Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 2:06 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 230 Am Pdt Fri May 3 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 3 to 4 ft through Saturday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.6 kt at 119 am Friday. Seas to 4 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 4.33 kt at 127 pm Friday. Seas 4 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 4.58 kt at 215 am Saturday. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

PZZ200 230 Am Pdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - A front moves over the waters today . Active weather persists through the weekend. Weak low pressure remains over the northeast pacific with additional weakening system affecting the waters into early next week.

FXUS66 KPQR 031034 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 334 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry start to the morning before the next system brings heavier rain this afternoon into Saturday. No widespread hydrological concerns expected. Snow levels will rise above 7000 feet today, then fall back down to Cascade pass-level tomorrow. Expect another round of advisory-level snowfall above 3500 ft this weekend. Cool, wet, unsettled weather likely continues through early next week. Pattern change into drier and warmer weather begins Wednesday through late next week.

SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday night...Satellite imagery as of 3 AM PDT depicts mostly clear skies over northwest Oregon and southwest Washington except for a few areas of low stratus.
High clouds associated with the next low pressure system are approaching the Pacific Northwest and will gradually filter in this morning. Dry conditions will also prevail this morning transient high pressure aloft pushes through the area.

Expect rain to begin at the coast around 12-1 PM and spread into the Willamette Valley by 2-3 PM as the system's warm front lifts over the area. Rain will continue tonight into Saturday morning as the trailing cold front pushes through. This system will have an abundant amount of moisture as IVT values max out around 300-400 kg/ms this evening. Models still show precipitable water values around 1 inch, which is about two standard deviations above normal for this time of year.

There have been minimal changes the total QPF forecast with this system. Still expect around 1-1.5 inches for the interior lowlands, and 1.5-2 inches for the coast and mountains from late morning today to tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon. No impactful winter weather is expected for the Cascade passes today as snow levels will rise above 6500 to 7000 feet. Despite the impressive QPF forecast amounts for early May, no hydro concerns are expected thanks to the quick-moving nature of this system. HEFS probabilistic guidance continues to show a less than 5% chance of reaching action stage for the majority of rivers. Two rivers with the highest chances of reaching action stage are Marys River at Philomath (5-10% chance) and Tualatin River near Dilley (15% chance).

As the low pressure system progresses southward toward California tomorrow, cold air aloft will return and snow levels will fall back down to around 3500 to 4000 feet. We'll still continue to see precipitation this weekend, so another round of winter weather will be in store at pass-level. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued above 3500 feet for the North Oregon Cascades to the Lane County Cascades from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM Sunday morning.
These locations are forecast to receive around 4 to 10 inches of snow, except up to 16 inches for the highest peaks above 5000 feet. Those traveling through the passes this weekend should prepare for winter weather conditions. Meanwhile, the lowlands will continue to see rain showers through the weekend.
-Alviz

LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday...The early part of next week continues to look cool and showery as ensembles from WPC cluster analyses show upper level troughing across the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday. Still not seeing any signals for particularly notable QPF in any one period beyond Saturday, but area rivers will likely continue to run high for this time of year as episodic bouts of rain continue across the region.
Temperatures through Tuesday will continue to run below normal, with daytime highs struggling to get out of the 50s.

On Wednesday, ensemble guidance begins to suggest drier and warmer conditions as an upper level ridge builds over the NE Pacific and extends into our area. By Thursday, WPC clusters suggest that the ridge strengthens further over the Pacific Northwest, leading to clearing skies and a quick rise in daytime temperatures. NBM suggests a 30-50% chance that afternoon highs on Thursday exceed 70 degrees for interior lowlands. This trend looks to continue going into next weekend. -Alviz/CB

AVIATION
High clouds slowly filtering into the area ahead of next frontal system. Generally VFR with areas of MVFR, mainly south of a KTMK-KSLE. May also see patchy fog or low stratus bringing IFR conditions through 14-16Z Fri. The front properly moves ashore around 20z Fri, reaching the Willamette Valley around 22z Fri to 00z Sat. Model guidance indicates around a 60-70% chance of high end MVFR conditions at that time at all terminals. The southern coast (KONP) sees the most precipitation trained there, and around a 70% chance of IFR conditions is expect at that time. These probabilities continue through 12Z Sat. With deep moisture, expect mountains to become obscured.

Winds remain fairly variable and light (<5 kt), but once the front nears, winds will take on a stronger southerly character.
Winds at coastal terminals will begin to gust to around 22-24 kt from the south around 20-22z Fri, then gradually veer more southwesterly and weaken through the rest of the TAF period.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions under nearly clear skies.
Good radiational cooling, but east wind around 5-7 kt holding RH values around 80-85 percent. However if winds ease, may see for or low stratus form. HRRR indicating at 10-20% chance for IFR cigs through 16Z. So for now will not include in TAF, but keep an eye out for changes. The front pushes in right around 00z Sat with around a 50-60% chance of high end MVFR ceilings develop shortly afterwards at 03z Sat. Chances increase to around 80% after 06Z Sat. Winds generally east through about 00Z Sat then more south to southeasterly. A surface trough may hang up on the coast to maintain more of s southeast wind into the night. /mh

MARINE
Weak high pressure over the waters early today gives way to a cold front associated with a low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska. Winds along the coast will not be as high as the outer waters as they are not aligned directly to the coastline. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt range from 10-60 NM. The north Oregon and central Oregon inner waters may still see isolated gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Due to a lack of widespread increased winds, have decided not to issue a small craft advisory for the inner waters. However, there remains a slight probability in the case the low tracks a little further north than currently project. Winds ease this evening, but expect to see a period of steep seas (6 to 8 ft at 8 to 9 seconds)
through Saturday morning, possibly longer, so have extended the Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM Sat. Will have to watch for steep seas reaching the inner waters on Saturday. /mh

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ126>128.

WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ271>273.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Naselle River
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:04 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:33 AM PDT     3.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:24 AM PDT     8.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:00 PM PDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:35 PM PDT     9.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naselle River, 4 miles above swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Paradise Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:13 AM PDT     2.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:15 AM PDT     8.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:39 PM PDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:26 PM PDT     9.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paradise Point, Long Island, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Langley,Hill/Gray,Harbor,WA