Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenmore, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of this writing...the expected influx of drier air aloft behind today's shortwave has weakened the Lake Erie lake snows even more than previously anticipated...with just some leftover flurries found across Niagara/northern Erie counties. Meanwhile the Lake Ontario lake snows have completed their realignment into a single band aligned parallel to the long axis of that lake...and continue to slowly push north toward Watertown where they should be arriving soon.

Here is what is expected from the lake snows for the rest of the night...

Off Lake Erie things should remain relatively quiet through about 8 pm or so...with just some flurries/light snow showers primarily across Niagara/Orleans counties and far northern Erie county. After that time gradual veering of the low level wind field will re- establish a longer fetch across the lake...and this coupled with another brief increase in moisture below 6-7 kft should help to temporarily re-organize a band of lake snows that will shift southward across the Buffalo area later this evening and into the Southtowns/Southern Erie county a little after midnight...with the lake snows then weakening again and retracting back toward the lakeshore overnight as moisture decreases and low-level winds weaken. While this second round of lake snow is not expected to be as potent as the initial round seen this afternoon...it still appears likely to produce an additional 1-3" or accumulation as it redevelops and pushes south across the area.

Off Lake Ontario the band of moderate to heavy snow will lift a little further north and into portions of the Watertown area early this evening...then will wobble about between the Watertown area and the far northern Tug Hill region through the early overnight hours.
The band will then sag a little back further south toward the Tug Hill during the balance of the night...with it also weakening and retracting back closer to the lakeshore late as moisture diminishes and winds weaken. Given better moisture and an upstream connection to Lake Erie...this band will continue to produce moderate to heavy snowfall for much of tonight (especially this evening)...with another foot or so of fresh accumulation falling in the most persistent snows south of Watertown.

Outside of the above areas...there will be just a few scattered light snow showers or flurries overnight, with low temps ranging from 5 to 15 above, and wind chills running in the single digits for the most part.

Tuesday morning...continued drying and backing of the low level flow will send whatever is left of the lake effect back northward along and a bit inland from the lake shores in a much-weakened state...
before these fall apart entirely and/or exit into Canada during the late morning/midday hours. With moisture thinning to the point where ice nuclei may be lost within the cloud-bearing layer...the lake response could potentially end as some freezing drizzle if it manages to survive long enough. Quiet weather is then expected later Tuesday and through Tuesday night with surface ridging nearby.
Not as cold behind the surface ridge for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Heading into Wednesday, the next weak trough will slide east across the eastern Great Lakes supporting a weak cold front to pass across western and north central New York. Ahead of the frontal passage, warm air advection will support temperatures to rise above normal.
Additionally associated with the frontal passage, chances for a few rain showers and higher elevation snow showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario.

A transient ridge will pass across the region Wednesday night, supporting another brief period of dry weather. As this ridge rapidly exits east into the Atlantic, a sharp and progressive mid/upper level trough will deepen across the middle to upper Mississippi Valley. As a result a strong (985-990mb) surface low will set up across Sault Sainte Marie. Ahead of this system, a strong warm air advection regime will support temperatures to rise up into the upper 40s to near 50. While model guidance continues to have its differences with the low's exact track, overall consensus is for the track east- northeast across southern Ontario and into southern Quebec by Friday. This being said, conditions will be windy Wednesday night through Friday, with the best timing and location for the strongest winds correlating to the position and how the much the low is deepening in relation to western and north central New York. This being said, a 70kt low level jet will slide overhead Thursday night ahead of the main cold front. While this jet will pass across the region during the warm sector of the low which will limit the amount of mixing of higher winds to the surface, the overall set up will favor downsloping on the north/northwest slopes of the higher terrain. Outside of the wind potential, chances for rain showers will arrive Thursday and remain through Thursday night with the passages of the associated warm and incoming cold front.

Rain will quickly transition back to snow Friday, with the passage of a secondary cold front pushing south across the region causing temperatures to tumble back into the 20s. Additionally, gusty winds will continue to be a factor Friday, with a low level jet of 40-50kt remaining overhead in the cold air advection regime. This all being said, the cold air will support a quick hitting, and possibly impactful lake enhanced/upslope snow event for the end of the week, especially for east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A transient ridge and associated warmer air will rapidly shut down lake enhanced/upslope snows late Friday night into Saturday morning.
The period of quiet weather will be brief, as yet another cold front will pass across the region Saturday night, supporting a range of 30 degree temperatures to close out the weekend and the start of the next work week. Confidence on exact track, timing, and strength of these features over the weekend is low to moderate at this distance in time, but overall expect some unsettled weather (rain/snow?) with some dry time built in, along with breezy conditions and temperatures near to a bit above average. Cool northwest lingering on the eastern side of a surface high building east will support the potential for some lake effect/upslope snow showers south of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Remnant lake effect flurries/light snow showers northeast of KBUF will re-organize and shift southward this evening in tandem with a temporary increase in moisture and fetch across Lake Erie...with the redeveloped band likely producing another round of localized LIFR/ IFR conditions as it passes back south across the KBUF terminal between 02z-05z. The edges of this may also bring some brief MVFR to KIAG through 03z...and to KROC between about 02z-05z. Overnight the band will weaken and retract back toward the lakeshore well south of the KBUF terminal...with diminishing amounts of IFR. The remnants of this band will then lift northward mainly to the west of KBUF/KIAG Tuesday morning and dissipate...though will probably still bring some leftover MVFR ceilings/flurries to the above two terminals.

Off Lake Ontario...moderate to heavy lake effect snow and attendant LIFR/IFR will affect areas between KART and the northernmost portion of the Tug Hill this evening...with IFR/LIFR affecting the KART terminal at times. The band will then slip a little further south toward the Tug Hill overnight and gradually weaken...before winds back again Tuesday morning and bring the weakening lake snows back north across the KART terminal with another round of IFR...before its remnants finally dissipate north of KART early Tuesday afternoon.

Outside of the above
conditions will be primarily VFR
with some MVFR ceilings across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier (including at KJHW overnight into Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday night
VFR
with some MVFR/higher terrain IFR ceilings possible across far WNY late.

Wednesday...A period of MVFR/higher terrain IFR ceilings, with a chance for a few rain/snow showers east of the lakes.

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing along with strong southerly winds. Rain changes to snow late Thursday night along a cold frontal passage. Strong winds veer from southerly to westerly.

Friday...Becoming all snow with localized IFR in lake effect snow east/southeast of the lakes. Otherwise MVFR/VFR with scattered light snow showers. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds.

Saturday.. MVFR/VFR in scattered snow showers.

MARINE
A moderate wind flow within small craft advisory range will continue tonight as a clipper low moves through. Winds will gradually diminish late tonight through Tuesday, but still remain at or near Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Another cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds increasing to 30 knots on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a small chance of a brief period of gales.

Strong low pressure will move across Ontario and Quebec Thursday through Friday, with a trailing powerful cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes late Thursday night. Southerly winds will increase to likely gale force Thursday ahead of the cold front, then swing around to westerly Friday behind the front with gales likely continuing on both lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ001-002- 010>012-085.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045.