Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Timber, MT
May 2, 2024 11:53 PM MDT (05:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:45 AM Moonset 12:47 PM |
Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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FXUS65 KBYZ 022117 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 317 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Saturday night...
500 mb low centered over southern Saskatchewan/northeastern MT is producing northwesterly and cyclonic flow over our area late this afternoon. This pattern favors marginal instability and associated scattered showers (20-60% chance) and isolated thunderstorms (20% chance). Any rainfall amounts should be light, generally less than 0.10 inch. The pattern also favors general windy conditions with northwesterly winds 15-25 mph gusting to 40 mph through early this evening. A few isolated gusts to 45-50 mph are possible from showers and thunderstorms.
Near and after sunset tonight, the lower atmosphere will stabilize with the loss of solar heating. The increased stability will cause much of the shower/storm activity and general windy conditions to diminish tonight, with a few exceptions. There will be another 500 mb disturbance that will move southeastward over MT tonight and produce isolated to scattered showers (20-50% chance, greatest near Judith Gap) for areas north of Big Timber- Billings-Colstrip.
An area of concern is the Red Lodge area where the higher resolution models are projecting a period of snow from late this afternoon into tonight, ending around midnight MDT. A combination of ascent from a weak 500 mb disturbance, low-level winds turning northerly favoring upslope precipitation, and mid-level frontogenesis support about 1 to 2 inches of snow in Red Lodge tonight. The mid-level atmosphere will be conditionally unstable which could support heavier snow amounts if the wind direction were to favor upsloping over a deep enough layer, but the depth of the upslope appears unimpressive at this time. So, currently not expecting much in the way of impacts...but will need to be monitored.
On Friday, the 500 mb low will be over the northern Plains with northwesterly flow over our area. Instability looks weaker on Friday, as mid-level temperatures rise a bit and mid-level lapse rates decrease with the upper low moving farther away from our area. Isolated to scattered showers (20-40% chance) will occur but areal coverage should be less than that of today.
Friday night into Saturday night, 500 mb shortwave ridge will move over the region, bringing dry weather. In addition, low-level southeasterly flow on the western side of surface high pressure centered over the northern Plains will cause warming on Saturday via warm air advection and compressional warming. While the shortwave ridge will dominate our weather during this period, it will be moving eastward. So, for Saturday night, the ridge will have moved far enough eastward that an upper low will begin to affect the far western part of our area with the mountains and foothills in Park County, MT having a 15-20% chance of showers (rain/snow showers in the mountains).
Low temperatures will generally be in the 20s and 30s tonight and Friday night and 40s Saturday night. High temperatures will mainly be in the upper 40s to 50s Friday then 60s Saturday. RMS
Sunday through Thursday...
The extended period remains active with the potential for a dynamic weather system impacting the region early next week from Sunday into at least Wednesday. Potential impacts include strong winds, moderate to heavy precipitation, and cooler temperatures.
Note: we are NOT looking at a significant rain on snow event during this time as snow is expected in the mountains. However, these conditions will likely create hazardous outdoor conditions, especially for young livestock. Make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast as details will continue to change.
Sunday will start out dry and warm with highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. In the east, where the warmest temperatures are forecast, strong southeasterly winds will develop by the afternoon, with the NBM giving a 60-90% chance for gusts of 40 mph or more. Along with this, chances of precipitation, with a rumble of thunder or two, will increase across the region Sunday afternoon and evening (40-80% chance, highest over the mountains).
This will mark the beginning of a potentially active week ahead.
This active weather will come from a dynamic upper low that is forecast to move into the western CONUS this weekend and up through Montana and the Dakotas Monday into Wednesday. Uncertainty remains on how long the impacts from this low stick around, but cluster analysis suggests continued lower heights over the Pacific NW will allow for impacts to remain through at least mid- week.
