Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Creek, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Hydrological concerns continue for minor river flooding through this afternoon due to recent heavy rainfall in Herkimer and Hamilton counties.

2) Another weather system is expected to bring medium to high chances of precipitation to eastern New York and western New England Thursday. Potential flooding impacts look to be low at this forecast period.

3) Unsettled weather conditions continue through this weekend, with the overall flood threat at this time being low.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Flood Watches continue for Herkimer and Hamilton counties through 8 PM tonight due to recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt impacting local rivers and streams. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall have fallen across these counties. Minor to moderate flood stages on local rivers and streams such as the West Canada Creek at Hinckley and Sacandaga River at Hope continue to be forecasted today by the northeast river forecast center. With only additional light precipitation today between 0.25 and 0.5 inches in the next 24 hours, flooding concerns decrease tonight for these locations. However, ponding of water on roadways and high river flows could continue into the overnight hours tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Thursday is looking to be a dreary day in store with overcast skies and medium to high (60-80%) chances for precipitation as our next weather system moves through eastern New York and western New England. The current forecast supports the precipitation type to be rain for most of eastern New York and western New England as temperatures stay above freezing.
Locations for this exception are across the southern Adirondacks and high terrain of the southern Greens, where light freezing rain, then a light mix of rain and snow can occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Ice accumulations with this morning forecast has increased to range between 0.1 inches and 0.25 inches across the highest terrain locations in southern Vermont. For the southern Adirondacks, ice accumulations continue to range between 0.01 inches and 0.1 inches. This could lead to a few slick spots on non-pavement surfaces in the southwestern Adirondacks and highest terrain locations of the southern Greens Thursday morning.Temperatures gradually rise late Thursday morning to above freezing for precipitation to change over to plain rain. Precipitation chances decrease Thursday night to less than 60%. With the latest forecast supporting light precipitation amounts less a quarter inch, confidence continues to increase for no significant flooding impacts to occur for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
For this weekend, medium to high chances for precipitation return after a brief break on Friday. Flooding concerns at this forecast time are low as precipitation is looking to be light Saturday into Sunday. With low temperatures above freezing and high temperatures in the 50s and 70s, precipitation type will be rain this weekend. Latest ensemble forecast model guidances are supporting for Saturday to be isolated to scattered rain showers with breaks of sunshine during the afternoon hours.
Sunday afternoon is shaping up to be widespread rain showers, but confidence is low if breaks in the precipitation occurs.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12z Thursday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 6:40 AM EDT. However, cigs drop to MVFR behind a cold frontal passage this morning at all terminals. Still low confidence whether or not any IFR will occur at GFL, so will mention the possibility here.
Timing would be mainly through mid-morning. Cigs trend back up to low-end VFR by this afternoon. VFR conditions continue at GFL well into tonight, but for POU and then ALB/PSF an area of showers will be moving northwards late this afternoon and evening. At these terminals, MVFR vsbys and eventually cigs within the showers expected, trending to low-end MVFR/IFR late tonight. At GFL, will mention chance for showers and MVFR cigs/vsbys late tonight.

Winds will be from the W/SW ahead of the cold front early this morning, then will veer to the N/NW and eventually N/NE behind the cold front by this afternoon and evening at around 10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt. Gusts diminish at ALB/POU/GFL tonight, but continue to veer to the east at PSF with gusts of around 20 kt through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ032-033-038.
MA...None.
VT...None.