Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:11 AM   Moonset 2:15 PM

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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-240417t2115z/ 505 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion) - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan - .the adjacent waters of lake huron - .and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4246 8274 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4302 8243 4298 8241 time - .mot - .loc 2105z 242deg 52kt 4323 8228 4292 8200 4269 8178

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 031031 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 631 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous showers hang around today, with a chance of non-severe thunderstorms.

- High pressure fills in briefly on Saturday offering drier weather ahead of the next weak cold front that tracks through SE Michigan early Sunday morning.

- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION

Upper level short wave energy, weak elevated instability and deep layer moisture advection along/in advance of surface low pressure and a warm front will sustain areas of showers this morning. Waning elevated instability will limit the risk of additional thunderstorms this morning. Area observations continue to support VFR ceilings for at least the next two to three hours. Continued influx of low level moisture along with the ongoing rain will result in increased chances for MVFR based ceilings after 15Z. A decrease in the overall coverage of showers is expected in the 15 to 18Z time frame. This will open the door to some weak diurnal destabilization, supportive of a chance of thunderstorms (mainly across Metro Detroit) late this afternoon and evening. The sfc low and cold front will progress from northwest to southeast across the forecast area between 19Z and 00Z, leading to a post frontal wind shift to the NNE along with some improvement in ceilings.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Additional chances for thunderstorms across the airspace will be more or less isolated, less than 20 percent, this morning as elevated instability wanes. Convective redevelopment is forecast this afternoon along a cold front. A scattered line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to traverse the airspace between 21Z and 01Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms today.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

DISCUSSION...

Large upper level low/trough over Central North American early this morning, with the center along the northern Minnesota border. The 500 mb low (~540 DAM) will track off to the northeast, reaching Hudson Bay Saturday morning.

Deep southwest flow will maintain above normal temperatures over southeast Michigan right through the weekend. Moisture advection has peaked out with the broad 850-700 mb Theta-E ridge axis extending north, through the Central Great Lakes. Still looks like lingering showers around today with possible thunderstorms as a ribbon of upper level PV approaches from the southwest. Severe weather not expected with weak mid level lapse rates and MLcapes under 750 J/kg.

Height rises/surface ridging expected on Saturday, leading to mainly dry conditions during the day. Low clouds trapped underneath subsidence inversion, with perhaps a bit of drizzle/very light showers toward the southern Michigan border where the higher dew pts reside. Weak height falls/cold front then on track to move through through Saturday night, worthy of chance pops, despite the bulk of the forcing over northern Great Lakes.

Western confluent upper level flow Sunday preceding an upper level ridge axis arriving early next week, supporting at least a 48 hour window of dry and pleasant weather.

MARINE...

A low pressure system will then track through the northern Great Lakes today pulling the warm front up through the region early in the day. This will allow winds to flip around to the south-southwest which will bring in a warmer airmass, helping to keep gusts down.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus on this morning warm frontal passage and may persist into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms then increase coverage once again in the evening as the cold front gets pulled through the region. Brief area of high pressure brings quieter weather on Saturday. Winds will flip around to the northeast behind the cold front tonight, but the area of high pressure will keep winds below 20 knots. Southerly winds will redevelop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through Sunday, but will turn northwesterly behind the front Sunday afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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