Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Westfield, WI
May 3, 2024 12:17 AM CDT (05:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:41 AM Moonset 2:43 PM |
LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 1105 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest early in the morning. Patchy fog through the night. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Scattered showers early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Friday - West wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the morning, then veering north early in the afternoon veering southeast late in the afternoon. Isolated showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night - South wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest late in the evening, then becoming north after midnight becoming northeast early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday - East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then backing east late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ600
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 030215 AAA AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should move through parts of the area this evening into the overnight hours, before shifting east by early Friday morning.
- Limited rain chances late Saturday into Saturday night, followed by additional precipitation chances for the early to middle portions of next week.
UPDATE
Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Weak low pressure and an associated cold front should push east northeast across the area this evening into the overnight hours, before exiting by early Friday morning. There is enough upward vertical motion along and ahead of these features to help bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through parts of the area. Instability has weakened with the loss of daytime heating, but should still see at least a few storms move through. No severe weather is expected. This activity should move east of the area by early Friday morning. There may be some fog that develops near the lake overnight into early Friday morning, with light winds and lingering moisture.
Wood
SHORT TERM
(Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)
Tonight and Friday:
Low pressure is stationed over central Iowa north of Des Moines this afternoon with warm front into far northern Illinois.
Earlier convection that moved through late this morning through midday formed along nose of H85 moisture advection and on northern edge of weak elevated CAPE has shifted north of the area to central Lake Michigan while next round of showers moving into southwest WI is just ahead of primary lead shortwave lifting across WI into early evening. Also starting to see sfc based convection developing over far northern Illinois. Isolated severe storm has developed recently to the southwest of Chicago.
Warm front that severe cell has formed along is trying to edge into far southern Wisconsin and should gradually make it but maybe not until after 20-22z/3-5pm. Warm front very well could get hung up even longer over far SE Wisconsin closer to Lake Michigan due to cool/moist and stable SE flow off Lake Michigan. Changes to the pops/wx through this evening were not too significant. Still like idea showed by various hi-res models and continuity that showers and some thunderstorms will redevelop over far southern WI vcnty of the warm front. This convection will have slightly more instability to work on especially near the Illinois state line where if the warm front can fully arrive (sfc dewpoints to around 60) our area will be on the northern edge of MLCAPES up to 1000J/kg. Effective shear for convection to work with is more than sufficient with at least 30 kts so if convective initiation can occur, then would have potential for isolated strong to severe storm, especially with the warm front nearby.
After midnight, main cold front sweeps eastward across the area.
Continued to carry a chance for some showers and isolated thunder before precip chances end around daybreak as the cold front moves across Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings show some mid clouds and low clouds quickly evading from west to east in wake of the front leading to mostly sunny skies areawide by mid morning. Lows tonight will settle into mainly the lower 50s while highs on Friday will reach around 70. Cooler temps are likely in the afternoon near the lake due to a lake breeze off Lake Michigan.
JLA
LONG TERM
Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Friday Night through Thursday:
Precipitation...Dry weather will reside over the forecast area for Friday night, before the next chance for precip arrives on Saturday from a disjointed surface cold front and trailing upper-level trough. Models are still showing the better instability to be south of the forecast area, where the surface low center is located, but cannot rule out the low potential for some thunderstorms along the WI/IL border. This system also appears to move quickly across the area (exiting by Saturday night), so anticipate the majority of the forecast area to see QPF amounts less than a half inch.
Surface high pressure follows for Sunday, allowing plenty of sunshine over the area. Upper-level ridging will then build over the Upper Mississippi Valley for Monday, as the high pressure gradually departs and causes low-level winds to turn easterly and increase.
The next system will wrap up over the Northern Plains and allow the southwest flow ahead of it to bring southern stream energy and moisture into the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Much uncertainty remains with this system in terms of timing and placement.
Regardless of this, convective parameters at this time appear to provide enough support for thunderstorms, potentially strong or severe, to develop sometime Tuesday afternoon or evening. Given there is still time for changes to occur, will continue to monitor the potential for strong or severe storms.
Temperatures...Saturday's temperatures will be tricky to nail down given the presence of a cold front and precip. For now, have temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s for inland locations, and mid to upper 60s along the lakeshore. Similar temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday, with the high pressure overhead.
Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day through the long term forecast, as the forecast are has the potential to be in the warm sector. This would allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s.
Kruk
AVIATION
Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Weak low pressure and an associated cold front should push east northeast across the area this evening into the overnight hours, before exiting by early Friday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should move through parts of the area. This activity should move east of the area by early Friday morning.
There may be some fog with 2 to 5 mile visibility that develops near the lake overnight into early Friday morning, with light winds and lingering moisture. Fog is expected to be more concentrated over Lake Michigan during this time.
Ceilings should drop from VFR category to below 2000 feet AGL behind the front overnight into early Friday morning, before moving out by middle morning. Mostly clear skies should return for the rest of the day, with light winds. Winds should become east for lakeshore terminals with the lake breeze Friday afternoon.
Wood
MARINE
(Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)
Low pressure around 29.6 inches will move from northeast North Dakota to far southwest Ontario overnight. South to southeast winds overnight will shift west on Friday, as a cold front moves east through the region. Areas of fog will be possible overnight into Friday morning, prior to winds shifting to the west, especially over the south half of the lake. Some possibility for dense fog to occur, and will watch how trends with visibility go during this period.
