds will pick up around 22z shortly ahead of the front as well, with southerly gusts around 10-12 kt at that time. /JLiu

MARINE
Weak high pressure over the waters will erode tonight as a strengthening low pressure system drops down from the Gulf of Alaska. This low is preceded by a cooler front which will cause winds to shift to the south. Winds along the coast will not be as high as the outer waters as they are not aligned directly to the coastline. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt range from 10-60 NM. The coastal waters will hover right around 20 kt. The north Oregon and central Oregon inner waters may still see isolated gusts up to 25 kt Friday afternoon. Due to a lack of widespread increased winds, have decided not to issue a small craft advisory for the inner waters. However, there remains a slight probability in the case the low tracks a little further north than currently project. Will add, that the rain will be quite heavy so visibility may be difficult at times. Seas will rise to around 6 to 8 ft at 12 to 14 seconds due to the amplified wind wave. Not expecting to exceed 10 ft. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ271>273.

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Toke Point
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Fri -- 03:38 AM PDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:24 AM PDT     7.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:58 PM PDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM PDT     7.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Grays Harbor Entrance
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Fri -- 01:11 AM PDT     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:15 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM PDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:45 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:20 PM PDT     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:25 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:52 PM PDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:45 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current, knots

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