Uncertainty also remains in the initial track of the low, which plays a major role in the potential impacts across our region. If the track of the low follows a favorable path, we could be in for a good event with rain, snow and wind across the region. At this time, the NBM gives a 60-80% chance for wind gusts of at least 40 mph Monday and Monday night across the area and a 70-90% chance Tuesday (highest chances in the east). The NBM also gives a 50-70% chance of at least a half inch of rain across the region Sunday through Wednesday morning. One thing to note, these probabilities increased slightly over the last 24 hours. As far as snow goes, we are expecting mainly snow in the mountains as snow levels drop quickly Sunday evening into Monday. With the main snow pack estimated to be above 7000 feet and snow levels having a high chance of dropping below that, we are NOT expecting a rain on snow event this time around. While rain is forecast in the east with the warmer temperatures, dynamic cooling with the deep upper low could cause temperatures to remain cooler than expected Tuesday and Wednesday. With this, there are a few members in the ensembles putting impactful snow in the east, likely due to them picking up on cooler temperatures. This will be something to watch going forward. Arends
AVIATION
Scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will continue to impact the region this afternoon before diminishing in coverage this evening. This activity has the potential to produce local MVFR conditions, a combination of rain, snow and graupel, and wind gusts up to about 40 kts. With the light snow showers, frequent mountain obscurations will occur through the evening into tonight.
Along with the showers, the 20-30 kt NW wind gusts occuring today will decrease this evening. Expected isolated showers to impact the region once again Friday. Arends/JKL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 031/053 031/067 043/075 045/055 042/055 041/053 039/057 22/W 00/U 03/R 67/R 34/R 46/R 56/R LVM 028/053 028/064 041/066 038/049 037/050 035/050 035/055 31/B 00/B 16/T 88/R 45/O 56/O 56/O HDN 029/053 027/070 042/080 044/057 040/056 039/053 038/057 22/W 00/U 03/R 67/R 54/R 56/R 56/R MLS 031/051 028/065 045/080 048/062 040/051 038/052 039/057 41/B 00/U 01/N 67/T 65/R 55/R 54/R 4BQ 029/051 028/068 045/080 048/060 040/054 038/050 038/055 31/B 00/U 01/N 57/T 64/R 55/R 44/R BHK 028/050 026/063 039/072 048/062 038/052 035/052 034/055 51/N 00/U 01/N 67/T 75/R 55/R 44/R SHR 026/051 026/067 041/076 041/055 038/057 037/052 034/054 32/W 00/U 02/R 67/T 44/R 55/O 56/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 317 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Saturday night...
500 mb low centered over southern Saskatchewan/northeastern MT is producing northwesterly and cyclonic flow over our area late this afternoon. This pattern favors marginal instability and associated scattered showers (20-60% chance) and isolated thunderstorms (20% chance). Any rainfall amounts should be light, generally less than 0.10 inch. The pattern also favors general windy conditions with northwesterly winds 15-25 mph gusting to 40 mph through early this evening. A few isolated gusts to 45-50 mph are possible from showers and thunderstorms.
Near and after sunset tonight, the lower atmosphere will stabilize with the loss of solar heating. The increased stability will cause much of the shower/storm activity and general windy conditions to diminish tonight, with a few exceptions. There will be another 500 mb disturbance that will move southeastward over MT tonight and produce isolated to scattered showers (20-50% chance, greatest near Judith Gap) for areas north of Big Timber- Billings-Colstrip.
An area of concern is the Red Lodge area where the higher resolution models are projecting a period of snow from late this afternoon into tonight, ending around midnight MDT. A combination of ascent from a weak 500 mb disturbance, low-level winds turning northerly favoring upslope precipitation, and mid-level frontogenesis support about 1 to 2 inches of snow in Red Lodge tonight. The mid-level atmosphere will be conditionally unstable which could support heavier snow amounts if the wind direction were to favor upsloping over a deep enough layer, but the depth of the upslope appears unimpressive at this time. So, currently not expecting much in the way of impacts...but will need to be monitored.
On Friday, the 500 mb low will be over the northern Plains with northwesterly flow over our area. Instability looks weaker on Friday, as mid-level temperatures rise a bit and mid-level lapse rates decrease with the upper low moving farther away from our area. Isolated to scattered showers (20-40% chance) will occur but areal coverage should be less than that of today.
