Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM   Moonset 1:17 PM

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LMZ878 Expires:202405030915;;520882 Fzus63 Kmkx 030156 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 856 pm cdt Thu may 2 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
low pressure around 29.6 inches will move from northeast north dakota to far southwest ontario overnight. South to southeast winds overnight will shift west on Friday, as a cold front moves east through the region. Areas of fog will be possible overnight into Friday morning, prior to winds shifting to the west, especially over the south half of the lake.
lighter winds are expected Friday afternoon and night, with high pressure around 30.0 inches moving east through the region. A cold front will move across lake michigan on Saturday afternoon and evening, before high pressure around 30.1 inches moves into the region for Sunday. Winds are expected to be light to modest through the upcoming weekend.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-030915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 856 pm cdt Thu may 2 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Scattered rain showers and Thunderstorms through early evening, then numerous rain showers and scattered Thunderstorms overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.Friday - West winds 10 to 15 kt veering to northeast. Areas of fog in the morning. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

LMZ800
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FXUS63 KIWX 030048 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 848 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures Friday, followed by above normal temperatures through the middle of next week with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- There are chances for showers and thunderstorms this week. A few strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into tonight, mainly across northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Instability continues to increase on the south side of a warm front which is advancing northward through the afternoon. We have already seen a couple of showers/storms over NW Indiana, but these have weakened considerably as they've raced north- northeastward into the cool sector with more stable conditions.
Diurnal heating in the warm sector and moisture advection will lead to MLCAPE ~ 1200 J/kg (MUCAPE closer to 2000). However, 0-6km shear of only 20-25kt and relatively unimpressive mid- level lapse rates will keep the situation pretty tame. If any updrafts become better organized, the best chance for an isolated hail or strong wind threat (although DCAPE values suggest sub-severe winds) would be over far Southwest Michigan and Northwest Indiana.

Overnight, as the shortwave pivots off northeast into Canada, upper level divergence/diffluence over our area (coupled with PWATs increasing to ~1.3in) will aid in more widespread shower and embeded thunderstorm development out ahead of the cold front. This will march eastward through the morning, with precip finally dying off west to east during the afternoon hours. With the frontal passage and rain/cloud cover, highs will only top out in the low 70s.

In the long-term, confidence is high that we are going to remain in an active pattern characterized by above normal temperatures and daily shower/thunderstorm chances. However, no significant weather impacts are anticipated at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 808 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

A stationary front was oriented northwest/southeast just south of the terminals. Storms were generally firing north of the front the past few hours. There has been a diurnal decrease in activity toward the start of the TAF period. The atmosphere remains anomalously moist ahead of more upper level energy moving north from southeast MO into far southern IL. Expect more showers and storms as the activity moves toward northern Indiana tonight and as a cold front approaches from the west.
Refined timing of MVFR ceilings according to the latest guidance in light of conditional climatology for favored hours basically from daybreak to late morning.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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