Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 3:22 AM   Moonset 2:19 PM

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LHZ347 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Light Mi Including Bois Blanc Island- 949 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Numerous showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Light winds. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 031346 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 946 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today.

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Rain showers will continue to move west to east across northern Michigan this morning, exiting the area completely later this afternoon. Behind this, sunny skies will take hold through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures look to warm into the 60s later today after rain chances end -- and may even warm into the low 70s for some areas along and south of M-55.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A front arcs east and then south from the low, across western upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of northern MI by early this afternoon.

Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon, and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly clear skies across the area by sunset.

Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the immediate coastlines.

For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight.

Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated across North America will influence the sensible weather for the long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid next week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next week with the potential for heavier showers and possible thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Period of low cigs expected this morning, along with widespread showers, as a cold front crosses the area. The rain will end from west to east today, beginning mid-morning, and cigs will improve shortly after. After an early mix of MVFR to IFR cigs, all sites will improve to VFR...MBL by late morning, APN by late afternoon.

Winds become w to wnw and a touch gusty behind the front today.
Lighter winds tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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