Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nora, IL
May 3, 2024 7:43 AM CDT (12:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM Moonset 1:48 PM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 031038 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 538 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week.
- The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 1 Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday for portions of the area.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Following yesterday's all day rain in much of eastern Iowa (thankfully drought areas included), and the afternoon barrage of severe storms in far eastern McDonough county Illinois, today we're in store for a very pleasant day as the slow moving cold front and moisture along it exit to the east before sunrise. Some fog will potentially be found over the area through 8AM, but the majority of today looks to be light winds, mostly sunny skies, and mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s as high pressure moves through our northern counties.
Tonight, a quiet evening will allow for quick temperature drop off into the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Increasing clouds are expected overnight, as another progressive upper trof approaches from the west. While some models are very aggressive on moisture transport ahead of this wave, the mean is quite low on pops prior to 12Z Sunday. The EC is by far the most aggressive on this moist transport.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Saturday remains a low confidence day within our forecast. The frontal precipitation appears supported by decent dynamics, but the the timing of this front is rather early, and could be near the Mississippi River by Noon-1pm Saturday. That early arrival may not allow for significant heating and CAPE development ahead of the fropa. That said, there are some slower solutions, such as the NAMnest, and these appear to be the reason for SPC's placement of marginal (level 1) in our central and eastern CWA These would be progressive storms, and a marginal wind threat appears the be the mode of any severe weather, with mainly small hail resulting from the limited instability. Following the fropa out of the area by afternoon, the threat for rain and storms will end.
Another chilly night is expected Saturday night, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, but Sunday, much like today, appears to be seasonally pleasant in the lower 70s.
Global models are in good agreement that a large upper trof will build into the Midwest in the Monday through Wednesday time frame.
This should sweep another dynamically supported warm advection band of showers and storms through our area centered on Monday night into Tuesday. The quick flow aloft, and progressive boundary should keep QPF totals from being problematic, with most spots well under 1 inch in the NBM/WPC mean.
Seasonally pleasant temperatures are forecast through Wednesday, with a bit of a cool down by late week, as the upper trof deepens over the Midwest.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Shallow dense fog will be possible in northeast Iowa through 13Z this morning, possibly affecting CID and DBQ. After 13Z, a VFR weather will be widespread over eastern Iowa and Illinois through late evening tonight, then some high clouds will be possible after 06z tonight, as showers and thunderstorms move through western and center Iowa. After 12Z Saturday, rain and some thunderstorms will begin moving over eastern Iowa.
Wind will be light through the next 24 hours.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 538 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week.
- The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 1 Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday for portions of the area.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Following yesterday's all day rain in much of eastern Iowa (thankfully drought areas included), and the afternoon barrage of severe storms in far eastern McDonough county Illinois, today we're in store for a very pleasant day as the slow moving cold front and moisture along it exit to the east before sunrise. Some fog will potentially be found over the area through 8AM, but the majority of today looks to be light winds, mostly sunny skies, and mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s as high pressure moves through our northern counties.
Tonight, a quiet evening will allow for quick temperature drop off into the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Increasing clouds are expected overnight, as another progressive upper trof approaches from the west. While some models are very aggressive on moisture transport ahead of this wave, the mean is quite low on pops prior to 12Z Sunday. The EC is by far the most aggressive on this moist transport.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Saturday remains a low confidence day within our forecast. The frontal precipitation appears supported by decent dynamics, but the the timing of this front is rather early, and could be near the Mississippi River by Noon-1pm Saturday. That early arrival may not allow for significant heating and CAPE development ahead of the fropa. That said, there are some slower solutions, such as the NAMnest, and these appear to be the reason for SPC's placement of marginal (level 1) in our central and eastern CWA These would be progressive storms, and a marginal wind threat appears the be the mode of any severe weather, with mainly small hail resulting from the limited instability. Following the fropa out of the area by afternoon, the threat for rain and storms will end.
Another chilly night is expected Saturday night, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, but Sunday, much like today, appears to be seasonally pleasant in the lower 70s.
Global models are in good agreement that a large upper trof will build into the Midwest in the Monday through Wednesday time frame.
This should sweep another dynamically supported warm advection band of showers and storms through our area centered on Monday night into Tuesday. The quick flow aloft, and progressive boundary should keep QPF totals from being problematic, with most spots well under 1 inch in the NBM/WPC mean.
Seasonally pleasant temperatures are forecast through Wednesday, with a bit of a cool down by late week, as the upper trof deepens over the Midwest.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Shallow dense fog will be possible in northeast Iowa through 13Z this morning, possibly affecting CID and DBQ. After 13Z, a VFR weather will be widespread over eastern Iowa and Illinois through late evening tonight, then some high clouds will be possible after 06z tonight, as showers and thunderstorms move through western and center Iowa. After 12Z Saturday, rain and some thunderstorms will begin moving over eastern Iowa.
Wind will be light through the next 24 hours.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Airport Reports
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Quad Cities, IA,
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