Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nelson, WI
May 3, 2024 1:15 AM CDT (06:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 2:52 AM Moonset 1:54 PM |
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 030522 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1222 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Clearing skies tonight will bring very nice weather for Friday.
- Unsettled weather pattern brings additional rain chances this weekend and early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
As this morning's showers slowly push to northeast, low stratus and areas of drizzle have remained. Some rain still exists over western WI but will clear our counties within a few hours. Total rainfall has ranged from around 0.1-0.2" in western MN, to 0.5-0.7" in the Twin Cities and our WI counties, to well over an inch across portions of southern and southeastern MN. Another good soaking rain for our region. The rest of today looks gloomy as clouds will have a hard time clearing before sunset. Due to this, have lowered highs by a couple degrees. Rising 500 hPa heights and lessening moisture overnight will help clear skies allowing for a mostly sunny Friday with highs in the 60s. A few 70s are even possible in from southern MN to western WI. In all, it should be perfect day to end the work week. A shortwave will pass through Friday night into Saturday morning, spawning a band of showers along a cold front. PoPs have increased as models continue to converge with best chances of showers expected from southern MN Friday night into Saturday morning. Ensemble guidance favors another 0.25" to even over 0.5" of QPF for this round of precip.
Skies should begin to clear behind the front, leaving for a relatively nice late Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs Saturday are forecast in the lower 60s. Sunday continues to look like the nicest day of the weekend as highs warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s under sunny skies and light winds.
Long-range guidance continues to forecast a strong, amplified trough ejecting east of the Rockies early next week. This would cause strong, southerly warm air and moisture advection into the Plains region. Development of showers and thunderstorms would eventually occur along surface frontal boundaries as the ejecting trough dynamics produce surface cyclogenesis in the High Plains. Latest model trends have also hinted that this trough will be more amplified and dig farther into the Southern Plains, becoming more negatively-tilted before it pivots north-northeast. With this knowledge, it would seem reasonable to expect models to slow down the trough as stronger systems usually take more time to develop.
Monday continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s) but it seems more likely that rain chances should hold off until at least Monday night. Guidance shows a heavier, convective rain along the cold front as the trough swings through the Central Plains, likely making for a very wet Monday night into Tuesday. Any strong thunderstorms in our region will depend on how far north instability can travel.
After Tuesday, forecast model spread begins to increase but the general, loose consensus is that the trough will evolve into a cutoff low and remain somewhere over the northern CONUS through mid- week. Thus, we could be dealing with additional periods of rain and sustained cloud cover through most of the week within the upper- level cyclonic flow. Temperatures also would likely not be as warm as Sunday or Monday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Mostly clear skies over Minnesota tonight with some lingering clouds over Wisconsin. We have seen some mist develop in Minnesota and we will see patchy MVFR visibilities tonight.
Best chances are for fog and mist are in Wisconsin. At EAU and RNH IFR and at time LIFR possible. Once temperatures start to rise after sunrise VFR is expected through the day. Rain chances will move in late in this period as we get into Saturday morning. Rain is excluded for now in most TAFs as the most likely start time makes more sense for inclusion in the 12Z TAFs.
KMSP... Clear skies expected overnight into Friday morning.
Light crosswinds overnight, but it will shift to a more westerly wind tomorrow before it starts gusting again. The next round of rain showers are expected Saturday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...Mainly VFR. AM MVFR/-RA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1222 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Clearing skies tonight will bring very nice weather for Friday.
- Unsettled weather pattern brings additional rain chances this weekend and early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
As this morning's showers slowly push to northeast, low stratus and areas of drizzle have remained. Some rain still exists over western WI but will clear our counties within a few hours. Total rainfall has ranged from around 0.1-0.2" in western MN, to 0.5-0.7" in the Twin Cities and our WI counties, to well over an inch across portions of southern and southeastern MN. Another good soaking rain for our region. The rest of today looks gloomy as clouds will have a hard time clearing before sunset. Due to this, have lowered highs by a couple degrees. Rising 500 hPa heights and lessening moisture overnight will help clear skies allowing for a mostly sunny Friday with highs in the 60s. A few 70s are even possible in from southern MN to western WI. In all, it should be perfect day to end the work week. A shortwave will pass through Friday night into Saturday morning, spawning a band of showers along a cold front. PoPs have increased as models continue to converge with best chances of showers expected from southern MN Friday night into Saturday morning. Ensemble guidance favors another 0.25" to even over 0.5" of QPF for this round of precip.
Skies should begin to clear behind the front, leaving for a relatively nice late Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs Saturday are forecast in the lower 60s. Sunday continues to look like the nicest day of the weekend as highs warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s under sunny skies and light winds.
Long-range guidance continues to forecast a strong, amplified trough ejecting east of the Rockies early next week. This would cause strong, southerly warm air and moisture advection into the Plains region. Development of showers and thunderstorms would eventually occur along surface frontal boundaries as the ejecting trough dynamics produce surface cyclogenesis in the High Plains. Latest model trends have also hinted that this trough will be more amplified and dig farther into the Southern Plains, becoming more negatively-tilted before it pivots north-northeast. With this knowledge, it would seem reasonable to expect models to slow down the trough as stronger systems usually take more time to develop.
Monday continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s) but it seems more likely that rain chances should hold off until at least Monday night. Guidance shows a heavier, convective rain along the cold front as the trough swings through the Central Plains, likely making for a very wet Monday night into Tuesday. Any strong thunderstorms in our region will depend on how far north instability can travel.
After Tuesday, forecast model spread begins to increase but the general, loose consensus is that the trough will evolve into a cutoff low and remain somewhere over the northern CONUS through mid- week. Thus, we could be dealing with additional periods of rain and sustained cloud cover through most of the week within the upper- level cyclonic flow. Temperatures also would likely not be as warm as Sunday or Monday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Mostly clear skies over Minnesota tonight with some lingering clouds over Wisconsin. We have seen some mist develop in Minnesota and we will see patchy MVFR visibilities tonight.
Best chances are for fog and mist are in Wisconsin. At EAU and RNH IFR and at time LIFR possible. Once temperatures start to rise after sunrise VFR is expected through the day. Rain chances will move in late in this period as we get into Saturday morning. Rain is excluded for now in most TAFs as the most likely start time makes more sense for inclusion in the 12Z TAFs.
KMSP... Clear skies expected overnight into Friday morning.
Light crosswinds overnight, but it will shift to a more westerly wind tomorrow before it starts gusting again. The next round of rain showers are expected Saturday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...Mainly VFR. AM MVFR/-RA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
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