Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marine City, MI
May 3, 2024 2:19 AM EDT (06:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:11 AM Moonset 2:16 PM |
LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-240417t2115z/ 505 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion) - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan - .the adjacent waters of lake huron - .and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4246 8274 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4302 8243 4298 8241 time - .mot - .loc 2105z 242deg 52kt 4323 8228 4292 8200 4269 8178
the affected areas were - . Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion) - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan - .the adjacent waters of lake huron - .and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4246 8274 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4302 8243 4298 8241 time - .mot - .loc 2105z 242deg 52kt 4323 8228 4292 8200 4269 8178
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 030357 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1157 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight and this morning and again this afternoon as a cold front tracks across SE Michigan
- Severe weather is not expected Friday, although thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, lightning, and isolated wind gusts to 40 mph. Storm motion will be southwest to northeast at 40 mph.
- High pressure fills in briefly on Saturday offering drier weather ahead of the next cold front that tracks through SE Michigan early Sunday morning.
- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
AVIATION
Clusters of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over SE Mi late tonight through the morning. Ongoing activity along and north of the warm front combines with additional showers and storms moving in from the IL/southern Lake Mi area as the front moves very slowly from northern IN and western OH into southern Lower Mi. Earlier nocturnal timing of rainfall contributes to expansion of MVFR ceiling in and around the warm front as it moves northward and eastward during the morning followed by a similar cloud field quickly followed by the associated cold front. The cold front is set to move through SE Mi during afternoon also providing a focus for showers and scattered storms until exiting eastward by Friday evening.
For DTW/D21 Convection... An isolated and elevated thunderstorm occurs late tonight among scattered to numerous showers across SE Mi. The storms will have ordinary intensity through the morning until daytime instability builds up in the afternoon. A renewed time window for thunderstorms then occurs mid to late afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Scattered coverage occurs among numerous showers along the front, although strong to severe storms are not expected.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorms tonight and Friday.
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Friday.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 937 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
UPDATE...
Convective trends are the subject of the update this evening as activity to the south and west shows some staying power after sunset. The surface warm front is still south of the Michigan border and was the focus for strong thunderstorms during peak afternoon instability. Intensity has since diminished while coverage shows signs of near surface to slightly elevated redevelopment responding to quick veering of flow to SW by the 850 mb level. Upstream radar derived VWP's support model depictions of relatively weak 20-25 kt flow that has proven adequate to improve the moisture and lapse rate profile at least up to the I-75 corridor judging by the 00Z DTX sounding. There is still some uncertainty on intensity and longevity with northward extent until later tonight when current trends add some confidence to expectations for the survival of upstream IL to mid MS valley activity into Lower Mi as nocturnal moisture transport and elevated instability peak toward sunrise. The evening update will make an incremental increase in POPs from south to north this evening becoming borderline numerous across SE Mi late tonight and Friday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
DISCUSSION...
Another seasonably warm day has ensued across SE MI today, with temperatures for most inland locations peaking in the low 70s.
Elevated portions of the inbound warm front already starting to bring a band of convectively enhanced cloud cover into western lower MI at issuance, with expanding cloud cover expected through the evening. Very dry low levels, denoted by T/Td spreads of 20+ degrees, confirm that present radar echoes are just virga so will hold on to a dry forecast through the evening.
In typical warm advection fashion, precipitation chances increase with the arrival of the low level moisture axis late tonight.
Leading wave of low level moisture advection is tied to a convectively enhanced shortwave that lifts into lower MI after 06z (2am local) tonight, but initial attempts at low level saturation will struggle to overcome the dry resident airmass (12z DTX RAOB observed PWAT of 0.62" this morning). Can already see this struggle ongoing over northern IN/OH (per GOES-16 visible imagery) where a sharp gradient in the cumulus field is observed. Nonetheless, broad isentropic ascent and weak instability aloft (HRRR ensemble mean MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg) should assist the saturation process to allow increasing coverage of showers and potentially a few thunderstorms Friday morning. Best coverage will likely be across the Tri Cities, as the SW-NE orientation of an incoming cold front pushes a narrow corridor of moisture into SW lower Michigan and the northwest portions of the cwa during the morning hours. The cold front will then drift eastward throughout the day, becoming a renewed albeit weakening forcing mechanism for surface-based convection to develop Friday afternoon. Even in the absence of showers/storms, the deep column moisture will support a cloudy day across lower MI.
