Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 2:29 PM

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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 913 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Overnight - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Patchy fog. Numerous showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 030718 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 318 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today.

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A front arcs east and then south from the low, across western upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of northern MI by early this afternoon.

Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon, and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly clear skies across the area by sunset.

Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the immediate coastlines.

For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight.

Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated across North America will influence the sensible weather for the long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid next week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next week with the potential for heavier showers and possible thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Still expect MVFR to IFR producing cigs to spread across the area from southwest to northeast this morning. Showers, with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms, will accompany this band of lower clouds. Will likely see some vis restrictions in the heavier showers. Cigs will lift from west to east later this morning through the afternoon as a cold front crosses the region. No significant wind concerns.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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