Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 1:58 PM

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LEZ041 Expires:202405030330;;509713 Fzus51 Kbuf 022101 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 501 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-030330- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 501 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
Tonight - North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KCTP 030652 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 252 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity continues for Friday as high pressure slides to the northeast.

-Unsettled starting Friday night with occasional showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rain will be Friday night in the west and Saturday in the southeast.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Previous discussion... Dry air covers the entire CWA, now with Td 33F at BFD and readings nearing 50F in the far SE. The upper high is right overhead and keeping even the high clouds at bay for now. There will be some high clouds move in from the west overnight, but not thick enough to affect the sfc temps. Expect mins in the m40s at BFD to the m50s in the SE as the wind goes calm in lots of places.

715 pm update... All remains quiet this evening, with very dry boundary layer air in place across the Commonwealth. Upstream satellite imagery and near-term model guidance shows a gradual influx of higher-level cloudiness later tonight into Friday morning, but that looks like about it. Some of our guidance is suggesting that an area of maritime low cloudiness could impinge on NJ and far eastern PA, but we think this lower cloud mass will very likely stay east of the Susquehanna Valley overnight and early Friday.

By daybreak, low temperatures should range from the mid 40s over the northern mountains, to the mid 50s over south-central PA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Sfc ridge slides E/NE on Fri, and moist return/srly flow brings dewpoints back into the u50s W and l50s E. Stability dips over the western mtns with TSRA popping by mid-aftn in the highest elevation of the Laurels and in the ANF/far NW. These should multiply and spread to the east through the night. Some of these could be moving slowly and PWAT will be 1.25" over the west by sunset. FFG is 1-1.5"/1hr in the west, and slightly higher east. Thus, there is a MRGL risk for excessive rainfall over the western third/half of the CWA due to potential for heavy rainfall. Have increased PoPs to likelies and low-end catg for Fri night for the SWrn half of the CWA

A slow moving frontal system combined with anomalous pwats will bring periods of rain to central PA this weekend. A few non- severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely along and west of the Alleghenies on the edge of warmer air surging into the upper Ohio Valley. The eastern slopes of the Alleghenies into the Susquehanna Valley will noticeably cooler with rain, low clouds and moist southeast flow. We trimmed max temps on Saturday due to the CAD pattern setup. Rain/showers continue on Sunday with highs recovering ~10F on the western and southern periphery of the CWA Despite the relatively high moisture available, overall stability should limit rain rates especially east of the mtns and preclude flooding risk. 48hr blended mean QPF ranges from 0.50-0.75" with spot amounts up to 1 inch possible.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The extended period will trend milder and remain unsettled with several chances for rain. A cold front will stall near or south of the MD line Monday and Tuesday before lifting to the northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to 50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps will trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s.

With several chances for rain next week along with persistent mild temperatures, green up should rapidly expand into northern PA thus ending the spring fire weather season. Additionally, there is no chance for frost or freeze conditions through the end of the week.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
00z update... VFR/unrestricted conditions should remain in place across central PA terminal sites into Friday evening. Confidence on this scenario is fairly high (70-90%).

Two potential flies in the ointment. First, an area of lower cloudiness backing in from the Atlantic across NJ and perhaps southeastern PA later tonight and early Friday. There is low (10-15%), but non-zero chance that these clouds reach KLNS for a brief time. If they did, fuel alternate or even IFR ceiling bases would be possible. Secondarily, an area of showers could reach the Allegheny Highlands late in the day Friday (as early as 21-22z) and perhaps bring fuel alternate-MVFR restrictions at KJST and KBFD. Once again, the threat is relatively low (10-20%), but certainly non-zero. The threat for MVFR cigs does increase substantially between 22z Fri and 02z Sat across the Laurels and Alleghenies, including JST, BFD, AOO, and UNV.

Light surface winds overnight (5 kt or less), will increase out of the SE to 5-10 kt Friday. Occasional gusts of around 20 kt could occur in the afternoon at KJST.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.

Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CLIMATE
Several records were tied or set on Thursday May 2nd: SITE OBSERVED TEMP PREVIOUS RECORD Altoona 87F 87 in 1954 Harrisburg 90F 88 in 1913 State College ??* 86 in 1938 Williamsport 89F 89 in 2018

*Official report from State College will be available Friday morning.

May 2nd was also the first 90F day at Harrisburg. It is the 13th earliest 90F day on record. The earliest 90F day occurred on April 17th in 1896 and 2002. The average first 90F day is June 1st.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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