Did reduce forecast high temperatures on Friday by several degrees, owing to the increased potential for cloud cover and shower activity to interfere with diurnal heating. Still, 850mb temperatures around 10-12 C are indicative of a seasonably warm airmass which will still support daytime highs Friday in the low 70s. These cooler boundary layer conditions, combined with mid level lapse rates below 6 C/km will keep MLCAPE prospects around 500 J/kg. With the front extending well ahead of the more dynamic parent system (over MN/WI), there will be a notable absence of upper jet forcing and mid/upper level flow. So while thunderstorms may develop along the fropa Friday afternoon, environmental conditions will not be favorable for storm organization/longevity, so severe weather is not expected.
The front will have little impact on thermal profiles heading into the weekend, as the boundary will be stretched and eventually wash out as its parent system stalls again, this time over Hudson Bay.
This results in an extended period of above normal temperatures, with highs comfortably in the 70s and lows in the 50s through early next week. Mid-level ridging pattern generally holds steady through early week, with dry weather expected Saturday ahead of another cold front Sunday morning. Strongest signal for a pattern shift holds off until middle of next week when a strong Pacific low tracks across CONUS, bringing the next meaningful window for precipitation.
MARINE...
High pressure over Lake Huron is resulting in light and variable flow this afternoon, but an approaching warm front to the southwest will help flow to become more easterly, but remain below 20 knots, for tonight. A low pressure system will then track through the northern Great Lakes on Friday pulling the warm front up through the region early in the day. This will allow winds to flip around to the south-southwest which will bring in a warmer airmass, helping to keep gusts down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday morning across the area on the warm front with continued activity later in the day along the cold front. Shower chances carry through Friday night. High pressure brings quieter weather on Saturday with another cold front coming on Sunday.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1157 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight and this morning and again this afternoon as a cold front tracks across SE Michigan
- Severe weather is not expected Friday, although thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, lightning, and isolated wind gusts to 40 mph. Storm motion will be southwest to northeast at 40 mph.
- High pressure fills in briefly on Saturday offering drier weather ahead of the next cold front that tracks through SE Michigan early Sunday morning.
- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
AVIATION
Clusters of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over SE Mi late tonight through the morning. Ongoing activity along and north of the warm front combines with additional showers and storms moving in from the IL/southern Lake Mi area as the front moves very slowly from northern IN and western OH into southern Lower Mi. Earlier nocturnal timing of rainfall contributes to expansion of MVFR ceiling in and around the warm front as it moves northward and eastward during the morning followed by a similar cloud field quickly followed by the associated cold front. The cold front is set to move through SE Mi during afternoon also providing a focus for showers and scattered storms until exiting eastward by Friday evening.
For DTW/D21 Convection... An isolated and elevated thunderstorm occurs late tonight among scattered to numerous showers across SE Mi. The storms will have ordinary intensity through the morning until daytime instability builds up in the afternoon. A renewed time window for thunderstorms then occurs mid to late afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Scattered coverage occurs among numerous showers along the front, although strong to severe storms are not expected.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorms tonight and Friday.
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Friday.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 937 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
UPDATE...
Convective trends are the subject of the update this evening as activity to the south and west shows some staying power after sunset. The surface warm front is still south of the Michigan border and was the focus for strong thunderstorms during peak afternoon instability. Intensity has since diminished while coverage shows signs of near surface to slightly elevated redevelopment responding to quick veering of flow to SW by the 850 mb level. Upstream radar derived VWP's support model depictions of relatively weak 20-25 kt flow that has proven adequate to improve the moisture and lapse rate profile at least up to the I-75 corridor judging by the 00Z DTX sounding. There is still some uncertainty on intensity and longevity with northward extent until later tonight when current trends add some confidence to expectations for the survival of upstream IL to mid MS valley activity into Lower Mi as nocturnal moisture transport and elevated instability peak toward sunrise. The evening update will make an incremental increase in POPs from south to north this evening becoming borderline numerous across SE Mi late tonight and Friday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
DISCUSSION...
