Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 1:58 PM

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FXUS63 KMPX 031120 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 620 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and sunny today and Sunday with a chance for another round of rain on Saturday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Today through Sunday... High pressure today will provide for clear skies and plenty of sun during the day. These clear skies overnight have also allowed for temperatures to cool into the 40s. These cooler temperatures near the dew points have allowed for mist and fog to form. This is mainly occurring across far eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. Once the sun rises and temperatures start to rise, this fog and mist will clear quickly. Tonight into Saturday morning, possibly into the afternoon in western Wisconsin, another round of rain showers is expected. As mentioned in the previous discussion this is tied to a shortwave aloft and its associated front at the surface.
With the speed this is forecast to pass through and the moisture available up to around a quarter of an inch is expected. Not seeing much in the way of convection occurring with little instability and this matches up with the lack of general thunder in SPC Day 1 and Day 2 for us. With high pressure moving back in behind the front, clearing skies should arrive Saturday evening to Saturday night. Temperatures in the 60s for the sunny days today and Sunday with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s under cloudy skies on Saturday.

Monday through Thursday... Monday will start with warm air advection warming us into the 70s. The high pressure should hang around long enough to keep most of Monday warm and dry, although some rain could start moving in later in the day across western Minnesota. This continues to look like a very unsettled period with a wide spread among the ensembles systems. Across this period from Monday night to Thursday each six hour block has at least a few members in the GEFS, ENS, or GEPS with QPF. This is spread across the period with one period having the highest confidence Monday night into Tuesday morning. Which matches when the deterministic models bring the main synoptic forcing through the Upper Midwest. This is related to amplified trough moving east of the Rockies during this period. As this system occludes and stalls out of the north central CONUS that PoP get less certain and lower. With this weaker and broader forcing there is much less confidence in where rain could occur. With the rain chances and clouds the rest of the week will be cooler with temperature more in the upper 50s to upper 60s rather than Monday's 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR across all sites but EAU this morning. The fog at EAU will lift early in the period as the temperature begin to warm.
After the fog lifts it will be a VFR day across all terminals.
Rain will move from west to east across Minnesota and into Wisconsin this evening into Saturday morning. MVFR will be the main category as it rains.

KMSP...VFR today and any fog this morning should remain in the river valleys rather than at the airfield. Cross wind wil continue this morning, but winds will remain light. Winds will increase later this morning, but the winds should shift to the west by that point. Rain chances increase tonight with MVFR expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT PM...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G30 kts

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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