Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pentwater, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Dry and warmer through Wednesday

Radar shows a few lingering snow showers over the northern half of the cwa, the result of a weak short wave moving over Lower MI along with some lake enhancement. H8 temperatures will continue to warm through the rest of the day which will end the lake contribution.

Strong southwest flow aloft will result in H8 temps warming to +8c by Tuesday evening; we'll see highs Tuesday and Wednesday climb into the mid 30s.

- Warmer and rainy Thursday, roadway ponding possible

Strong low pressure moving east along the US-Canada border will create a strong 65kt llj which will advect moisture and warmth into the cwa Thursday ahead of the trailing cold front. Strong isentropic lift on the 290k sfc will saturate the lower atmosphere early Thursday and rain will develop shortly prior to sunrise.
QPF has seen good model-to-model consistency as of late and 0.3-0.4 inches of rain seems plausible. The roughly half foot of snow on the ground should be able to absorb that without too much problem. A bigger issue may be what happens on the roads, especially secondary roads. We are in the middle of snow-clogged storm drain season and the expected rainfall may have difficulty finding a storm drain that's clogged by plowed snow, resulting in ponding.

Hydrologic ensemble forecast system shows that rivers will rise with the expected rainfall and a few may reach action stage.
However, flooding is not expected.

- Colder with snow possible Thursday night through Saturday

Another surge of cold air will quickly follow fropa Thursday night. Any lingering precipitation will change over to both synoptic light snow and lake effect as h8 temps quickly fall to -17c. But, that won't last long either as boundary layer winds quickly become southwesterly and h8 temperatures warm to -9c by late Friday. A quick succession of lows/cold fronts will result in short periods of light show...none of which looks particularly heavy.



AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1234 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Blowing snow is limiting vsbys and cigs at MKG, but all other sites are VFR. Wind will diminish toward sunset putting an end of the blowing snow at MKG.

MVFR cigs are expected to develop tonight from north to south as another weak short wave moves overhead. Expect cigs around 1500 ft.

MARINE
Issued at 250 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Wind will diminish to sub gale force mid afternoon today, but waves will remain high; we issued a small craft advisory until 1 AM tonight earlier this morning to account for the waves.

Another small craft advisory may be needed mid morning Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next cold front and gales may follow Wednesday and Thursday.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>849.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.