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SLZ024 Expires:202405030915;;522980 Fzus61 Kbuf 030235 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 1035 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
slz022-024-030915- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 1035 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
Overnight - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Monday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Becoming mainly clear. Tuesday - North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 030219 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1019 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
After lingering showers in far northeastern Vermont wind down, dry conditions in the wake of a cold front will continue overnight. Some low clouds and fog will be possible overnight, then skies should become partly to mostly sunny on Friday. Some rain showers will enter northern New York on Saturday, and the entire region for Sunday. Aside from the cooler and wetter weather on Sunday, largely seasonable weather is expected over the next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 1009 PM EDT Thursday...No major changes were needed to the forecast with this update, only some minor tweaks to reflect recent observations. Some lower cloud cover can be seen across the northern portion of the forecast area, with some mist and fog beginning to develop in some locations, although mostly clear skies are still found further south.

Previous Discussion... A cluster of rain showers is currently skirting through far northeastern Vermont late this afternoon.
It is associated with a cold pool aloft as heights fall in the base of the upper trough swinging southeastward behind the surface cold front that is now well east of our region. The pressure gradient behind the front is weak such that winds have only been around 10 to 15 MPH, and the northwesterly winds should diminish, as will any lingering light rain showers/sprinkles, after sunset.

While anticyclonic flow will lead to continued dry weather overnight, the question remains as to how much fog and/or low stratus develops. Expect our mountains to be obscured by low clouds overnight due to a subsidence inversion and lingering moisture. Otherwise, have offered patchy fog largely where it rained this afternoon/early evening in northern/northeastern Vermont. However, conditionally areas of fog will develop in portions of northern New York where skies clear out. Compared to areas farther east, 925 millibar flow looks particularly light overnight. In contrast, light southeasterly flow suggests stratus will be more prominent east of the Green Mountains.

For Friday into Friday night, no significant weather is expected with ridging building into our region. Temperatures have trended a touch warmer, with most likely highs now exceeding 70 in just about all of the Champlain Valley in addition to the St.
Lawrence Valley. The aforementioned southeasterly flow will dampen warming in central and eastern Vermont a bit, but it should be a largely pleasant day once morning shallow clouds dissipate. Towards the very end of the period shower chances develop across our western areas, but there is quite a bit of model disagreement on if the upper level forcing is sufficient to get enough lift to support precipitation. The incoming wave looks to peter out as it runs into a strong ridge, so mainly we will see increasing cloud cover and mild temperatures with an increase in southerly wind Friday night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...PWATs rise to 2 standard deviations above normal on Sunday as moisture with Gulf of Mexico origin looks to overspread the region. Forecast soundings show a lack of surface- based instability, so showers with brief locally heavy downpours look to be the main risk. While there could be embedded thunder due to elevated instability, no organized thunderstorms are anticipated.
It will be quite breezy as well, with persistent southeast winds gusting 30-35 mph at times. Rainfall chances wise, it does look like areas east of the Adirondacks should stay dry for most of Saturday.
This is because while a shortwave trough moves eastward from the Great Lakes, it encounters a stout omega block, and therefore the best forcing is diverted north of our region on Saturday. While there should be plenty of cloud cover, have utilized the 75th percentile of model guidance for Champlain Valley and point east.
Highs should top out right around 70, or a few degrees above climatological norm for early May across the Champlain Valley.
Expect 60s elsewhere, except 50s in the high terrain. Heading into Sunday, the omega block finally moves east, allowing the shortwave trough to approach closer to our CWA albeit in a deamplified state.
This means that PoPs increase to the likely category with scattered to perhaps numerous showers on Sunday. While there would likely be widespread wetting rainfall, QPF amounts are quite manageable in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range. Indeed, the MMEFS shows none of our area rivers going into action stage.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...The overall weather pattern heading into the first full week of May can be described as unsettled with no real significant warm up or impactful weather. Unsurprisingly, the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook favors near normal temperatures and leans towards above normal rainfall. For reference, typical highs for North Country in early May are in the low to mid 60s, while average overnight lows are in the mid 30s to low 40s. The upper level pattern features a positively tilted omega block sandwiched between an anomalously deep trough across the Rockies/northern Great Plains and another trough over eastern Quebec/Newfoundland. H5 height anomalies favor a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, as positive H5 height anomalies give way to near normal values. Depending on the timing of the associated surface cold front, ingredients may exist for a few stronger storms. But with the potential storms being 5 days away, have largely stuck to a blend of guidance for this time frame.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00Z Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions currently at 6 out of our 7 sites with low MVFR cigs at EFK. Highest confidence of cigs going IFR in the next 1 to 2 hours is at EFK with eventually LIFR/VLIFR developing in low clouds and fog with vis around 1/2sm toward midnight. At our other sites anticipated lower clouds in the MVFR range to redevelop over the next 1 to 3 hours, with localized IFR cigs at BTV/SLK/PBG and MPV possible toward 06z. Have handle these sites with tempo groups to highlight the 30 to 40% probability of IFR, with higher confidence of IFR cigs after 06z, as low level flow becomes strongly blocked and moisture is trapped below subsidence inversion. Conditions improve to MVFR after 12z Friday and mostly VFR by 15z, except some lingering MVFR cigs in the mtn taf sites of EFK/SLK and MPV. North/northeast winds at 4 to 8 knots this evening will become mostly light and terrain driven by 03z and continue into Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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