Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayfield, NY

KEY MESSAGES
- Light lake effect snow showers across the southwestern Adirondacks through tonight.

- A storm system brings mild temperatures and rainfall to eastern New York and western New England Thursday evening into Friday morning before bitter cold temperatures return Friday night.

- Probabilities for wind gusts greater than 40 mph for Friday continue to be greater than 60% across the Berkshires, northern Taconics, Capital District region, and portions of the eastern Catskills.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Latest high resolution forecast model guidance and recent surface observation trends continue to support for a band of lake effect snow to develop off of Lake Ontario this evening into tonight. This band of snow has high chances of bringing light snowfall amounts for northern Herkimer county, particularly north of route 28, with snow amounts between 1 to 4 inches through tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A low pressure system from the Great Lakes region heads eastward across eastern New York and western New England Thursday night into Friday morning. First, a warm front moves through bringing mild temperatures for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening with temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. As the warm front moves through, precipitation begins Thursday evening as all rain.
Latest National Blend of Models data supports probabilities between 70-75% for precipitation amounts greater than 0.5 inches in 24 hours (7 PM Thursday through 7 PM Friday) across all of eastern New York and western New England. Latest ensemble forecast model guidances continue to support this low pressure system to quickly move through the overnight hours Thursday and early morning hours Friday. By Friday afternoon, conditions become drier and low chances for light snow returns. Bitter cold temperatures return Friday night with lows in the single digits and low teens.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Behind a strong cold front Friday afternoon, winds are forecasted to increase as a low pressure system heads north and east from the Northeast. Forecast confidence continues to increase for a breezy to gusty afternoon and early evening.
Latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.3 data continues to support 60-80% probabilities for wind gusts greater than 40 mph across the Berkshires, northern Taconics, Capital District region, and portions of the eastern Catskills. With this information, forecast confidence continues to increase for these locations to see the greatest wind impacts Friday afternoon such as unsecured outdoor items being blown away and small tree limbs could break.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18 UTC/Tuesday...A mid-level disturbance will overspread increased mid-level moisture late this afternoon into tonight resulting in lowering ceilings to 4 - 8kft at all terminals mainly from 21 - 07 UTC. Additional upsloping at PSF looks to result in MVFR cigs during this window. Otherwise, POU, ALB and GFL remains VFR. Not enough low-level moisture to warrant any snow shower mention in the TAFs at this time. By 09-11 UTC, the disturbance exits to our east with drying ensuing that will allow skies to clear at all sites. Winds varying between southeasterly and westerly with sustained winds 5-10kts and occasional gusts to 15-20kts through 21- 22 UTC today. Then, winds turn light and variable overnight into early tomorrow morning before becoming southerly by midday and sustained around 5-7kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts
Likely RA
SN.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.