Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Tawas, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 342 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Long wave trough is getting shunted to the east today as Pacific air begins to flood into western North America. Low amplitude ridging across the Pacific Northwest/western Canada downstream of a Pacific-basin omega block. Short wave trough zipping across the Great Lakes today...assisting with the warm advection driven snow event across the forecast area earlier today. Speaking of which: 850mb 0C isotherm pushing into Wisconsin... which is a harbinger of what is to come later this week. Remnants of weekend Arctic high (1038mb) centered along the Ohio River...weak low pressure (1015mb) along the Minnesota/Dakotas border...surface trough/shallow cold front extends northeast into northern Ontario with a stubby warm front into southern Minnesota/Iowa.

Flow pattern expected to become a zonal Pacific-dominated one as the week progresses with a couple of short wave troughs of note. First quick moving wave passes by Wednesday...while a stronger wave digs into the Plains Thursday and lifts across the region Friday. A third system swings through for the coming weekend. Surface trough/cold front across northwest Ontario drops into Lake Superior tonight but that is probably as far south at it will get as deep layer warm air advection and subsequent height rises continue across the Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures warm above freezing for the first time in what seems like forever by Tuesday morning...and surge to +8C by evening. A true Alberta Clipper associated with Wednesday's short wave trough will slide by well to the north of Michigan...its associated cold front will try to edge its way into the state from the north Wednesday. Probably won't make it very far south given the low amplitude nature of its parent short wave trough
More substantial system
really another Clipper but developing farther south across the northern Plains...will take aim on the Great Lakes in the Thursday time frame. This system looks like it will whiplash from warm to cold...so definitely some impacts to think about. Another weaker system may impact the state this weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Lingering light precip/drizzle/freezing drizzle issues tonight/ Tuesday: Starting out this afternoon with some lingering west/ southwest flow light snow/flurries as mid level moisture strips out...CBL depth is shallow given warm advection. What is interesting however is bottom part of the inversion is saturated...and at temperatures at or above -10C. So while it is still cold enough for a bit of a lake response...some questions about ice nucleation potential raise the question of whether we can squeeze out some flurries and/or light freezing drizzle at least this evening. Couple of recent PIREPS over northwest Lower reporting riming...would prefer to see some reports of clear/mixed icing to better corroborate this idea but at least the icing reports indicating small supercooled cloud droplets.

During the day Tuesday a band of mostly mid level moisture crosses the forecast area...along with steeper mid level lapse rates but with a dry layer of air below that should preclude much in the way of measurable precipitation. But there are indications of shallow instability within southwest flow off Lake Michigan...and now definitely at temperatures that should preclude ice nucleation. So wondering if there is still a chance for some drizzle/freezing drizzle along the Lake Michigan shoreline (surface temperatures will be close to or maybe above freezing).

Midweek warming trend ahead of a system expected to bring rain (!)
to northern Michigan Thursday...: Rather remarkable stretch of cold weather (unless you hate winter like myself): last time we saw a high temperature above normal was the day before Thanksgiving (26 November)...and we haven't been close to a normal high temperature since. But that is expected to change over the next several days (normal highs for mid December range from 30 to 34 degrees); consensus forecast highs for Wednesday are still in the 30s even with a quick shot of colder air so have tempered those down a bit especially across eastern Upper as highs may stay in the 20s.
Thursday looks to be the warmest day for certain with strong southerly flow ahead of the approaching upstream system...
temperatures expected to be within several degrees either side of 40. Nice surge of moisture with precipitable water values at or above 0.75 inch which is a +2 to +3 sigma standardized anomaly for mid December. So a widespread rain-on-snow event will unfold Thursday...there is a non-zero probability that precipitation could start as freezing rain in the race between above freezing surface temperatures and precipitation starting.
This is not expected to be hydrologically significant given the next bullet in the long term section below...

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 342 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Primary Forecast Concerns:

back to reality with another push of Arctic air Thursday night/ Friday. Snow potential as well as flash freeze possibilities Thursday night: The return to cold weather is forecast to arrive Thursday night...cold frontal passage will be accompanied by strong north/northwest winds and temperatures plummeting quickly through 20s and into the teens by Friday morning. This brings up a real concern for a flash freeze event with wet roads icing up as temperatures drop...and add in some windblown snow to help polish things up. Wind gusts 20-30mph inland and 30-40mph along the Lake Michigan shoreline look likely at this point. Have already dropped this mention into the Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning. Snow/snow showers continue into Friday with temperatures back in the upper teens/ 20s.

The short nature of the rainfall and the cold air "locking up" any snowmelt/runoff should preclude a sharp hydrologic response to this event. But with ice already on area river and the thaw-freeze cycle will continue to present a threat for backwater flooding where ice jams do develop.

Additional precipitation chances for the weekend: Temperatures should moderate Saturday but as usual the push of warm air will be accompanied by some precipitation (snow). Colder air likely makes a comeback on Sunday along with lake convection.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 657 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Snow flurries will persist across parts of northern Michigan this evening with low chances for patchy freezing drizzle. MVFR CIGs are expected across all TAF sites through Tuesday morning aside from APN where VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. Low to medium chances exist for IFR CIGs to work into the other TAF sites Tuesday morning -- with CIU being the most likely site to see IFR CIGs for a time. Otherwise, southwest winds will increase to 10-15 kts this morning into this afternoon with gusts to 25-35 kts through the end of the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
Gale Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ322.