Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Hill, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Light lake effect snow is persisting with the cold northwest flow early this afternoon. Radar and water vapor imagery shows a decent shortwave moving through the Great Lakes with widespread light snowfall along it. This shortwave will move in late this afternoon and evening, with low level flow shifting from the current Northwest flow to West flow helping lift the lake effect snow band north into the Tug Hill. The shortwave itself will have enough lift to bring additional light snowfall to much of NY into Northeastern PA. Observed precipitation amounts in the upstream shortwave have been only a few hundredths of an inch.
With the light QPF expected, snowfall accumulations this afternoon and evening were kept under a half inch for higher elevations and a trace for lower elevations.

Behind this shortwave tomorrow, low and mid level ridging builds in. With the southwest flow, warmer air will slowly make its way back into the region. Tuesday is still on the cooler side as the air mass in the central US is cold but by Tuesday night, 850 temperatures will rise above average for the first time in a while.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday into Thursday, a ridge strengthens over the Northeast while a trough digs into the central plains. Trends in the models have been towards a more amplified trough that starts to become negatively tilted as it moves into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening SW flow will help boost temperatures into the upper 30s and 40s for Wednesday into Thursday. As the 850 winds increase to over 50 knots Thursday, winds have been increased by mixing in some of the NBM 90th percentile. Right now, low level stability in forecast soundings should limit the max gusts to under advisory criteria though in the downslope regions of the Finger Lakes with the SW flow, a few gusts to 40+ are possible.

As the trough moves through the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night, a surface low deepens down into the mid to low 980 mb range. A strong cold front associated with the low moves in late Thursday night with good warm air advection just ahead of it. It's likely that the temperatures overnight Thursday may be warmer than the temperatures during the day, potentially making a run for the upper 40s and even a few 50s in downsloping areas. Strong forcing along the front may lead to a squall line developing with strong wind gust along it as well as a brief period of heavier precipitation.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The long term looks to start off cold with the frontal passage on Thursday night along with some lake effect snowfall.
Ensembles and deterministic models show a fairly brief period of NW flow behind the front, with mid level ridging building in by Friday night into early Saturday. Lake effect snow that does occur looks to be fairly transient as well with low level flow going from mostly northerly to westerly ahead of the building ridge. Looking at 250 mb mean winds into the weekend and early next week, flow becomes fairly zonal with the jet stream centered over NY and PA. That means the flow will be fast, with frequent shortwaves leading to unpredictability this far out.
The long term also is not looking as cold as the lowest temperature anomalies retreat into the NW territories and Alaska into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An upper-level disturbance moving through the region will lead to a deck of mostly mid-to-high clouds this evening at all terminals. The clouds are expected to give way to clearing late tonight and VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period tomorrow. Winds are expected to remain southwesterly through much of the forecast period before starting to turn more south-southeasterly late, especially around RME, SYR and ITH.

Model soundings do suggest that there can be some southwesterly LLWS that develops near or just after the end of the TAF heading into Tuesday evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday evening through early Wednesday.. Mainly VFR; possible LLWS.

Wednesday.. MVFR Ceilings possible across portions of Central NY.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...Mainly VFR expected over the area.

Thursday Night into Friday...Strong frontal passage with rain showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers along with associated restrictions. LLWS likely Thursday into Thursday night.

Saturday...Snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.