Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugerties, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A stretch of dry and very pleasant weather through Friday before temperatures trend slightly above normal this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

We will enjoy a stretch of quiet weather through Saturday as broad and weak trough remains in place aloft with high pressure building at the sfc supporting very comfortable temperatures and low humidity. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be great opportunities to open the windows as ideal radiational cooling will support overnight temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s. Patchy fog will also likely develop in typically valley areas both night.

Temperatures trend slightly above normal this weekend with humidity levels also creeping upwards early next week as high pressure slides off shore and southwest flow advects a milder air mass northeastward. However, the probability for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees remains very low (under 20%) Sunday through Tuesday across eastern NY and western New England with HeatRisk also only in the "Minor" category. Weak troughing returns Sunday into early next week supporting slight chance and chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms each day through Wednesday.
There are signs for a stronger shortwave to swing into the Northeast in the Tuesday to Wednesday time period. While there is strong consensus among the ensemble guidance for measurable precipitation to occur across eastern NY and western New England both days, the probability for high rainfall amounts (greater than 1 inch in a 24hr period) remains very low.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00z/Friday, mainly VFR conditions are expected. However, patchy ground fog/low upslope clouds may develop at KPSF between 08Z-10Z/Thu before lifting around 13Z/Thu, with possible MVFR/IFR conditions. Also, can not rule out patchy ground fog at KGFL between 08Z/10Z/Thu with a few periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys possible. Otherwise, patchy clouds with Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL will gradually erode later tonight.

West to northwest winds 8-12 KT with a few gusts of 20-25 KT early this evening will become light/variable after midnight. On Thursday, winds will become west to northwest at 5-10 KT by late morning and continue through Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.