Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Era, MI
May 3, 2024 9:25 AM EDT (13:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:32 AM Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM Moonset 2:32 PM |
LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 805 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering north late in the day. Patchy fog until midday. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms until midday, then Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering east after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest, then veering west late in the day. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday - East winds around 15 knots veering southeast, then backing northeast late in the day. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday - Southeast winds around 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 031151 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 751 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms taper off today
- Next Chance Showers Saturday Night; Dry Sunday into Monday
- Continued Mild Next Week with Occasional Showers and Storms
DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
- Showers and thunderstorms taper off today
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms cover the area first thing this morning. These storms have been just some good old fashioned garden variety storms with some isolated small hail and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph winds. We will see more of the same over the next few hours, with the thunder threat diminishing a bit as the better instability shifts east.
The area is under a nice moist axis, out ahead of a front that is over Eastern Wisconsin as of 07z. Instability is weak with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and slightly negative LI's. These parameters are just enough to produce some lightning and thunder.
It looks like we should see the front gradually start clearing the area from West to East after 13-14z. With the front clearing the area, the showers and storms will be coming to and end also. We should see some sunshine break out this afternoon in the wake of the front, bring a nice half day to the area.
The only thing of note tonight is the potential of low stratus advecting over the southern half of the area from the SE overnight.
All of the low clouds/moisture getting swept out with the front will make a partial return overnight. The low level flow becomes from the SE, and taps the low level moisture with the front. Tough to say how far it will make it. The far SE portion of the area toward Jackson has the best chance, while the Muskegon area and areas north will see the lowest chance being further removed from the moisture source.
Most of the day on Saturday will remain dry and warm. There are a couple of small chances for a little bit of spotty rain. The first is over the SE portion of the area during the afternoon. The lingering low level moisture, combined with a weakening front moving over the area may touch off a few showers/weak storms.
The second area that may see a few showers late in the afternoon will be the lakeshore, with northern areas seeing the best chance.
The front that meanders over the area on Saturday will be mainly dry.
We do see some almost pure convergence develop along/behind the front, and a weakening short wave aloft. These factors will combine to produce a line of showers and isolated storms, possibly as early as late Saturday afternoon at the lakeshore.
- Next Chance Showers Saturday Night; Dry Sunday into Monday
A weak cold front will cross the state on Saturday night into early Sunday with a few showers and storms along it. High pressure builds in behind the front providing a period of dry weather Sunday into Monday before a warm front returns north on Monday night and Tuesday.
- Continued Mild Next Week with Occasional Showers and Storms
Guidance pops still 70-80 percent Tuesday/Tuesday evening as Plains trough sends out a shortwave in our direction, although some timing differences on this feature are still present.
The middle to late part of next week appears to remain rather active as broad/positively tilted longwave trough edges slowly in our direction. Series of fronts/troughs pivoting around a slowly approaching upper level low along with lingering warmth/instability will maintain a daily convective threat.
Temperatures remaining above normal most of next week before cooling off next weekend with the eventual arrival of the upper low/trough.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 751 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Areas of IFR will be present this morning as showers continue to pull through, but the threat of thunder appears to be over now.
Improving conditions expected this afternoon as showers end from west to east, with VFR following. However stratus makes a reappearance late tonight, starting first at JXN around 06Z or so, then spreading westward from there through 12Z Sat.
MARINE
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
It appears that we should not need any marine headlines through at least Saturday. We could be looking at a possible Small Craft Advisory event for Saturday night and Sunday.
Even with the system overhead this morning, there is not much of a pressure gradient on either side of it, so no big wind events for the time being. We do see a weak front slide over the area on Saturday, and then move out by Sunday. The way the systems come together, there ends up being a decent gradient on the back side of the system that could push winds up above thresholds Saturday night into Sunday.
