Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 2:59 AM   Moonset 1:56 PM

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LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 031130 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of Dense Fog expected early this morning around Lake Superior, including around the Twin Ports.

- Widespread rain arrives this evening and will persist into Saturday.
Thunderstorms are unlikely with this system.

- Additional chances for rain arrive early to mid next week, with a high potential for widespread soaking rainfall.
Thunderstorms will be more likely with the system next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Areas of dense fog have developed this morning in the wake of an occluded frontal passage. This fog is a result of a combination of low to near-zero dewpoint depressions, relatively light winds, and low-level moisture lingering from rain showers last evening.
Visibility of one quarter of a mile or less has been observed early this morning, mainly in areas adjacent to Lake Superior and especially around the Twin Ports. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until 8 AM CDT today for this dense fog. Expect fog to dissipate shortly after sunrise as diurnal heating begins and southwest winds increase from a tightening pressure gradient.

Once the fog dissipates, much of today will be quiet with mostly sunny skies. Southwest winds will be breezy today due to a tightening pressure gradient between low pressure over northern Ontario and high pressure over Michigan's Lower Peninsula. A shortwave will be propagating into the upper Great Plains this evening, reaching the CWA by Saturday afternoon. Widespread showers are expected to develop late this afternoon into tonight and continue into Saturday as southwest winds advect moisture into the CWA Dynamic forcing will be favorable within the baroclinic zone of this shortwave, with strong FGEN expected at 850mb. CAMs are in solid agreement that a southwest to northeast oriented band of rain will develop, with highest QPF amounts of 0.3-0.45" very likely (70% chance) to occur along a line from the Brainerd Lakes to the Twin Ports and north to the northern end of the Gunflint Trail. A rumble of thunder is possible from embedded thunderstorms this evening into tonight, but the potential is low (<15% chance) due to limited instability.

Showers will be tapering off Saturday afternoon as the shortwave trough axis swings through the region. High pressure developing behind this shortwave will bring mostly sunny skies to the area on Sunday with comfortable high temps in the 60s. Dry conditions will linger into Monday before the next chance for rain arrives Monday night as a negatively-tilted trough enters the upper Midwest. Precip onset timing is still uncertain with this early week system, as run- to-run model variations have been trending later in recent runs of the global deterministic models. Despite timing differences, confidence is high (80% chance) that large portions of the CWA will receive a good soaking rain on Tuesday into Wednesday. Global ensemble total QPF means are around 0.5-1.5", with individual members showing the potential for locally higher rainfall amounts.
Severe weather and localized flash flooding potential will need to be monitored as we get closer to early next week. At this time, it's still too uncertain for specifics on impacts and exact location.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Lingering fog from last night is expected to dissipate within the next couple hours as daytime heating occurs and southwest winds increase. Conditions for INL this morning will briefly be MVFR as a low pressure center moves through, bringing light rain showers.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions today into tonight. Widespread rain will be arriving this evening into tonight from southwest to northeast across the region. This will result in deteriorating flight category as lower cigs move in and visibility reduces from rain and fog.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued this morning for all nearshore waters of western Lake Superior until 8 AM CDT.
Observations show that visibility of 1 NM or less will be possible until southwest winds increase and daytime heating begins. Expect winds to turn southwesterly today and become strong up to 25 knots through the day, mainly along the North Shore and for South Shore Waters around and west of the Apostle Islands archipelago. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued today for most nearshore waters, excluding Oak Point to Saxon Harbor. Expect breezy southwest winds to ease this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021- 037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-140>147-150.

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