Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 3:25 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest 5 to 10 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering north. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Friday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Saturday - East winds around 10 knots veering southwest, then veering north late in the day. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves less than 1 foot. Saturday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots backing northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 030603 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 203 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms into Friday

- Mild with several chances for showers/storms

UPDATE
Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Core of the instability has remained south of the forecast area this evening. With the loss of daytime heating, the instability has weakened and we do not expect a resurgence into the area tonight. The RAP model only shows 100-400 j/kg of MUCAPE overnight. So, we expect rain showers tonight with the potential of isolated thunderstorms. The HRRR continues to show pockets of heavier rain developing ahead of the cold front that will move in late from Wisconsin. Given the HRRR has been consistent in showing some half inch to one inch amounts there is a fairly high confidence in this occurring from MKG northeast through RQB and CAD especially. It will take much of the day on Friday for the front to clear southeast portions of the forecast area near JXN.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

- Showers and thunderstorms into Friday

An upper level wave in the Upper Plains will track into the Western Great Lakes tonight. It takes on a negative tilt as it does. At the same time a low level jet will be tracking northeastward through Western Lower MI, generating lower level lift. Elevated instability will be present and PWAT values climb to well above normal levels at around 1.5 inches. Given the moisture, deep lift and presence of instability, showers and thunderstorms will become numerous tonight. High res models suggest several pockets of higher wind gusts could evolve overnight, but most indications are that they may struggle to reach severe criteria. The latest HRRR indicates the storms developing around Chicago will build northeast and into our CWA later this afternoon and into the evening. We did increase POPs accordingly.

On Friday the front will be pushing eastward through the CWA by mid afternoon. Thus any shower/storm activity will decrease from west to east through the early to mid afternoon hours. At this time the instability is progged to be limited so severe weather is not anticipated.

- Mild with several chances for showers/storms

A persistent long wave trough over the Rockies will send a steady stream of short waves toward the Great Lakes through the period.
Southwest winds aloft will also ensure that warm air flows across the cwa. Highs will be in the 70s throughout the period and nudge up to the 80 degree mark over the southwestern cwa Tuesday and Wednesday.

Saturday will probably be dry. However, a short wave moving across the region may give us some showers and perhaps a storm Saturday night.

Sunday looks dry, then another stronger wave arrives Monday night.
Strong low pressure over the northern plains is progd to push a warm front north into the cwa late Monday night. We'll likely see showers and storms develop along/ahead of the warm front with more development ahead of the trailing occluded front Tuesday.

Showers are possible again Thursday as the Plains low finally moves over the state.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 203 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continuing overnight with the heavier cells producing occasional MVFR or IFR vsbys and briefly gusty winds. Otherwise generally high-base ceilings of 5000-8000 ft and vsbys aoa 6 miles.

Toward daybreak as the sfc cold front nears looks for lower MVFR to IFR cigs to arrive at MKG and GRR. This band of lower cigs with the front will continue spreading east through the morning and should impact each terminal for around 6 hours as scattered showers continue.

Conditions improving to VFR Friday afternoon after the cold frontal passage with winds shifting to the northwest around 10 kts. Will have to watch for the possibility of MVFR/IFR stratus forming later Friday night, especially south and east of GRR.

MARINE
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

With a low level jet track through the zones tonight the winds will be on the increase. They are currently progged to remain below criteria for small craft advisory so no headlines will be issued at this time. Outside of the winds increasing over the lake, gusty winds will accompany the showers and thunderstorms that track through Lower MI tonight.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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