The next potential headline event after Saturday Night/Sunday will be Monday night into Tuesday with the next system.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 751 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms taper off today
- Next Chance Showers Saturday Night; Dry Sunday into Monday
- Continued Mild Next Week with Occasional Showers and Storms
DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
- Showers and thunderstorms taper off today
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms cover the area first thing this morning. These storms have been just some good old fashioned garden variety storms with some isolated small hail and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph winds. We will see more of the same over the next few hours, with the thunder threat diminishing a bit as the better instability shifts east.
The area is under a nice moist axis, out ahead of a front that is over Eastern Wisconsin as of 07z. Instability is weak with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and slightly negative LI's. These parameters are just enough to produce some lightning and thunder.
It looks like we should see the front gradually start clearing the area from West to East after 13-14z. With the front clearing the area, the showers and storms will be coming to and end also. We should see some sunshine break out this afternoon in the wake of the front, bring a nice half day to the area.
The only thing of note tonight is the potential of low stratus advecting over the southern half of the area from the SE overnight.
All of the low clouds/moisture getting swept out with the front will make a partial return overnight. The low level flow becomes from the SE, and taps the low level moisture with the front. Tough to say how far it will make it. The far SE portion of the area toward Jackson has the best chance, while the Muskegon area and areas north will see the lowest chance being further removed from the moisture source.
Most of the day on Saturday will remain dry and warm. There are a couple of small chances for a little bit of spotty rain. The first is over the SE portion of the area during the afternoon. The lingering low level moisture, combined with a weakening front moving over the area may touch off a few showers/weak storms.
The second area that may see a few showers late in the afternoon will be the lakeshore, with northern areas seeing the best chance.
The front that meanders over the area on Saturday will be mainly dry.
We do see some almost pure convergence develop along/behind the front, and a weakening short wave aloft. These factors will combine to produce a line of showers and isolated storms, possibly as early as late Saturday afternoon at the lakeshore.
- Next Chance Showers Saturday Night; Dry Sunday into Monday
A weak cold front will cross the state on Saturday night into early Sunday with a few showers and storms along it. High pressure builds in behind the front providing a period of dry weather Sunday into Monday before a warm front returns north on Monday night and Tuesday.
- Continued Mild Next Week with Occasional Showers and Storms
Guidance pops still 70-80 percent Tuesday/Tuesday evening as Plains trough sends out a shortwave in our direction, although some timing differences on this feature are still present.
The middle to late part of next week appears to remain rather active as broad/positively tilted longwave trough edges slowly in our direction. Series of fronts/troughs pivoting around a slowly approaching upper level low along with lingering warmth/instability will maintain a daily convective threat.
Temperatures remaining above normal most of next week before cooling off next weekend with the eventual arrival of the upper low/trough.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 751 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Areas of IFR will be present this morning as showers continue to pull through, but the threat of thunder appears to be over now.
Improving conditions expected this afternoon as showers end from west to east, with VFR following. However stratus makes a reappearance late tonight, starting first at JXN around 06Z or so, then spreading westward from there through 12Z Sat.
MARINE
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
It appears that we should not need any marine headlines through at least Saturday. We could be looking at a possible Small Craft Advisory event for Saturday night and Sunday.
Even with the system overhead this morning, there is not much of a pressure gradient on either side of it, so no big wind events for the time being. We do see a weak front slide over the area on Saturday, and then move out by Sunday. The way the systems come together, there ends up being a decent gradient on the back side of the system that could push winds up above thresholds Saturday night into Sunday.
The next potential headline event after Saturday Night/Sunday will be Monday night into Tuesday with the next system.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 25 mi | 45 min | WNW 13G | 52°F | 29.96 | 52°F | ||
| 45161 | 27 mi | 45 min | 1 ft | |||||
| LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI | 29 mi | 55 min | W 4.1G | 50°F | 48°F | |||
| BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 36 mi | 45 min | WSW 5.1G | 48°F | 30.01 | |||
| 45029 | 47 mi | 55 min | NNW 5.8G | 51°F | 49°F | 1 ft | 51°F |
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Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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