Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Auburn, MI

AVIATION

Low clouds are spilling southward this evening with mbS, and soon to be FNT, seeing MVFR ceilings at the start of this TAF period. These MVFR ceilings should reach the southern metro terminals by around 03Z this evening and are expected to hold across the area through the overnight. Potential remains to see isolated flurry activity, but timing will be brief and coverage should be too sparse to add mention at this time. Increasing southwest wind will then scatter out this deck from south to north starting mid morning tomorrow. Wind gust potential reaches about 20 knots during the afternoon hours with some lingering high clouds.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs aob 5000 feet early this evening, high by around 03Z and through the overnight period.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 349 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

DISCUSSION...

Height rises commencing this evening mark the departure of upper troughing and a pivot to a zonal flow pattern through mid-week. At the surface, high pressure will remain relatively steady across the SE CONUS with southwest return flow targeting the Great Lakes. This allows for the pervasive arctic air mass to dislodge from the region and allow for a warming trend through Thursday. Gusty wind this afternoon will subside heading into tonight while 925-850mb flow veers to westerly and advects Lake Michigan cloud across the area.
If enough supersaturation is maintained across the state, some flurries will be possible given the DGZ placement in the boundary layer. Most guidance is lean with the moisture suggesting mainly just broken cloud cover. The cloud will dampen the diurnal temperature response, but resident arctic air still allows for lows in the lower teens overnight.

Strong warm advection ensues overnight into Tuesday with observed 850mb temperature of -11C this morning trending up to +6 to 7C by tomorrow evening. This induces a strong stable layer and the warmth will not be fully realized at the surface, but temps should climb to around the freezing mark for the first time since last Wednesday.
There is a pool of low-level moisture progged to arrive from the Mid- Mississippi Valley Tuesday night which may bring some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle but chances for this remain below 10% in probabilistic data. Gusty southwest winds will accompany a tightening pressure gradient during this period, producing a non- diurnal temperature response with temps slowly climbing overnight into the mid 30s by Wednesday morning.

A cold front passes across the area on Wednesday in response to a low amplitude upper wave arriving from the Midwest. Moisture with the front will be shallow and the overwhelming model signal is for a dry fropa. This will send temps back into the 20s Wednesday evening.
Strong elevated warm advection follows from Wednesday night into Thursday as a deep low emerges over the northern Rockies and tracks into the Upper Midwest. The mature low will pass across the northern Great Lakes daytime Thursday placing SE MI well within the warm conveyor and favoring highs in the mid 40s. A corridor of deep moisture transport will arrive during the mid to late morning, favoring widespread rainfall during the day as temps in the lowest 6 kft sit comfortably above freezing. QPF is advertised on the order of 0.25 to 0.50", which combined with snow melt may bring some ponding on roads.

Ensemble guidance has come into more agreement for a 50 to 60 kt LLJ overhead on Thursday which is at the 99th climatological percentile.
Much of this momentum will be locked above a strong inversion resulting from the warm advection aloft, but still looking at a period of gusty south winds to around 30 mph during the day. A stronger pop of wind is possible during the evening as the initial cold front/dry slot arrives, but by that point much of the momentum aloft will be directed over the eastern Great Lakes.

The strong westerly flow and cold advection that follow frontal passage suggest a rapid temperature drop which may result in a flash freeze scenario with any residual moisture on roadways Thursday evening. Will need to monitor this potential with regards to the evening rush hour. As moisture wraps around the system with some added contribution from Lake Michigan, some light snow showers will be possible - mainly through early Friday morning but with potential for additional streamers to arrive daytime Friday. The active pattern sees another bout of southwesterly warm advection on Saturday followed by another cold front Sunday tied to a weaker low north of the Great Lakes.

MARINE...

Several rounds of strong winds will impact the central Great Lakes through the course of the week. The current small craft conditions will fade into this evening as a weak surface ridge sweeps by. The next low pressure system will traverse Ontario, much like the current one. The surface pressure gradient will be a little tighter, supporting a stronger southwest flow wind response late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night - especially across Saginaw Bay and central portions of Lake Huron. Guidance is supporting sustained winds approaching 30-kts with persistent gales gusts. Once the cold front moves through early Wednesday, the focus for stronger westerly winds will be across north-central Lake Huron. However, the confidence in a meaningful window of gale gusts is not quite as high Wednesday morning - therefore, will continue the current Gale Watch.
Only a brief respite before an even stronger system moves through the region Thursday and Friday - with a better shot at gales.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for LHZ362.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ363-421- 422-441-462.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.