Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Friday night - North winds around 10 knots veering east after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots veering south, then veering west late in the day. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot. Saturday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Sunday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Monday - East winds around 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds around 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 030252 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1052 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms into Friday

- Mild with several chances for showers/storms

UPDATE
Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Core of the instability has remained south of the forecast area this evening. With the loss of daytime heating, the instability has weakened and we do not expect a resurgence into the area tonight. The RAP model only shows 100-400 j/kg of MUCAPE overnight. So, we expect rain showers tonight with the potential of isolated thunderstorms. The HRRR continues to show pockets of heavier rain developing ahead of the cold front that will move in late from Wisconsin. Given the HRRR has been consistent in showing some half inch to one inch amounts there is a fairly high confidence in this occurring from MKG northeast through RQB and CAD especially. It will take much of the day on Friday for the front to clear southeast portions of the forecast area near JXN.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

- Showers and thunderstorms into Friday

An upper level wave in the Upper Plains will track into the Western Great Lakes tonight. It takes on a negative tilt as it does. At the same time a low level jet will be tracking northeastward through Western Lower MI, generating lower level lift. Elevated instability will be present and PWAT values climb to well above normal levels at around 1.5 inches. Given the moisture, deep lift and presence of instability, showers and thunderstorms will become numerous tonight. High res models suggest several pockets of higher wind gusts could evolve overnight, but most indications are that they may struggle to reach severe criteria. The latest HRRR indicates the storms developing around Chicago will build northeast and into our CWA later this afternoon and into the evening. We did increase POPs accordingly.

On Friday the front will be pushing eastward through the CWA by mid afternoon. Thus any shower/storm activity will decrease from west to east through the early to mid afternoon hours. At this time the instability is progged to be limited so severe weather is not anticipated.

- Mild with several chances for showers/storms

A persistent long wave trough over the Rockies will send a steady stream of short waves toward the Great Lakes through the period.
Southwest winds aloft will also ensure that warm air flows across the cwa. Highs will be in the 70s throughout the period and nudge up to the 80 degree mark over the southwestern cwa Tuesday and Wednesday.

Saturday will probably be dry. However, a short wave moving across the region may give us some showers and perhaps a storm Saturday night.

Sunday looks dry, then another stronger wave arrives Monday night.
Strong low pressure over the northern plains is progd to push a warm front north into the cwa late Monday night. We'll likely see showers and storms develop along/ahead of the warm front with more development ahead of the trailing occluded front Tuesday.

Showers are possible again Thursday as the Plains low finally moves over the state.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 754 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

A stationary boundary is located off to the south of the TAF sites this evening situated along the MI/IN line. Showers and a few thunderstorms have been drifting to the north, over Lower Michigan with a few embedded thunderstorms. At this point we feel thunderstorm coverage will be on the low side as instability is forecast to remain fairly low. The stationary boundary will lift north tonight though and continue to produce rain showers. A cold front approaches from the west late tonight and will bring in lower ceilings. MVFR and IFR ceilings will spread into all of the TAF sites from west to east from 07z to 14z. It will take a good portion of Friday to clear these lower clouds out. By 21z on Friday ceilings should have returned to VFR at the last place to lift which will be JXN. South winds tonight will shift to the west and northwest on Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

With a low level jet track through the zones tonight the winds will be on the increase. They are currently progged to remain below criteria for small craft advisory so no headlines will be issued at this time. Outside of the winds increasing over the lake, gusty winds will accompany the showers and thunderstorms that track through Lower MI tonight.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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