Lighter winds are expected Friday afternoon and night, with high pressure around 30.0 inches moving east through the region. A cold front will move across Lake Michigan on Saturday afternoon and evening, before high pressure around 30.1 inches moves into the region for Sunday. Winds are expected to be light to modest through the upcoming weekend.
Wood
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should move through parts of the area this evening into the overnight hours, before shifting east by early Friday morning.
- Limited rain chances late Saturday into Saturday night, followed by additional precipitation chances for the early to middle portions of next week.
UPDATE
Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Weak low pressure and an associated cold front should push east northeast across the area this evening into the overnight hours, before exiting by early Friday morning. There is enough upward vertical motion along and ahead of these features to help bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through parts of the area. Instability has weakened with the loss of daytime heating, but should still see at least a few storms move through. No severe weather is expected. This activity should move east of the area by early Friday morning. There may be some fog that develops near the lake overnight into early Friday morning, with light winds and lingering moisture.
Wood
SHORT TERM
(Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)
Tonight and Friday:
Low pressure is stationed over central Iowa north of Des Moines this afternoon with warm front into far northern Illinois.
Earlier convection that moved through late this morning through midday formed along nose of H85 moisture advection and on northern edge of weak elevated CAPE has shifted north of the area to central Lake Michigan while next round of showers moving into southwest WI is just ahead of primary lead shortwave lifting across WI into early evening. Also starting to see sfc based convection developing over far northern Illinois. Isolated severe storm has developed recently to the southwest of Chicago.
Warm front that severe cell has formed along is trying to edge into far southern Wisconsin and should gradually make it but maybe not until after 20-22z/3-5pm. Warm front very well could get hung up even longer over far SE Wisconsin closer to Lake Michigan due to cool/moist and stable SE flow off Lake Michigan. Changes to the pops/wx through this evening were not too significant. Still like idea showed by various hi-res models and continuity that showers and some thunderstorms will redevelop over far southern WI vcnty of the warm front. This convection will have slightly more instability to work on especially near the Illinois state line where if the warm front can fully arrive (sfc dewpoints to around 60) our area will be on the northern edge of MLCAPES up to 1000J/kg. Effective shear for convection to work with is more than sufficient with at least 30 kts so if convective initiation can occur, then would have potential for isolated strong to severe storm, especially with the warm front nearby.
After midnight, main cold front sweeps eastward across the area.
Continued to carry a chance for some showers and isolated thunder before precip chances end around daybreak as the cold front moves across Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings show some mid clouds and low clouds quickly evading from west to east in wake of the front leading to mostly sunny skies areawide by mid morning. Lows tonight will settle into mainly the lower 50s while highs on Friday will reach around 70. Cooler temps are likely in the afternoon near the lake due to a lake breeze off Lake Michigan.
JLA
LONG TERM
Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Friday Night through Thursday:
Precipitation...Dry weather will reside over the forecast area for Friday night, before the next chance for precip arrives on Saturday from a disjointed surface cold front and trailing upper-level trough. Models are still showing the better instability to be south of the forecast area, where the surface low center is located, but cannot rule out the low potential for some thunderstorms along the WI/IL border. This system also appears to move quickly across the area (exiting by Saturday night), so anticipate the majority of the forecast area to see QPF amounts less than a half inch.
Surface high pressure follows for Sunday, allowing plenty of sunshine over the area. Upper-level ridging will then build over the Upper Mississippi Valley for Monday, as the high pressure gradually departs and causes low-level winds to turn easterly and increase.
The next system will wrap up over the Northern Plains and allow the southwest flow ahead of it to bring southern stream energy and moisture into the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Much uncertainty remains with this system in terms of timing and placement.
Regardless of this, convective parameters at this time appear to provide enough support for thunderstorms, potentially strong or severe, to develop sometime Tuesday afternoon or evening. Given there is still time for changes to occur, will continue to monitor the potential for strong or severe storms.
Temperatures...Saturday's temperatures will be tricky to nail down given the presence of a cold front and precip. For now, have temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s for inland locations, and mid to upper 60s along the lakeshore. Similar temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday, with the high pressure overhead.
Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day through the long term forecast, as the forecast are has the potential to be in the warm sector. This would allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s.
Kruk
AVIATION
Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Weak low pressure and an associated cold front should push east northeast across the area this evening into the overnight hours, before exiting by early Friday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should move through parts of the area. This activity should move east of the area by early Friday morning.
There may be some fog with 2 to 5 mile visibility that develops near the lake overnight into early Friday morning, with light winds and lingering moisture. Fog is expected to be more concentrated over Lake Michigan during this time.
Ceilings should drop from VFR category to below 2000 feet AGL behind the front overnight into early Friday morning, before moving out by middle morning. Mostly clear skies should return for the rest of the day, with light winds. Winds should become east for lakeshore terminals with the lake breeze Friday afternoon.
Wood
MARINE
(Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)
Low pressure around 29.6 inches will move from northeast North Dakota to far southwest Ontario overnight. South to southeast winds overnight will shift west on Friday, as a cold front moves east through the region. Areas of fog will be possible overnight into Friday morning, prior to winds shifting to the west, especially over the south half of the lake. Some possibility for dense fog to occur, and will watch how trends with visibility go during this period.
Lighter winds are expected Friday afternoon and night, with high pressure around 30.0 inches moving east through the region. A cold front will move across Lake Michigan on Saturday afternoon and evening, before high pressure around 30.1 inches moves into the region for Sunday. Winds are expected to be light to modest through the upcoming weekend.
Wood
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Airport Reports
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Green Bay, WI,
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