Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM   Moonset 1:50 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405030330;;509715 Fzus51 Kbuf 022101 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 501 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-030330- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 501 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 030858 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 458 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to slide east into New England today supporting mainly dry weather for most of the day. A warm front to the west of the area will move across the region today, supporting a surge in warm air, allowing temperatures to topple out well above average today. A pair of slow moving cold fronts will then pass across the area tonight through Sunday supporting a couple of rounds of showers and possible a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure will slide east toward the New England coast today, all the while the upper level ridge axis passes across the area. Additionally, a warm front will push northeastward this morning due to some freshening southerly low level flow. Overall this will support warm air advection today, causing temperatures to warm up into the mid to upper 70s across the vast majority of the region with a few low to mid 80s possible across far WNY and the traditional warmer spots of the Genesee Valley. Areas along the lake shore will be cooler.

With the high exiting the region through much of today, expect the vast majority of the day to be on the dry side. However, as the aforementioned upper level ridge axis drifts east across the eastern half of the state, southwesterly flow will advect in deeper moisture this afternoon through evening. Eventually by late Friday a cold front will interact with the increasing moisture, and in combination of diurnal heating a few scattered showers and thunderstorms may result. The best focus will lie along the lake breeze boundary inland from Lake Erie.

The cold front will then gradually pass across Lake Erie tonight before stalling across Western New York by Saturday morning. This will support showers and thunderstorms to continue to spread across WNY throughout the night. Expect a mild night Friday with lows ranging in the 50s, with the warmer readings occuring along the Lake Erie shoreline.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A mid level ridge axis will move from NY/PA Saturday morning to off the east coast by Sunday afternoon. A few weak mid level shortwaves will move east into the ridge position and weaken with time. Despite the presence of a ridge aloft, the weekend will be unsettled as a slow moving low level trough and associated plume of deep moisture drifts across the eastern US beneath the mid level ridge. Model guidance has shown some run to run variability with respect to timing of the most organized rain. The general trend since yesterday has been to decrease rain potential on Saturday (especially in the afternoon) while increasing rain chances Sunday.

Saturday, a mid level shortwave will move across the eastern Great Lakes and weaken as it encounters the persistent ridge over NY/PA. A weak surface trough and associated area of low level moisture convergence will move across the area in the morning and provide some focus for a few areas of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two, with the best coverage likely found across Western NY. This trough largely washes out by the afternoon, and ascent and moisture temporarily fade across the eastern Great Lakes.
While there may still be a few spotty showers, Saturday afternoon and evening should feature plenty of rain free time.

Saturday night will start with only spotty coverage of showers and plenty of rain free areas during the evening. Another mid level shortwave will then move from the Ohio Valley into NY/PA later Saturday night through Sunday, bringing renewed ascent. A plume of deeper moisture will be advected northward into the area as low/mid level SSW flow increases in response to a digging trough over the upper Great Lakes. The increase in forcing and moisture will allow for a commensurate increase in rain coverage from southwest to northeast late Saturday night through Sunday across the region.
There may be just enough instability to support some isolated weak thunder.

The mid and low level trough axis will gradually move east into New England later Sunday and Sunday night, with rain tapering off from west to east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Surface high pressure over northwest Ontario will ridge southeastward into the Great Lakes Monday, with an associated bubble of dry air bringing a return to dry weather. The dry weather will last into at least Tuesday morning. Model guidance begins to show some spread by Tuesday afternoon with the arrival of the next system. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean continues to be on the fast side of the guidance envelope, while the ECMWF and GEM are slower.
For now kept some chance POPS for Tuesday afternoon, but if the slower guidance verifies Tuesday will end up being dry.

Wednesday through Thursday an expansive mid level low will gradually move east across the north central US. A series of mid level shortwaves will eject out of this system and move east across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes, with each feature bringing ascent and deeper moisture to the region. This will produce occasional rounds of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms for mid to late week next week.

Temperatures will continue to run above average through all of next week.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A combination of exiting high pressure to the east into New England this morning and the entering warm front pushing across WNY this morning is supporting VFR flight conditions. Some thickening mid to upper level cloud decks this morning as the warm front approaches the region. Despite the increasing cloud cover, VFR conditions will persist.

As the next cold front approaches the warm front today, a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible after 18Z.

Friday afternoon through night, a chance of showers and a low risk of a thunderstorm across western NY after 18z. As such the MVFR cigs should not arrive until late tonight mainly across the western Southern Tier.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.

Sunday...Morning showers, then a chance of afternoon showers, otherwise mainly VFR.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected through the end of the work week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight through Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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