Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Altoona, WI
May 3, 2024 3:51 AM CDT (08:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:50 AM Moonset 1:51 PM |
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 030757 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 257 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer and sunny today and Sunday with a chance for another round of rain on Saturday.
- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Today through Sunday... High pressure today will provide for clear skies and plenty of sun during the day. These clear skies overnight have also allowed for temperatures to cool into the 40s. These cooler temperatures near the dew points have allowed for mist and fog to form. This is mainly occurring across far eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. Once the sun rises and temperatures start to rise, this fog and mist will clear quickly. Tonight into Saturday morning, possibly into the afternoon in western Wisconsin, another round of rain showers is expected. As mentioned in the previous discussion this is tied to a shortwave aloft and its associated front at the surface.
With the speed this is forecast to pass through and the moisture available up to around a quarter of an inch is expected. Not seeing much in the way of convection occurring with little instability and this matches up with the lack of general thunder in SPC Day 1 and Day 2 for us. With high pressure moving back in behind the front, clearing skies should arrive Saturday evening to Saturday night. Temperatures in the 60s for the sunny days today and Sunday with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s under cloudy skies on Saturday.
Monday through Thursday... Monday will start with warm air advection warming us into the 70s. The high pressure should hang around long enough to keep most of Monday warm and dry, although some rain could start moving in later in the day across western Minnesota. This continues to look like a very unsettled period with a wide spread among the ensembles systems. Across this period from Monday night to Thursday each six hour block has at least a few members in the GEFS, ENS, or GEPS with QPF. This is spread across the period with one period having the highest confidence Monday night into Tuesday morning. Which matches when the deterministic models bring the main synoptic forcing through the Upper Midwest. This is related to amplified trough moving east of the Rockies during this period. As this system occludes and stalls out of the north central CONUS that PoP get less certain and lower. With this weaker and broader forcing there is much less confidence in where rain could occur. With the rain chances and clouds the rest of the week will be cooler with temperature more in the upper 50s to upper 60s rather than Monday's 70s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Mostly clear skies over Minnesota tonight with some lingering clouds over Wisconsin. We have seen some mist develop in Minnesota and we will see patchy MVFR visibilities tonight.
Best chances are for fog and mist are in Wisconsin. At EAU and RNH IFR and at time LIFR possible. Once temperatures start to rise after sunrise VFR is expected through the day. Rain chances will move in late in this period as we get into Saturday morning. Rain is excluded for now in most TAFs as the most likely start time makes more sense for inclusion in the 12Z TAFs.
KMSP... Clear skies expected overnight into Friday morning.
Light crosswinds overnight, but it will shift to a more westerly wind tomorrow before it starts gusting again. The next round of rain showers are expected Saturday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...Mainly VFR. AM MVFR/-RA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 257 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer and sunny today and Sunday with a chance for another round of rain on Saturday.
- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Today through Sunday... High pressure today will provide for clear skies and plenty of sun during the day. These clear skies overnight have also allowed for temperatures to cool into the 40s. These cooler temperatures near the dew points have allowed for mist and fog to form. This is mainly occurring across far eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. Once the sun rises and temperatures start to rise, this fog and mist will clear quickly. Tonight into Saturday morning, possibly into the afternoon in western Wisconsin, another round of rain showers is expected. As mentioned in the previous discussion this is tied to a shortwave aloft and its associated front at the surface.
With the speed this is forecast to pass through and the moisture available up to around a quarter of an inch is expected. Not seeing much in the way of convection occurring with little instability and this matches up with the lack of general thunder in SPC Day 1 and Day 2 for us. With high pressure moving back in behind the front, clearing skies should arrive Saturday evening to Saturday night. Temperatures in the 60s for the sunny days today and Sunday with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s under cloudy skies on Saturday.
Monday through Thursday... Monday will start with warm air advection warming us into the 70s. The high pressure should hang around long enough to keep most of Monday warm and dry, although some rain could start moving in later in the day across western Minnesota. This continues to look like a very unsettled period with a wide spread among the ensembles systems. Across this period from Monday night to Thursday each six hour block has at least a few members in the GEFS, ENS, or GEPS with QPF. This is spread across the period with one period having the highest confidence Monday night into Tuesday morning. Which matches when the deterministic models bring the main synoptic forcing through the Upper Midwest. This is related to amplified trough moving east of the Rockies during this period. As this system occludes and stalls out of the north central CONUS that PoP get less certain and lower. With this weaker and broader forcing there is much less confidence in where rain could occur. With the rain chances and clouds the rest of the week will be cooler with temperature more in the upper 50s to upper 60s rather than Monday's 70s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Mostly clear skies over Minnesota tonight with some lingering clouds over Wisconsin. We have seen some mist develop in Minnesota and we will see patchy MVFR visibilities tonight.
Best chances are for fog and mist are in Wisconsin. At EAU and RNH IFR and at time LIFR possible. Once temperatures start to rise after sunrise VFR is expected through the day. Rain chances will move in late in this period as we get into Saturday morning. Rain is excluded for now in most TAFs as the most likely start time makes more sense for inclusion in the 12Z TAFs.
KMSP... Clear skies expected overnight into Friday morning.
Light crosswinds overnight, but it will shift to a more westerly wind tomorrow before it starts gusting again. The next round of rain showers are expected Saturday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...Mainly VFR. AM MVFR/-RA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEAU CHIPPEWA VALLEY RGNL,WI | 6 sm | 55 min | WSW 04 | 1/4 sm | -- | Fog | 48°F | 46°F | 93% | 29.90 |
| KLUM MENOMONIE MUNISCORE FIELD,WI | 22 sm | 16 min | calm | 1/4 sm | Overcast | 43°F | 43°F | 100% | 29.91 |
La Crosse, WI,
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