Another seasonably warm day has ensued across SE MI today, with temperatures for most inland locations peaking in the low 70s.
Elevated portions of the inbound warm front already starting to bring a band of convectively enhanced cloud cover into western lower MI at issuance, with expanding cloud cover expected through the evening. Very dry low levels, denoted by T/Td spreads of 20+ degrees, confirm that present radar echoes are just virga so will hold on to a dry forecast through the evening.
In typical warm advection fashion, precipitation chances increase with the arrival of the low level moisture axis late tonight.
Leading wave of low level moisture advection is tied to a convectively enhanced shortwave that lifts into lower MI after 06z (2am local) tonight, but initial attempts at low level saturation will struggle to overcome the dry resident airmass (12z DTX RAOB observed PWAT of 0.62" this morning). Can already see this struggle ongoing over northern IN/OH (per GOES-16 visible imagery) where a sharp gradient in the cumulus field is observed. Nonetheless, broad isentropic ascent and weak instability aloft (HRRR ensemble mean MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg) should assist the saturation process to allow increasing coverage of showers and potentially a few thunderstorms Friday morning. Best coverage will likely be across the Tri Cities, as the SW-NE orientation of an incoming cold front pushes a narrow corridor of moisture into SW lower Michigan and the northwest portions of the cwa during the morning hours. The cold front will then drift eastward throughout the day, becoming a renewed albeit weakening forcing mechanism for surface-based convection to develop Friday afternoon. Even in the absence of showers/storms, the deep column moisture will support a cloudy day across lower MI.
Did reduce forecast high temperatures on Friday by several degrees, owing to the increased potential for cloud cover and shower activity to interfere with diurnal heating. Still, 850mb temperatures around 10-12 C are indicative of a seasonably warm airmass which will still support daytime highs Friday in the low 70s. These cooler boundary layer conditions, combined with mid level lapse rates below 6 C/km will keep MLCAPE prospects around 500 J/kg. With the front extending well ahead of the more dynamic parent system (over MN/WI), there will be a notable absence of upper jet forcing and mid/upper level flow. So while thunderstorms may develop along the fropa Friday afternoon, environmental conditions will not be favorable for storm organization/longevity, so severe weather is not expected.
The front will have little impact on thermal profiles heading into the weekend, as the boundary will be stretched and eventually wash out as its parent system stalls again, this time over Hudson Bay.
This results in an extended period of above normal temperatures, with highs comfortably in the 70s and lows in the 50s through early next week. Mid-level ridging pattern generally holds steady through early week, with dry weather expected Saturday ahead of another cold front Sunday morning. Strongest signal for a pattern shift holds off until middle of next week when a strong Pacific low tracks across CONUS, bringing the next meaningful window for precipitation.
MARINE...
High pressure over Lake Huron is resulting in light and variable flow this afternoon, but an approaching warm front to the southwest will help flow to become more easterly, but remain below 20 knots, for tonight. A low pressure system will then track through the northern Great Lakes on Friday pulling the warm front up through the region early in the day. This will allow winds to flip around to the south-southwest which will bring in a warmer airmass, helping to keep gusts down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday morning across the area on the warm front with continued activity later in the day along the cold front. Shower chances carry through Friday night. High pressure brings quieter weather on Saturday with another cold front coming on Sunday.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| AGCM4 | 6 mi | 61 min | 56°F | 48°F | 29.96 | |||
| MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 19 mi | 61 min | 54°F | 29.96 | ||||
| FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 21 mi | 61 min | W 7G | 52°F | 29.96 | 47°F | ||
| PBWM4 | 21 mi | 61 min | 52°F | 29.96 | ||||
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 26 mi | 79 min | 0G | 60°F | 30.00 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPHN ST CLAIR COUNTY INTL,MI | 14 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 52°F | 50°F | 94% | 29.99 |
| KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI | 19 sm | 24 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 59°F | 52°F | 77% | 29.96 | |
| CYZR SARNIA CHRIS HADFIELD,CN | 22 sm | 19 min | calm | 9 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 48°F | 87% | 29.97 |
Detroit, MI,
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