Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 3:37 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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LSZ248 /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-231006t0000z/ 719 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Huron islands to marquette mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - .
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4677 8728 4691 8674 4647 8712 4645 8727 time - .mot - .loc 2318z 252deg 17kt 4685 8696 4666 8713

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 030524 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 124 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Plains low pressure system moving through the Upper Great Lakes will bring widespread rainfall from this afternoon into tonight of .2 to .5 inch, highest west half.
- Active pattern continues through next week as a series of low pressure systems track across the U.S. and affect Upper MI. Above normal precipitation expected, including chance of thunderstorms at times.
- Mostly above normal temperatures expected, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal on the majority of days thru the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Tonight, a vigorous shortwave now over the central/eastern Dakotas will lift east-northeast and reach western Lake Superior Fri morning. Main surge of waa/isentropic ascent and strong 850-700mb moisture transport ahead of this shortwave advances across Upper MI this afternoon/evening, as widespread showers now over west and south central spread east across the rest of the fcst area late this afternoon/early evening. There isn't much elevated cape (basically less than 200 j/kg), but this may lead to a few rumbles of thunder over the east half later this evening into the early overnight where models peg weak elevated CAPE values. Occluded front associated with shortwave will reach western Upper MI around 06z, will extend roughly thru Munising to Manistique by 12z Fri and will exit Luce County by 15z. Showers will abruptly end with the passage of the occluded front as model soundings show sharp mid-level drying surging into the area. Lower levels will dry out quickly as well on Fri as daytime heating builds mixed layer and taps very dry air aloft. Expect skies to trend sunny Fri morning over the w half and early to mid aftn across the e. Expect lows tonight to range from the lower 40s west to mid to upper 40s south central and east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Rain showers quickly wrap up into Friday morning as the occluded front moves through the eastern UP behind the exiting shortwave.
Sunny skies are looking likely, but there is reason or uncertainty across the eastern UP, particularly nearer to the Great Lakes.
Following this round of rain, there will likely be some marine fog and low stratus, which may be advected over the eastern UP under a weaker wind regime and potential lake breeze development. This would limit the potential for mixing. Where skies do remain sunny, daytime heating will contribute to a building mixed layer that will in turn help us tap into very dry air aloft. Dewpoints in the interior- western UP drop into the lower 30s and even upper 20s. With temperatures area-wide well into the 60s and even the lower 70s, relative humidity plummets into the 20s. Winds across the western UP should be on the gusty side, closer in proximity to the surface low centered over the Ontario/Manitoba border region and with better mixing. Expect widespread gusts up to 20-30mph. This would all pose some concern for fire spread, were it not immediately following the ongoing round of widespread rain.

Dry weather will continue Fri night. Then, next shortwave will already be approaching by Sat afternoon, resulting in a quick round of showers spreading in from west to east for the afternoon and evening hours. Showers quickly taper off from west to east into the night behind the passing cold front. Showers are most likely across the western UP as the right entrance region of the upper jet streak will be draped over the area, lending some divergence aloft, but rainfall amounts are still favored. PWATs are only topping out around 0.75in, and soundings indicate only a brief window of deeper moisture as the wave passes through. Though deterministic guidance remains sort of all over the place, ensembles are still showing around a 30-50% chance for totals in excess of 0.10in. Will continue to lean towards the NBM solution keeping most of hte area at around 0.10 to 0.20in.

In the wake of the shortwave, dry weather returns for Sunday and continues Monday with a ridge amplifying over the area. Then, expect wet weather to continue through the work week. For the time range, agreement is good for the next shortwave swinging out of the Rockies on Mon to result in a mid-level low over the Dakotas for Tue. In response, strengthening waa/isentropic ascent directed into the area will touch off our next round of showers late Monday night into Tuesday. Anchored by the mid-level low, mid-level troughing will then expand across the Rockies and Plains to Great Lakes during the midweek period, resulting in additional shortwaves tracking into the Upper Great Lakes with additional rounds of showers through Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue overnight. Easterly upslope flow at SAW and CMX will result in LIFR prevailing longer than IWD.
Expect improvement to VFR at all terminals as a west-southwest wind develops in the wake of the system's cold front moving across the area. First will be at IWD by later tonight and by morning at CMX and SAW.

MARINE
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Winds primarily our of the NE continue to come in below 15kts so far this afternoon, but will soon be on the increase into the evening hours as a surface low lifts northward into the Great Lakes. Expect winds to increase to around 20-25kts across far western Lake Superior for a brief period this evening, then as winds veer to the east with the weakening low moving into WI, expect winds to briefly fall below 20kts in western Lake Superior while increasing to 20- 25kts to the east. As the low lifts into northern Ontario on Friday, winds will shift to the SW. While gusts up to 25kt will continue over western Lake Superior, winds will fall off to mostly under 15kt over the eastern lake in the afternoon as winds back around to the SE. Over the weekend, expect winds mostly below 20kts across Lake Superior under a relatively weak pressure gradient. High pressure that arrives over the Upper Great Lakes late weekend will shift eastward on Mon while a deep low pressure emerges over the western Dakotas. This will result in increasing easterly winds Mon into Tue.
Expect winds up to 30kts by Tue.

With showers moving across Lake Superior through tonight, some fog will likely develop, and it could become locally dense. Fog will push mostly to Canadian waters for Fri due to the SW winds. If the fog does not clear off of the lake on Fri, it may expand back across eastern Lake Superior during Fri aftn as winds back to the E/SE.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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