Friday night into Saturday night, 500 mb shortwave ridge will move over the region, bringing dry weather. In addition, low-level southeasterly flow on the western side of surface high pressure centered over the northern Plains will cause warming on Saturday via warm air advection and compressional warming. While the shortwave ridge will dominate our weather during this period, it will be moving eastward. So, for Saturday night, the ridge will have moved far enough eastward that an upper low will begin to affect the far western part of our area with the mountains and foothills in Park County, MT having a 15-20% chance of showers (rain/snow showers in the mountains).
Low temperatures will generally be in the 20s and 30s tonight and Friday night and 40s Saturday night. High temperatures will mainly be in the upper 40s to 50s Friday then 60s Saturday. RMS
Sunday through Thursday...
The extended period remains active with the potential for a dynamic weather system impacting the region early next week from Sunday into at least Wednesday. Potential impacts include strong winds, moderate to heavy precipitation, and cooler temperatures.
Note: we are NOT looking at a significant rain on snow event during this time as snow is expected in the mountains. However, these conditions will likely create hazardous outdoor conditions, especially for young livestock. Make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast as details will continue to change.
Sunday will start out dry and warm with highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. In the east, where the warmest temperatures are forecast, strong southeasterly winds will develop by the afternoon, with the NBM giving a 60-90% chance for gusts of 40 mph or more. Along with this, chances of precipitation, with a rumble of thunder or two, will increase across the region Sunday afternoon and evening (40-80% chance, highest over the mountains).
This will mark the beginning of a potentially active week ahead.
This active weather will come from a dynamic upper low that is forecast to move into the western CONUS this weekend and up through Montana and the Dakotas Monday into Wednesday. Uncertainty remains on how long the impacts from this low stick around, but cluster analysis suggests continued lower heights over the Pacific NW will allow for impacts to remain through at least mid- week.
Uncertainty also remains in the initial track of the low, which plays a major role in the potential impacts across our region. If the track of the low follows a favorable path, we could be in for a good event with rain, snow and wind across the region. At this time, the NBM gives a 60-80% chance for wind gusts of at least 40 mph Monday and Monday night across the area and a 70-90% chance Tuesday (highest chances in the east). The NBM also gives a 50-70% chance of at least a half inch of rain across the region Sunday through Wednesday morning. One thing to note, these probabilities increased slightly over the last 24 hours. As far as snow goes, we are expecting mainly snow in the mountains as snow levels drop quickly Sunday evening into Monday. With the main snow pack estimated to be above 7000 feet and snow levels having a high chance of dropping below that, we are NOT expecting a rain on snow event this time around. While rain is forecast in the east with the warmer temperatures, dynamic cooling with the deep upper low could cause temperatures to remain cooler than expected Tuesday and Wednesday. With this, there are a few members in the ensembles putting impactful snow in the east, likely due to them picking up on cooler temperatures. This will be something to watch going forward. Arends
AVIATION
Scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will continue to impact the region this afternoon before diminishing in coverage this evening. This activity has the potential to produce local MVFR conditions, a combination of rain, snow and graupel, and wind gusts up to about 40 kts. With the light snow showers, frequent mountain obscurations will occur through the evening into tonight.
Along with the showers, the 20-30 kt NW wind gusts occuring today will decrease this evening. Expected isolated showers to impact the region once again Friday. Arends/JKL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 031/053 031/067 043/075 045/055 042/055 041/053 039/057 22/W 00/U 03/R 67/R 34/R 46/R 56/R LVM 028/053 028/064 041/066 038/049 037/050 035/050 035/055 31/B 00/B 16/T 88/R 45/O 56/O 56/O HDN 029/053 027/070 042/080 044/057 040/056 039/053 038/057 22/W 00/U 03/R 67/R 54/R 56/R 56/R MLS 031/051 028/065 045/080 048/062 040/051 038/052 039/057 41/B 00/U 01/N 67/T 65/R 55/R 54/R 4BQ 029/051 028/068 045/080 048/060 040/054 038/050 038/055 31/B 00/U 01/N 57/T 64/R 55/R 44/R BHK 028/050 026/063 039/072 048/062 038/052 035/052 034/055 51/N 00/U 01/N 67/T 75/R 55/R 44/R SHR 026/051 026/067 041/076 041/055 038/057 037/052 034/054 32/W 00/U 02/R 67/T 44/R 55/O 56/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
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Billings, MT,
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