Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:48 AM   Moonset 1:52 PM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 501 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 030726 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 326 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through Friday along with above normal temperatures. A brief cool down with rain showers is expected for the weekend, especially Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1000 PM Update...
At 7 PM, conditions, upwind satellite, and model trends supported a longer period of clear sky this evening followed by a more gradual increase in high thin clouds. Sky forecast was adjusted accordingly, with low temperatures down another 1-2 degrees given a bit more radiational cooling under weak high pressure overnight. Sheltered valleys of the Susquehanna headwater valleys could reach down to around 40 degrees.
Forecast still on track as of 10 PM so no additional adjustments needed.

Previous discussion...
Dry weather and mostly clear skies is expected tonight along with lows in the 40s.

High pressure moves east of the area on Friday, resulting in a southeasterly return flow. This will bring slightly warmer conditions to the area. Increasing moisture may bring some cloud cover, but skies should still at least be partly sunny.
Highs are expected to be in the 70s for most of the area.

A slow moving cold front will approach the area Friday night, which will allow for increasing clouds. By late Friday night/early Saturday morning, a few rain showers may reach areas west of I-81, but the majority of the rain showers should hold off until the daytime on Saturday. Lows are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
315 AM Update...

A slow-moving warm front sweeping east across the area Saturday night into Sunday will keep showers going. late Sunday into Sunday evening a cold front will bring more showers and a few thunderstorms. Both fronts aren't strong. despite a decent southwest low level flow of warm moist air pwats peak around 1.2". The upper level flow is zonal so these systems keep moving. Storm total rainfall for Friday night to Sunday night will be mostly under and inch. May have to watch to see how much thunderstorms will drop late Sunday but can easily take a quick inch. The vegetation green up is taking up more ground moisture and letting less rain run off.

Saturday night lows will be from the mid 40s to around 50.
Sunday will be cloudy with high from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Sunday night lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Monday and Monday night a secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers. Monday highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s with more sunshine. Monday night lows from the mid 40s in Oneida County to the mid 50s in the Wyoming Valley.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
315 AM Update...

Timing differences on the next system with the GFS the fastest.
Leaned slower toward the ECMWF and CanNH. A warm front moves through with showers Tuesday night to Wednesday evening. An occluded front goes through Thursday with more rain.
Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoons and early evenings. The upper level flow is mostly zonal but a trough approaches the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late in this period.

High will mostly in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure exits the region late today and a frontal system will be pushing rain showers into the region overnight. However, at this time, these showers will either move in just before the end of the period (06Z Sat) or a little later Saturday morning, so left them out of the forecast for now and will reassess for the 12Z forecast.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.

Monday through Tuesday...Mostly dry Monday to midday Tuesday, but increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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