Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:36 AM   Moonset 2:33 PM

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FXUS61 KBTV 030850 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 450 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather persists through Saturday, except over northern New York where a few light rain showers are possible on Saturday.
Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
Widespread rainfall returns for the day on Sunday before dry conditions return to start next week. Conditions mid week through Friday are trending wetter with daily chances of rain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...The region is currently between a shortwave trough digging south over the Atlantic and a ridge building in from the west. Low clouds are lingering from weak northeasterly flow and trapped low-level moisture, and they should persist for the rest of the night. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys where clearing has occurred, particularly where it rained yesterday. Due to the cloud cover and some light winds, temperatures should not fall much more tonight, so lows will generally be in the 40s. The ridge will build in during the day today and it will initially clear out the lingering low clouds and fog. Combined with warm advection from increasing southerly flow, temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and low 70s, with the highest temperatures expected in the St. Lawrence Valley. The sun will be short lived as high clouds ahead of an occluded front will spread into the region not long after the low clouds depart, so much of the sun will likely be filtered. The front will be able to spread a few showers into northern New York tonight, but it will be weakly forced and falling apart as it arrives, so precipitation amounts should be under a tenth of an inch. High pressure situated over Atlantic Canada will be stubborn and prevent the rain from reaching Vermont. The high remains in place for Saturday and the day should be be mostly dry, even over New York, where at most there will be a couple light showers. The high clouds should remain in place but an absence of lower clouds should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across the region.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Ensemble and deterministic models have trended much drier Saturday night keeping the highly amplified ridge axis over the North Country. This will delay the onset of precipitation while flow aloft continues to stream ample moisture northward. As such, QPF was cut from the overnight hours with only a few hundredths possible over northern New York and nothing for Vermont. Temperatures will remain mild in the 40s to low 50s. Frontal passage is still expected through Sunday, moving quickly west to east as ridging shifts eastward.
Total QPF should be less than 0.5" with general amounts ranging from 0.05-0.33". Highest amounts will be across the Greens of southern Vermont with amounts decreasing northward. Temperatures will be seasonal in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Post frontal thermal advection will be near neutral given the replacing airmass will originate over the central Plains. As ridge amplifies Monday/Tuesday, dry conditions will prevail with temperatures warming above seasonal averages into the upper 60s to low 70s.

The next wave continues to be projected to move into the North Country Tuesday night through Wednesday night possibly bringing another round of elevated PWATs, decent instability, and some thunderstorm chances. Instability trends have decreased from previous model runs, but will continue to monitor for potential of stronger cells. For late week, guidance has trended wetter with mean longwave troughing stagnating between the Great Lakes region and the North Country. This pattern would favor active weather and possibly keeping daily rain chances through the end of the week. With fast flow aloft, any troughs moving through will be moving quickly. Temperatures are expected to remain around seasonal averages with colder air locked well north.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 12Z Friday...Ceilings have been gradually lowering this evening and should continue to do so overnight. Confidence is relatively high that ceilings will reach IFR at BTV while confidence is lower whether ceilings will reach IFR at PBG and MPV. EFK and SLK should hold onto their low clouds and fog overnight before it scours out after daybreak. However, the IFR cloud deck at SLK could briefly scatter out a couple times overnight. The IFR ceilings at RUT are expected to remain the entire night but there is lower confidence there. Ceilings will rise quickly after daybreak and all terminals should be VFR by late morning. There should only be high clouds during the day today but the clouds will begin to lower and thicken tonight, though they should remain VFR for the first part of the night. Winds are relatively light and are generally northerly but they should transition to southerly during the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Sorel
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Fri -- 12:25 AM EDT     1.15 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM EDT     1.13 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 11:59 AM EDT     1.13 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:52 PM EDT     1.11 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
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Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet

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