Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 3:22 AM   Moonset 2:29 PM

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FXUS63 KLBF 030438 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1138 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- High precipitation chances Friday afternoon into Friday night with some strong storms possible near and south of Highway 2.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday night through Monday evening. SPC is highlighting a Slight Risk for severe weather Monday into Monday evening east of Highway 83.

- Temperatures remain slightly below seasonal through the weekend into next week.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

At 19Z...weak surface high pressure extended from southern Wyoming across western Nebraska. Much drier air has moved into western Nebraska. Dewpoints as low as the upper teens to lower 20s. This has produced humidity levels as low as the upper teens. With west to northwest winds gusting to around 25 mph, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are occurring this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An upper trough was currently located from western MT through ID and eastern WA, well behind the main upper trough over ND and eastern MT. The upper trough out west will advance toward WY and northern ID by 12Z Friday. This will bring a return southerly wind to the area late tonight. Also a slight chance for showers after midnight to the western Sandhills as weak lift in the mid levels increases. Lows tonight will range in the 30s, with lows near 32 at Valentine and Gordon where winds will remain light and variable.

Friday into Friday evening...the upper trough will advance into central ND through central WY by late afternoon. This will drive a cold front into the area. Gusty south winds 20 to 30 mph will occur ahead of the front. Dewpoints will increase into the mid and upper 40s across southwest and central Nebraska in the afternoon. Despite modest dewpoints, steep mid level lapse rates (H7-H5) near 8.5 C/KM, strong lift, and 0-6km shear near 50kts will exist ahead of storm development. The latest CAMS develop storms near the surface front across the western Sandhills with increased development southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should reach a line from east of Valentine through North Platte and Imperial by 6pm CDT. SPC is highlighting a Marginal Risk for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday evening near and south of Highway 2. Damaging winds are possible with fairly dry air up to 700mb, although hail up to 1 inch diameter is also possible with the stronger storms. Convection should exit the area by 06Z Saturday, with clear skies and surface high pressure building in overnight. This will bring a chilly night, with subfreezing lows expected across the western Sandhills with mid to upper 30s to the east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Saturday, sunny and somewhat cool with highs mainly in the lower 60s. Winds will be light northerly.

Saturday night, winds turn southeasterly with lows not as cold in the upper 30s to near 40.

Sunday, A deep upper trough will move into the Great Basin with a closed low centered over Nevada. Upper flow will be southwesterly over the area with dewpoints rising into the mid 40s to low 50s with a slight chance for afternoon showers.

Sunday night through Monday night, the upper trough will take on a negative tilt and extend from western MT through southeastern CO by 18Z Monday. May see a distinct dryline develop across the west with dewpoints into the 50s across the east. Models agree showers and storm will increase through the day as they move eastward. Due to a strongly sheared environment with steep lapse rates, surface features will play as strong role in where the strong to severe storms focus. SPC is highlighting a Slight Risk for severe weather Monday into Monday evening east of Highway 83. A further westward shift is possible. Keep informed of future updates on the evolution of this approaching system Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday, the upper flow will remain fairly zonal as a fairly west to east upper trough and closed low extends across the Northern Plains. This will keep at least a low chance for showers and perhaps a few afternoon evening thunderstorms in the forecast. Highs will remain slightly below normal mainly in the 60s during the period. Windy conditions possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR will continue through midday Friday for western and north central Nebraska terminals, then aviation weather concerns arise. Clouds thicken and ceilings lower throughout the day as a storm system approaches the area. Rain showers begin to overspread northern terminals (VTN) by late morning, then a line of thunderstorms will likely cross the area late afternoon or early evening with additional rain showers to follow. A boundary will separate strong southerly winds gusting 30kts at southern terminals (LBF) from relatively lighter east/northeast flow for northern terminals (VTN). Winds should flip to north/northwesterly behind the storms around sunset.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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