Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:33 AM   Moonset 2:36 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 031023 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 623 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the region this morning will shift eastward to the New England coast during the afternoon. This high will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPDATE
Made some minor adjustments early this morning based on current obs. Otherwise no significant changes with this update. Temperatures are mainly in the 40s to lower 50s to start the day.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0330]...Surface high pressure over the region this morning slides east into New England this afternoon, with an upper level ridge axis moving overhead through the day. This will result in continued dry conditions, with just some increasing high level clouds. Patchy low stratus clouds in place across northern/eastern parts of the area should mix out by late morning. A cooler onshore SE flow will keep temperatures cooler than that past few days. Highs will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

Upper level ridge axis gradually shifts east of the area tonight, as a weak disturbance approaching from the west slightly flattens out the ridge. High/mid level clouds will increase thicken from west to east, with a few sprinkles possible west of the Hudson Valley. Dry low levels should preclude any measurable rainfall. With mostly cloudy skies lows will be somewhat mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend days in terms of mostly dry weather with near normal temperatures. The surface high is forecast to remain positioned off the New England coast, while ridging aloft is re-established across the Northeast. A slow-moving frontal system will continue to gradually inch eastward from the Great Lakes. The front may get close enough to provide enough forcing for scattered showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley during the afternoon. Highs looks to be close to normal ranging from the upper 50s in the higher terrain to upper 60s in valleys.

Better moisture(PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV)
and forcing start to arrive Sat night, especially late in the overnight, as the upper ridge axis breaks down with a stronger short wave moving in from the west. Will mention likely PoPs west of the Hudson Valley and chance east. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to near 50.

Southerly flow increases ahead of the front as it advances into western NY on Sunday. Moisture will continue to surge northward ahead of the boundary, with the aforementioned short wave trough aloft moving eastward across the region. This will result in showers likely across the entire area for much of the day.
With the clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, it will be a cool/raw day with highs only in the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Rainfall amounts generally look to be around 0.50-1.00", with the max focused on the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. These rainfall amounts will not cause any hydro concerns.

The surface front and short wave aloft move into New England Sun night, with showers tapering off from west to east mainly during the evening. At this time it appears the overnight hours should be mainly dry with high pressure building from the west and a developing W-NW flow ushering in drier air. Lows expected to be similar to recent nights with mid 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Long term begins at 12z Monday with the cold front departing off to our east. There could be a few lingering showers around during the morning, especially across western New England, but overall we should see a drying trend as we head through the day.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday, upper ridging amplifies to our west with upper troughing to our north in southeast Canada.
This will lead to upper confluence near our region and allow a ridge of high pressure to build in from the northwest. With large-scale subsidence, Monday afternoon through Tuesday should be dry. With cold/dry advection and deep mixing behind the front, we bumped temperatures up a few degrees above NBM guidance. Highs Monday and Tuesday will range from upper 60s in the high terrain to mid/upper 70s for the valleys. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the 40s to 50s.

Tuesday night through Thursday night...A warm front approaches from the southwest Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing with it a chance for some showers. However, the exact timing of the warm front remains uncertain at this time. Beyond that, we get into a pattern with broad, positively tilted upper troughing over the center of the country and flat upper ridging to our east. This puts our region in an area of deep, persistent SW flow aloft.
With an active jet stream to our west/northwest, there will be several disturbances aloft tracking through our area over the middle to end of next week. While it is too early to specifically time out any of these features, Wednesday through the end of next week looks to be unsettled, so will mention chance PoPs for the entirety of the second half of the long term period. Some thunder may be possible depending on the timing of these disturbances relative to peak daytime heating. With persistent southwest flow and warm advection, highs each day will be in the 60s to 70s with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s.
The second half of the week also looks more humid compared to Monday and Tuesday. For days 8-14, we may remain in an unsettled pattern with the CPC expecting above normal precip and near normal temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 12z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 6:15 AM EDT except at PSF where MVFR cigs are in place due to low stratus.
The low stratus will continue to impact the terminals through the next few hours with some MVFR cigs, but has not been able to expand southwestwards as rapidly as previously expected. Will continue tempo groups through 13-14z to highlight the possibility of MVFR cigs, but all TAF sites should see improvement back to VFR conditions by 14z. VFR conditions then continue through at least midnight tonight with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds around. Overnight tonight, southeasterly winds may allow for more low stratus to develop, especially at ALB/PSF/POU. Will refine the timing and cigs associated with this low stratus with future TAF issuances.

Winds will be from the east at 5 kt or less through early to mid- morning, then becoming southeasterly at 5-10 kt from mid to late morning through the remainder of the TAF period at ALB and through around 6z tonight at GFL/PSF/POU, then becoming light and variable at these 3 sites through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
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Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
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Fri -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonset
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Fri -- 01:09 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

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