Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for University at Buffalo, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A clipper system is bearing down upon WNY this afternoon, and while it will not produce much widespread snow, it will enhance bands of lake effect snow.

Snow off Lake Erie has neared the Buffalo metro area, and a moderate to heavy band of snow will continue through the afternoon hours, with potentially one inch per hour snow rates within the core of the band.

Snow off Lake Ontario has lifted into Oswego County, and like Erie, will be locally moderate to heavy as it continues to lift northward towards the Tug Hill, ahead of the shortwave trough/Clipper this afternoon and early evening. With the Lake Erie band feeding into this snowband, snowfall rates will likely approach 2-3"/hr for several hours.

Behind the shortwave, a period of drier air layered between 4-8K feet will filtrate into the Lake Erie snowband this early evening, that along with slight increase in wind shear will weaken the snowband down to light snow showers northeast of the Lake before low level moisture returns later in the evening to flare the snowband up one more time as it slowly settles southward towards the Buffalo southtowns behind the shortwave trough.

Not as much drier air is expected for the Lake Ontario band, with the upstream connection, and a heavy band of snow through the night will remain near the Tug Hill region.

Surface ridging will pass over our region tomorrow morning, ending lake snows as winds back, lifting the weakening bands towards Canada.

Quiet weather is then expected later Tuesday and through Tuesday night with the surface ridge nearby. Not as cold behind the surface ridge for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Heading into Wednesday, the next weak trough will slide east across the eastern Great Lakes supporting a weak cold front to pass across western and north central New York. Ahead of the frontal passage, warm air advection will support temperatures to rise above normal.
Additionally associated with the frontal passage, chances for a few rain showers and higher elevation snow showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario.

A transient ridge will pass across the region Wednesday night, supporting another brief period of dry weather. As this ridge rapidly exits east into the Atlantic, a sharp and progressive mid/upper level trough will deepen across the middle to upper Mississippi Valley. As a result a strong (985-990mb) surface low will set up across Sault Sainte Marie. Ahead of this system, a strong warm air advection regime will support temperatures to rise up into the upper 40s to near 50. While model guidance continues to have its differences with the low's exact track, overall consensus is for the track east- northeast across southern Ontario and into southern Quebec by Friday. This being said, conditions will be windy Wednesday night through Friday, with the best timing and location for the strongest winds correlating to the position and how the much the low is deepening in relation to western and north central New York. This being said, a 70kt low level jet will slide overhead Thursday night ahead of the main cold front. While this jet will pass across the region during the warm sector of the low which will limit the amount of mixing of higher winds to the surface, the overall set up will favor downsloping on the north/northwest slopes of the higher terrain. Outside of the wind potential, chances for rain showers will arrive Thursday and remain through Thursday night with the passages of the associated warm and incoming cold front.

Rain will quickly transition back to snow Friday, with the passage of a secondary cold front pushing south across the region causing temperatures to tumble back into the 20s. Additionally, gusty winds will continue to be a factor Friday, with a low level jet of 40-50kt remaining overhead in the cold air advection regime. This all being said, the cold air will support a quick hitting, and possibly impactful lake enhanced/upslope snow event for the end of the week, especially for east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A transient ridge and associated warmer air will rapidly shut down lake enhanced/upslope snows late Friday night into Saturday morning.
The period of quiet weather will be brief, as yet another cold front will pass across the region Saturday night, supporting a range of 30 degree temperatures to close out the weekend and the start of the next work week. Confidence on exact track, timing, and strength of these features over the weekend is low to moderate at this distance in time, but overall expect some unsettled weather (rain/snow?) with some dry time built in, along with breezy conditions and temperatures near to a bit above average. Cool northwest lingering on the eastern side of a surface high building east will support the potential for some lake effect/upslope snow showers south of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A clipper system is passing across the region the first 6 hours of this TAF cycle, yielding widespread light snow, but more importantly enhancing bands of Lake Effect Snow east and northeast of both eastern Great Lakes. Expect a period of IFR/LIFR or lower visibilities for KBUF, and at times KIAG/KROC before the snowband drops southward through the overnight hours.

While the snowband off Lake Ontario will remain just south of KART through the evening, subtle oscillations may bring the snowband across the airfield later tonight, and with a backing of the wind Tuesday morning higher confidence for IFR and lower flight conditions the final 6 hours of the TAF cycle.

Light snow from the clipper/upslope snow will linger IFR in snow for the Southern Tier (KJHW) through the first 6 hours of the TAF cycle.

Moderate wind gusts into the 20 knot range on the periphery of the lake effect snowbands through the evening hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Improving to VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance for a few rain/snow showers and MVFR east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing along with strong southerly winds. Rain changes to snow late Thursday night along a cold front passage. Strong winds veer from southerly to westerly.

Friday...Becoming all snow with localized IFR in lake effect snow east/southeast of the lakes. Otherwise MVFR/VFR with scattered light snow showers. Gust westerly to northwesterly winds.

Saturday.. MVFR/VFR in scattered snow showers.

MARINE
A moderate wind flow within small craft advisory range will continue on the Lower Great Lakes this afternoon, and tonight as a clipper low moves through. Winds will gradually diminish late tonight through Tuesday, but still remain at or near Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Another cold front passes the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds increasing to 30 knots on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a small chance of a brief period of gales.

Strong low pressure will move across Ontario and Quebec Thursday through Friday, with a trailing powerful cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes late Thursday night. Southerly winds will increase to likely gale force Thursday ahead of the cold front, then swing around to westerly Friday behind the front with gales likely continuing on both lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ001-002- 010>012-085.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045.