Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurelia, IA
 | Sunrise 7:46 AM Sunset 4:55 PM Moonrise 3:44 AM Moonset 1:48 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurelia, IA
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FXUS63 KFSD 151743 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1143 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Quieter conditions with mild temperatures Monday-Wednesday, though fresh snowpack may limit how quickly temperatures initially warm.
- Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will bring the next system with the potential for impacts across the area. More of a strong wind threat than significant snow. However, if more than flurries accompany the cold surge, blowing snow could be more impactful as winds potentially gust to around 50 mph.
- Cooldown with mid-week system will be brief, with seasonably mild temperatures returning Friday into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: The coldest air has moved off to the east and our pre-dawn temperatures have climbed into the mid teens to mid 20s. Mild temperatures will be around for the next 2-3 days as broad upper ridging transitions to a quasi-zonal flow through the first half of the week. Already seeing temperatures near to slightly above freezing in south central SD as of 2 AM, a sign of things to come with highs today expected to range from near freezing east of I-29 to lower-mid 40s in south central SD. That said, NBM shows a 5-10F spread between 10th/90th percentiles of its members. This is a little broader range than we typically see for Day 1, indicating some uncertainty how much the snowpack will impact highs today. That said, HRRR mean is within 1-2F of the NBM so did not stray from the ensemble means at this point.
After a slight evening cool-down, warm advection tonight ahead of a weak wave will result in steady to rising temperatures after midnight, with breezy southwest winds gusting to 25-30 mph expected along and east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. HRRR probabilities are hinting at some fog potential tonight, but with the rising temperatures and increasing wind overnight, do not expect anything widespread.
Mild westerly low level flow Tuesday will continue to eat away at the snowpack, as even surface dew points are expected to climb above freezing by Tuesday afternoon. This could lead to a better chance for areas of fog developing Tuesday night as winds drop off with a passing surface ridge and we'll have another day of snowmelt moisture added to the boundary layer.
The aforementioned wave will have little moisture to work with this far south, so precipitation is not expected with its passage late Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Cooling also looks to be negligible as the coldest post-frontal air slides off to our north/northeast. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will generally range from upper 30s-lower 40s east to some 50s in south-central SD, though again some uncertainty, depending on how quickly the snow melts, or if fog/low clouds do develop Tuesday night and persist into Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: A strengthening wave digs into the northern Plains. While there are some differences in timing of the cold front, general thinking points to Wednesday night remaining rather mild, especially across the southeast half of the CWA, while northwest areas could see sharper cooling already by daybreak Thursday. Low level cooling continues through the day Thursday, with steady to falling temperatures expected in some areas. Greatest impact for our area with this system still looks to be strong post-frontal winds late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. NBM shows moderate (40-60%) probability of advisory level gusts exceeding 45 MPH, but some indications that this may be on the low side. Deterministic model soundings show 50+kt winds atop the mixed layer, which would support higher gusts 55-60+ MPH in some areas near/west of I-29 as seen in the NBM 90th percentile for early Thursday. With the uncertainty in frontal timing, did not alter the NBM just yet. Will monitor trends and adjustments may be needed if confidence in timing increases.
Fortunately, the preceding warm air will make any lingering snow on the ground unblowable, and the track of the system keeps significant snow chances on the low side in our area.
However, some solutions produce a few hundredths of QPF in the cold post-frontal air mass. With the anticipated strong winds, accumulating snow could become more impactful due to additional blowing snow concerns and this will be closely watched in the coming days. For now, those with travel plans should at least be prepared for the strong winds and perhaps occasional flurries.
FRIDAY ONWARD: The cool-down on Thursday looks to be short-lived as mild air quickly returns to the region Friday. Additional weak waves slide through the region this weekend. Precipitation chances are low due to limited moisture and weekend temperatures will likely be cooler than Friday but not cold for this time of year.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1141 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Mainly VFR through the period. There will be some fog potential mainly east of the James River into parts of southwest MN and northwest IA late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Will include some fog mention in these areas.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1143 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Quieter conditions with mild temperatures Monday-Wednesday, though fresh snowpack may limit how quickly temperatures initially warm.
- Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will bring the next system with the potential for impacts across the area. More of a strong wind threat than significant snow. However, if more than flurries accompany the cold surge, blowing snow could be more impactful as winds potentially gust to around 50 mph.
- Cooldown with mid-week system will be brief, with seasonably mild temperatures returning Friday into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: The coldest air has moved off to the east and our pre-dawn temperatures have climbed into the mid teens to mid 20s. Mild temperatures will be around for the next 2-3 days as broad upper ridging transitions to a quasi-zonal flow through the first half of the week. Already seeing temperatures near to slightly above freezing in south central SD as of 2 AM, a sign of things to come with highs today expected to range from near freezing east of I-29 to lower-mid 40s in south central SD. That said, NBM shows a 5-10F spread between 10th/90th percentiles of its members. This is a little broader range than we typically see for Day 1, indicating some uncertainty how much the snowpack will impact highs today. That said, HRRR mean is within 1-2F of the NBM so did not stray from the ensemble means at this point.
After a slight evening cool-down, warm advection tonight ahead of a weak wave will result in steady to rising temperatures after midnight, with breezy southwest winds gusting to 25-30 mph expected along and east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. HRRR probabilities are hinting at some fog potential tonight, but with the rising temperatures and increasing wind overnight, do not expect anything widespread.
Mild westerly low level flow Tuesday will continue to eat away at the snowpack, as even surface dew points are expected to climb above freezing by Tuesday afternoon. This could lead to a better chance for areas of fog developing Tuesday night as winds drop off with a passing surface ridge and we'll have another day of snowmelt moisture added to the boundary layer.
The aforementioned wave will have little moisture to work with this far south, so precipitation is not expected with its passage late Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Cooling also looks to be negligible as the coldest post-frontal air slides off to our north/northeast. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will generally range from upper 30s-lower 40s east to some 50s in south-central SD, though again some uncertainty, depending on how quickly the snow melts, or if fog/low clouds do develop Tuesday night and persist into Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: A strengthening wave digs into the northern Plains. While there are some differences in timing of the cold front, general thinking points to Wednesday night remaining rather mild, especially across the southeast half of the CWA, while northwest areas could see sharper cooling already by daybreak Thursday. Low level cooling continues through the day Thursday, with steady to falling temperatures expected in some areas. Greatest impact for our area with this system still looks to be strong post-frontal winds late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. NBM shows moderate (40-60%) probability of advisory level gusts exceeding 45 MPH, but some indications that this may be on the low side. Deterministic model soundings show 50+kt winds atop the mixed layer, which would support higher gusts 55-60+ MPH in some areas near/west of I-29 as seen in the NBM 90th percentile for early Thursday. With the uncertainty in frontal timing, did not alter the NBM just yet. Will monitor trends and adjustments may be needed if confidence in timing increases.
Fortunately, the preceding warm air will make any lingering snow on the ground unblowable, and the track of the system keeps significant snow chances on the low side in our area.
However, some solutions produce a few hundredths of QPF in the cold post-frontal air mass. With the anticipated strong winds, accumulating snow could become more impactful due to additional blowing snow concerns and this will be closely watched in the coming days. For now, those with travel plans should at least be prepared for the strong winds and perhaps occasional flurries.
FRIDAY ONWARD: The cool-down on Thursday looks to be short-lived as mild air quickly returns to the region Friday. Additional weak waves slide through the region this weekend. Precipitation chances are low due to limited moisture and weekend temperatures will likely be cooler than Friday but not cold for this time of year.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1141 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Mainly VFR through the period. There will be some fog potential mainly east of the James River into parts of southwest MN and northwest IA late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Will include some fog mention in these areas.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCKP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCKP
Wind History Graph: CKP
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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