Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Erie Beach, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A line of moderate to heavy rain with the pre-frontal trough is working through western New York, and will shortly move east into the Finger Lakes region this evening. With this band of heavier (convection) we may continue to see some localized wind gusts up to +40 mph, especially just in front of the precipitation.

Tonight, the cold front will continue to move east across the area, with the associated deep/sharp mid level trough taking on more negative tilt with time as strong shortwave energy rounds its base.
Strong low level convergence along the frontal boundary will combine with strong forcing for ascent ahead of the trough and from upper level jet dynamics to produce a wide swath of showers tonight, with rain lagging behind the surface cold front as it becomes more anabatic in nature.

Monday, the negatively tiled mid level trough will continue to move east, reaching eastern NY and New England by late afternoon. A wave of low pressure developing along the cold front will move north and consolidate with a series of waves along the frontal zone, evolving into a new low pressure center over southern Quebec. Widespread showers in the morning will taper off and end from west to east later in the day as deep moisture and forcing move east. Expect a mainly dry afternoon from the Genesee Valley westward. East of Lake Ontario in closer proximity to the system, showers will last through the afternoon and evening. It will turn quite windy again Monday, with gusts of 25-35 mph areawide, and up to 40 mph southeast of Lake Ontario.

Monday night, evening lake enhanced showers east of Lake Ontario near the western periphery of the departing low will taper off to scattered light showers overnight, with mainly dry weather elsewhere as a narrow ridge surface and aloft builds into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. Winds will diminish in the evening as the pressure gradient relaxes and the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Transient ridge providing a brief period of dry weather across the area will slide east into eastern NY and western New England Tuesday afternoon. Large mid/upper level low and attendant area of surface low pressure moving into the upper Great Lakes will send a surface cold front into western and northcentral NY Tuesday afternoon. This will bring the chance for a few showers back into western NY by midday, and into the eastern Lake Ontario region by mid to late afternoon. The highest chance for showers will be across the far western areas closer to the better mid/upper level forcing.

The large mid/upper level low will then sit and spin over the eastern third of Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast for much of the period. Just looking at the larger picture from purely a pattern recognition standpoint alone, this looks like a favorable lake effect setup. A cold cyclonic flow will become established aloft with several embedded ill-timed shortwaves pinwheeling about this feature that will bring enhanced chances for more in the way of widespread showers anytime one of these features passes over the area. More notably will be 850mb temperatures averaging from zero to -2C or -3C and lake surface temps of +15C/+16C, with plentiful mid/upper level moisture sitting atop this cold low level airmass within the cyclonic flow. This will elicit a strong lake response in the Wednesday through Thursday night timeframe with the potential for localized significant rainfall downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, along with breezy conditions. Lake effect rain will be ongoing in between each shortwave, however expect the most intense lake effect rain when aided by any of these shortwaves passing overhead. These features will also cause the bands to waver some as they pass through.

Off Lake Erie: Lake effect rain showers will be found northeast of the Lake (Buffalo area) Tuesday night into Wednesday night under a general southwest flow, before a trough swings through the area veering winds to the west, sending the lake plume east of the Lake (south of Buffalo Metro) for Thursday and Thursday night.

Off Lake Ontario: Similar setup here, although response will be a bit delayed before southerly flow eventually veers southwesterly by later Wednesday into the first half of Thursday with main band northeast of the Lake (Watertown area and north). Winds then veer west for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as the trough passes through sending the plume east of the Lake (Watertown/Tug Hill).

Localized substantial rainfall will be possible in areas downwind of the both lakes if the bands persist over any one area for an extended period of time. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible closer to the Lakes. Too early to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will be.

Above average temperatures to start the period will trend below average for Wednesday and Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Large upper low will start to shift east with the main trough axis crossing the lower Great Lakes region Friday. This will veer winds more to the west-northwest sending lake bands east-southeast of the Lakes before weakening Friday night into Saturday as mid level moisture is stripped away behind the main trough axis and surface high pressure tries to build in from the south. That said, Medium range guidance continues to struggle with how fast the large upper level low exits the region next weekend. This will determine if we start to dry out or if periodic synoptic and/or weaker lake effect showers continue.

Below average temperatures will trend back toward average by the end of next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front to our west will move east across the eastern Great Lakes tonight, with the moderate to at times heavy rain advancing east this evening. Also, we will continue to see local wind gusts of 35+ knots at times.

Periods of showers will then continue overnight through Monday morning areawide with any of the more persistent showers bringing some modest VSBY restrictions. Rain will then end from west to east from late morning through afternoon for most of the area, with showers continuing east of Lake Ontario.

MVFR/IFR CIGS can be anticipated tonight and continue through Monday morning before gradual improvement to MVFR/VFR for lower elevations and MVFR higher terrain in the afternoon. It will turn quite windy again Monday, with gusts of 25-35 knots areawide, strongest southeast of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR from west to east with showers developing later in the day.

Wednesday through Thursday.. MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Heavier lake effect rain east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a few showers likely, especially southeast of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

MARINE
Moderately strong low pressure will move north to James Bay by tonight with a cold front moving east across the lower Great Lakes tonight. Moderate southerlies will continue ahead of the front through this evening, with Small Craft Advisory conditions on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The largely offshore wind component will direct the higher wave action into the offshore and Canadian waters through this evening.

Winds will veer to the west behind the cold front, then become WNW by Monday. Higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on Lake Erie. WNW winds will continue to ramp up Monday as cold advection increases behind secondary low pressure moving north across Eastern NY. This will support high end Small Craft Advisories on both lakes at a minimum, with some risk of low end gales on Lake Ontario from late morning through the evening.

Unsettled weather will continue through much of the week, with Small Craft Advisory conditions much of the time. Cold air aloft and bands of lake effect rain may support a risk of waterspouts as well mid to late week, although boundary layer winds may potentially be too strong to allow waterspouts to develop.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ044-045.