Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 3:12 AM   Moonset 2:05 PM

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FXUS61 KCAR 030739 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 339 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the area today into Saturday. An occluded front will approach Saturday night...cross the area Sunday...then continue east of the area Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure to our north will extend south across our area today while an upper ridge centered over the Eastern Great Lakes pushes in from the west. This will leave us in a moderately dry corridor between moisture in the Maritimes associated with an upper low south of Nova Scotia, and an occlusion pressing eastward along the western edge of the ridge. The day will begin with some low clouds across the area. The low clouds will likely dissipate by mid to late morning bringing a mostly sunny midday. However, solar heating in the narrow ridge across our area will result in cumulus building up beginning in early afternoon and making for a partly to mostly cloudy afternoon.
Highs in the upper 50s to near 60 will be seasonable.

We will remain in a narrow ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft tonight. Some patchy stratocumulus will linger across the area with some isolated areas of fog in southern areas.
Otherwise, tonight will be tranquil and dry with low near 40.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Models are in pretty good agreement for this ptn of the fcst in that Sat and Sat Ngt look to be fair with intervals of cldnss as weak sfc high pres holds ovr the FA. Sun will begin ptly sunny, then become cldy and breezy in the Aftn as a s/wv an weakening warm occluded frontal zone begins to apch from the W. Shwrs from this system will msly occur ovr the Rgn durg Sun Ngt with most areas receiving arnd a tenth of an inch with lcly 0.15 to 0.20 inches possible, warranting max PoPs in the likely range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Models are in reasonable agreement that a break in shwr activity ovr our FA will occur from mid Morn til Erly Aftn, following the passage of a weakening warm occlusion and ahead of fairly strong secondary cold front and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay. The warmest air in the llvls will arrive durg this tm frame allowing temps to get well into the 60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns. In the meantime, temps abv 700mb will begin falling even ahead of the secondary cold front durg the Aftn, with this vertical differential htg resulting in sct shwrs and even possible thunderstorms msly Nrn/Cntrl areas ahead and alg the secondary cold front mid to late Mon Aftn.

Shwrs will move E and dissipate behind the cold front Mon Eve, with the rest of Mon Ngt and Tue looking to be fair, breezy and cooler, with some llvl cold advcn SC cld cvr possible ovr Nrn areas late Tue Morn into Aftn. Under Can sfc high pres, Tue Ngt looks to be fair with dmnshg winds and cool spcly Nrn areas with good radiational cooling.

Wed will start ptly cldy ovr the Rgn, then turn msly cldy from the W as another weakening occluded sfc low and s/wv alf system apchs from the Midwest. Shwrs from this system are most likely going to impact our FA Wed Ngt into Thu, but longer range models are not in good agreement on rnfl totals durg this tm frame, with the 00z dtmnstc GFS the greatest and the corresponding ECMWF much lighter, subsequently max PoPs were kept in the high chc range. Longer range models are in a little more agreement on possible more sig rnfl toward the weekend, currently just beyond this fcst domain. Temps will be msly near normal for Wed and Thu.

AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: Southern areas will begin the day MVFR in some areas this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with the possible exception of some patchy fog over the south late tonight. Winds will be north to northeast around 5 kt today and tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sat - Sun...all TAF sites VFR with lgt winds.

Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with ocnl shwrs.
Lgt Winds.

Mon...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in Aftn shwrs msly Nrn TAF sites. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in the day.

Mon Ngt - Tue...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds will be light and seas around 1 to 2 ft today and tonight. Some patchy fog or mist may limit visibilities early this morning.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 4 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Fredericton
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Fri -- 02:49 AM ADT     3.54 meters High Tide
Fri -- 04:11 AM ADT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM ADT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:27 AM ADT     3.49 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 10:26 AM ADT     3.50 meters High Tide
Fri -- 11:46 AM ADT     3.50 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM ADT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:40 PM ADT     3.53 meters High Tide
Fri -- 08:07 PM ADT     3.49 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 08:37 PM ADT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:00 PM ADT     3.49 meters High Tide
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Fredericton, New Brunswick, Tide feet

Upper Gagetown
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Fri -- 01:22 AM ADT     2.63 meters High Tide
Fri -- 04:10 AM ADT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:08 AM ADT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:06 AM ADT     2.55 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM ADT     2.65 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:03 PM ADT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:35 PM ADT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:54 PM ADT     2.56 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Gagetown, New Brunswick, Tide feet

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